UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC Baku - Fiziev vs. Torres
The UFC takes a trip to Azerbaijan for a 13-fight card featuring several live underdogs. We'll take a look at each bout across three platforms, including an explosive bantamweight with power in his hands, and a flyweight looking to propel himself into the title picture. Our betting lines this week come courtesy of the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Kaan Ofli ($7,800)
Javier Reyes's style has a distinctly regional feel, as his size likely allowed him to march forward with his hands down and intimidate opponents. This mentality almost got him knocked out against a 40-year-old Douglas Silva de Andrade, and Ofli will consistently apply pressure in search of takedowns. Ofli may not carry the stopping power of someone like Andrade, but he will put Reyes through a grueling fight if "Blair" can't find an early finish.
Ikram Aliskerov ($9,100)
Aliskerov is putting his knockout loss to Robert Whittaker further in the rear-view mirror with each performance, using his agility, wrestling, and sick striking to control opponents. Brunno Ferreira has enough power to stop any middleweight in their tracks, but I expect the Dagestani fighter to dictate terms with his jab before turning to his wrestling, as Abus Magomedov was able to ground "The Hulk" four times before submitting him in 2024.
Nazim Sadykhov ($9,000)
Sadykhov struggled mightily with the length and grappling ability of Fares Ziam, but gets a good bounce-back opportunity against Matheus Camilo. While he will wrestle, Camilo is nowhere near the level of control grappler as Ziam, which should allow Sadykhov to keep his feet or get ahead in scrambles. Ultimately, Sadykhov should look to stay at range, where he can use his fast hands and power to hurt Camilo as he looks for the perfect strike.
Charles Johnson ($7,300)
Johnson's slow starts have been his undoing lately, as he tends to get hit hard early, making his success reliant on whether he can recover. There should be no such issue against Asu Almabayev, who's striking can charitably be called a means to initiate his wrestling. Johnson has worked hard on his wrestling defense and is now a strong scrambler who hasn't been taken down more than once since his fight with Azat Maksum in 2024. I also wouldn't be surprised if "InnerG" tries to initiate his own takedowns, as Almabayev holds a defense rate of just 44 percent.
Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev ($9,500)
Yakhyaev's chaotic style will likely see him bump into a wall at some point, but I wouldn't expect it to happen against Julius Walker, who looks to initiate wrestling sequences as soon as possible. Walker is extremely unlikely to outgrapple Yakyhyaev, and stands so upright while in space that it would hardly be surprising if "Hunter" found his chin.
Jefferson Nascimento ($7,900)
Nascimento and Tahir Abdullaev are as evenly matched as their salaries imply, but I give a slight lean towards the Brazilian for his speed and aggression. Abdullaev likes to use his footwork to keep himself safe in striking exchanges, but Nascimento's jiu-jitsu should work to neutralize the grappling of "Tank," leaving him with an advantage at range.
Daniil Donchenko ($9,500)
Theodor Berggren has a nice jab that could initially give Donchenko problems, but the speed and power difference here should be more than enough to make up for any technical advantage. Brerggren's ideal fight is a measured kickboxing match where he can feel an opponent out, but Donchenko will not oblige, peppering the lanky fighter with leg kicks and body shots until the bout ends.
Farman Hasanov ($8,400)
Eric Nolan features such a nice variety of strikes that I almost picked him against the debutante, but I ultimately think Hasanov's grappling is going to be too much, as he is much more insistent about bringing the fight to the ground than someone like Baisangur Susurkaev, who was able to submit Nolan shortly after putting him on the floor.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider on PrizePicks
Michel Pereira OVER 41.5 Significant Strikes, and Andrey Pulyaev UNDER 32.5 Significant Strikes
With his movement-heavy style and solid 71 percent takedown defense, Shara Magomedov tends to draw fighters into slow-paced kickboxing matches. I expect Pereira to be on his front foot against a retreating "Bullet" for most of the fight, which should help him rack up significant strikes.
Both Pulyaev and Nursulton Ruziboev generally benefit from being the taller fighter, but with just one inch separating them, neither will be able to control distance. I expect early exchanges to produce a collision between two fighters with 19 combined knockout wins, which should lead to a finish.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool
UFC Bets to Consider
Bekzat Almakhan Wins via KO/TKO (+360)
We have seen Almakhan struggle with wrestlers, but Jean Matsumoto's constant forward pressure has led to him eating a whopping 5.41 significant strikes per minute. Almakhan is too fast and powerful for an opponent to march headlong into strikes, and I have to imagine that another camp devoted to wrestling defense will produce improvements when it comes to Bekzat staying on his feet.
Manuel Torres Wins via KO/TKO (+145)
An inability to pull the trigger characterized Rafael Fiziev's performance against Mauricio Ruffy, as the Russian fighter almost waited for his Brazilian counterpart to find the perfect shot while backed against the cage. Against Torres, Fiziev will again face height and reach disadvantages while having to contend with a devastating and accurate puncher.
Michal Oleksiejczuk Wins via KO/TKO (+185)
The bout between Oleksiejczuk and Abus Magomedov is truly binary in terms of outcome, as we are left to decide whether an Oleksiejczuk knockout or Magomedov submission will occur first. The issue is that Magomedov has been shown in bouts against Sean Strickland and Joe Pyfer to have one round of grappling in him before he becomes a stationary target in front of his opponent. "Lord" has shown better takedown defense of late and should have the speed and power to hurt Abus in the first few exchanges.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for Baku. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section
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