UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC Perth - Della Maddalena vs Prates
The UFC is heading down under for a card in Perth, Australia, that is chock-full of intriguing matchups. We'll take a look at each bout across three platforms, including a wrestler who will attempt to topple an overachiever, and a welterweight looking to take one step closer to a title shot. Our betting lines come courtesy of the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Predictions to Consider on DraftKings
Themba Gorimbo ($7,000)
The betting market is far too excited about Jonathan Micallef, who was getting hit by nearly every shot Oban Elliott threw before "The Captain" brought the fight to the mat. Gorimbo is a willing combination puncher and has an active wrestling game that he should be able to use to keep Micallef off balance. Micallef has an active guard and is an opportunistic submission hunter, but Gorimbo should be able to pour on offense as long as he can keep himself safe in top position.
Dom Mar Fan ($7,400)
Kody Steele projects as a knockout-or-bust fighter, as he routinely swings at his opponent so hard he nearly falls over. Mar Fan is a solid boxer by comparison and looks to control fights with his grappling. Steele is a strong grappler in his own right, and we have seen Mar Fam get in trouble scrambling in the past, but I haven't seen enough from Steele to back him as a solid favorite against a good all-around fighter
Quillan Salkilld ($9,400)
It's too much to expect Salkilld to win a grappling match with Beneil Dariush, but the 36-year-old has looked very fragile of late, having been knocked out in three of his last four fights. The line on a KO here (-120) is a bit too steep for my liking, but we have enough room to make the Australian fighter viable in both GPPs and cash games, as his power and physicality should be enough to get this done in short order.
Wes Schultz ($7,700)
Schultz was miscast as an underdog darling against a knockout artist in Damian Pinas, but he gets a much easier test with newcomer Ben Johnston, who fights at such a measured pace that his opponent almost always dictates where the bout takes place. This low work rate has contributed to just one of Johnson's victories being via KO/TKO, despite his Muay Thai background. I expect Johnston to get too comfortable trying to play guard here, allowing Schultz to pile up points in top position.
Marwan Rahiki ($9,800)
This fight was added to the card too recently to have betting or pick lines, so consider this write-up more of a general recommendation. Rihiki is most famous for breaking the jaw of Harry Hardwick when the two met in March. He now gets an opponent with the ability to hurt him in exchanges, as newcomer Ollie Schmid has fast hands and throws with power. The issue is that Schmid is coming into the bout on less than a week's notice and spends far too much time with his back against the fence. It's not a good idea to let Rahiki roll downhill, and while the line on Schmid shouldn't be this wide, I can't trust that he will keep himself safe in this kind of firefight.
Steve Erceg ($9,300)
Tim Elliott's volume wrestling and submission ability make him a tempting underdog at this price. The issue is that Erceg has only been successfully outgrappled by divisional elite Alexandre Pantoja, and "Astroy Boy" is miles ahead of Elliott in terms of kickboxing. That makes this fight something of a squash match, in my view, as Erceg should be able to keep up in grappling exchanges before scoring heavily at range.
Cam Rowston ($8,900)
Robert Bryczek does great work to the body with power punches, but he will have a hard time finding the range against Rowston, who will enter this fight with a three-inch reach advantage. The Polish fighter will have his opportunities to hurt Rowston if he can close the distance, but I expect Rowston to control this fight in the clinch when Bryczek overextends.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider on PrizePicks
Louie Sutherland UNDER 16.5 Significant Strikes, and Shamil Gaziev OVER 14.5 Significant Strikes
Sutherland only fights at one speed, barreling across the cage with big strikes as soon as the opening bell sounds. Tai Tuivasa withstood a prolonged grappling attack to see the scorecards in his last fight, but Sutherland will be open to be knocked out if he doesn't completely take control of the fight in the first minute.
Gaziev is one of the more methodical strikers at heavyweight, pressuring opponents and pawing with his jab to set up the fight-ending sequence. Brando Pericic doesn't mind fighting with his back to the cage and has yet to be knocked out in seven professional fights. This should allow Gaziev to get ahead on strikes before any fireworks take place.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool
UFC Bets to Consider
Vince Morales Wins via submission (+650)
Morales hasn't had a win since re-entering the organization in 2024, but the two-time UFC veteran has shown signs of life lately, using a pressure boxing style to frustrate opponents and threatening with submissions when they decide to take the fight to the ground. This should work wonders against Colby Thicknesse, who tends to back himself to the fence before attempting to bring the fight to the floor. Morales has notched a submission in each of his last two victories and was credited with five attempts in his last two fights. That makes this line well worth taking a shot at.
Jacob Malkoun Wins in Round 1 (+215)
Gerald Meerschaert landed a grand total of three significant strikes before losing by first-round stoppage in each of his last two fights. The lumbering, defenseless style of "GM3" shouldn't yield anything better against Malkoun, who can employ a solid boxing game along with his grappling. The athleticism gap between these two fighters will be something to behold, making this one live for a Quick Win bonus on DraftKings after the first few exchanges.
Carlos Prates Wins via KO/TKO (+165)
Jack Della Maddalena employs a specific style against lanky fighters, which calls for him to force his way in the pocket and throw big shots. This has yielded mixed results, with the former title challenger catching and finishing Randy Brown but getting outstruck and escaping with a split decision against Kevin Holland. Prates is far more dynamic and powerful than either of those men and should be able to circle back to the center of the cage and keep range with jabs and push kicks. I expect this dynamic to repeat itself until "JDM" becomes frustrated and opens himself up for the fight-altering shot.
Junior Tafa Wins in Round 1 (+175)
Kevin Christian looked like a deer in headlights before being dropped by Billy Elekana in his UFC debut, and Tafa tends to do his best work early. Christian will be in control if this fight hits the ground, but with no real wrestling game to speak of, it's hard to see him getting the upper hand before Tafa swarms with offense.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Perth. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section
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