UFC Baku DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
Discover the top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC Baku on Saturday. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Lightweight
Rafael Fiziev (13-5-0) v. Manuel Torres (17-3-0)
DK Salaries: Fiziev ($8,200), Torres ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Fiziev (-110), Torres (+110)
This will be the UFC's second visit to Azerbaijan, so it's only fitting Fiziev will headline the card. He fought Ignacio Bahamondes there last June, winning via unanimous decision. Sadly, that is Fiziev's only win in his past five fights. Granted, two of those setbacks came against current UFC Lightweight Champion Justin Gaethje and the other against a legitimate top contender in Mauricio Ruffy. Now 33 years old, I think there's an overwhelming chance we've already seen the best Fiziev has to offer inside the Octagon, but he's still capable of performing and makes sense in overseas spots such as this one.
Torres earned his UFC opportunity with a knockout win on Dana White's Contender Series back in October 2021. He's had six official fights with the company, going 5-1. All five of the wins have come via stoppage (four knockouts, one submission) while the one setback, oddly enough, was a first-round knockout loss to Bahamondes. Torres has earned Performance of the Night bonuses for all five of the victories.
If you play "MMA math", Fiziev should win this fight easily considering he took care of Bahamondes without issue, while Torres was finished by him early on. Obviously, things aren't that simple.
Fiziev is known as a high-level striker. He's a former professional kickboxer, with nearly 50 professional fights in that discipline.
While it all sounds good on paper, the fact of the matter is Fiziev gets hit (4.84 significant strikes absorbed per minute) more than he lands (4.71 per minute). Those are highly concerning numbers for an aging fighter that makes his living on the feet. It tells me that the end could come quickly for Fiziev is there's an substantial dip in things such as hand or foot speed.
Torres, as we've seen, has massive, fight-altering power. He's extremely explosive, particularly in short bursts, and he's surprisingly accurate considering he is looking to take your head off with every single blow.
He's also going to have a two-inch edge in both height and reach on Fiziev.
The prettier this fight looks, the more it favors the crowd favorite. If it turns into a car crash, Torres should have the edge.
Ultimately, I'd prefer to back what we may see from Torres moving forward as opposed to what we have seen from Fiziev in the past. Either way, the fight is correctly lined as a pick 'em.
THE PICK: Torres
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Co-Main Event - Middleweight
Shara Magomedov (16-1-0) v. Michel Pereira (32-14-0, 2NC)
DK Salaries: Magomedov ($9,200), Pereira ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Magomedov (-355), Pereira (+280)
The UFC has booked Magomedov in exclusively overseas fights since his October 2023 company debut. The results have been largely positive, as Shara is 5-1, with a couple knockouts and three unanimous decisions to show for it. He was due to face Paulo Costa last November, in what would have been Magomedov's more high-profile fight by a country mile, but he ended up withdrawing due to a nose issue.
The promotion has never even attempted to book Shara in North America. It's pure speculation on my part, but he has an issue with one of his eyes, and I'm wondering if he'd have a problem getting cleared. The only reason I bring it up is because it's going to be difficult for him to move up the rankings unless he comes stateside. The company simply doesn't hold enough events in Europe and the Middle East.
Pereira is impossible to figure out, and I've largely given up trying. The is a guy that won eight straight bouts from September 2020 to May 2024, only to follow it up with a three-fight losing streak. He got back on track against Zachary Reese in February via split decision, but even that was a lousy performance that almost certainly should have gone in Reese's favor. The 32-year-old could easily be riding a four-fight losing streak, in which case he probably would have been released.
I've long claimed that Magomedov's ceiling is limited, and I'm sticking by that.
He lands a ton on the feet, averaging a whopping 5.93 significant strikes per minute, but it's most certainly volume over power. The fact he has a doesn't career wins via knockout isn't representative of the thunder, or lack there of, in his hands.
Magomedov isn't all that responsible defensively, but it's his lack of a grappling game that's a real concern. He has yet to land a single takedown in his UFC run. If the chin of his opponent holds up and they are able to come close to matching him in terms of volume, he's going to be in trouble.
On the flip side, Michel will land a takedown here and there, but he typically doesn't do much from top position. He certainly isn't a smothering wrestler by any means.
Pereira has landed 88 or more significant strikes four times during his UFC run, but the last time came back in May 2022. He's prone to getting outworked, and I don't trust his fight IQ in the least, meaning Magomedov can probably win this fight on optics alone.
Stay busy, don't get clipped with one huge shot, and keep pushing forward.
I just don't see how you can pick Pereira against anyone even halfway decent given how inconsistent he is.
I'm not the biggest Magomedov supporter out there, but he works and stays busy. As long as he doesn't get clipped with one big shot, I don't see how he doesn't take a decision.
THE PICK: Magomedov
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Flyweight
Asu Almabayev (23-3-0) v. Charles Johnson (19-8-0)
DK Salaries: Almabayev ($8,900), Johnson ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Almabayev (-260), Johnson (+210)
Almabayev lost two fights in a row back in January and April of 2017. He's lost just once since, and that was in March of last year against Manel Kape, a guy that is closing in on a title shot at 125 pounds after a fourth-straight knockout win last week. He's won his other six UFC bouts against reasonable names such as Alex Perez and Ode Osbourne. He's a top-10 guy already, and I wouldn't rule out Almabayev cracking the top-five at some point.
Johnson, on the other hand, is nearly as difficult to get a read on as Pereira above. The 35-year-old is 2-2 in his past four fights, with his most recent win over Bruno Silva in March coming via split decision. The thing Johnson has going for him is that he has knockout wins over UFC Flyweight Champion Joshua Van and top young contender Lone'er Kavanagh within the past two years. The Kavanagh win came less than a year ago. So while Charles is struggling frequently and maddeningly inconsistent, he has the notable victories everyone is looking for.
Almabayev is 5-foot-4, so even in the lightest weight class the UFC offers, he's giving up a ton of size just about every single time he steps into the Octagon. Johnson is 5-foot-9 and also enters with a five-inch reach edge.
Of course, if Asu is forced to stand and trade with his opposition, he's probably already finished.
This is a guy that is entirely reliant on his wrestling game for success. Almabayev averages 4.46 takedowns per 15 minutes while landing 42 percent of his shots. He's very good at getting to the hips of his opposition.
On the flip side, we've seen Charles really struggle to remain upright in the past. That said, most of his really poor performances in terms of not being able to defend a takedown came very early in his UFC run. He's going to be tested here cause Almabayev knows only one way to fight.
Almabayev would be the choice if this thing was anything close to a pick 'em, but it's not. Johnson's advantage on the feet is real. Charles is at real risk of getting grounded for the better part of 15 minutes and dropping a decision in the process, but I don't see in the world there is a $1,600 difference in salary between these two.
On a card in which I like very few underdogs outright, Johnson feels like one worthy of a dice roll.
THE PICK: Johnson
Middleweight
Abus Magomedov (28-7-1) v. Michal Oleksiejczuk (22-9-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Magomedov ($8,300), Oleksiejczuk ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Magomedov (-135), Oleksiejczuk (+115)
Magomedov has gone 4-3 since joining the UFC roster back in September 2022. The main thing he has going for him is that his three defeats have come against some of the best in the division in Sean Strickland, Caio Borralho and Joe Pyfer. The Strickland fight in particular Magomedov dominated for a round-plus before badly gassing and getting knocked out. Set to turn 36 years old in September, there's no real reason to think Magomedov is set to go on any sort of run, but the fact he's only losing to the best guys has to be considered a positive in some sense.
Oleksiejczuk lost three straight from March to August 2024 and looked like an obvious release candidate. The UFC gave him another chance and Oleksiejczuk responded by moving his training camp to Brazil with the Fighting Nerds and he has responded with three straight wins since. Granted, the victories are over Marc-Andre Barriault, Gerald Meerschaert and Sedriques Dumas, so expectations need to be kept in check, but Michal's roster spot should now be secure for the foreseeable future.
I've seen nothing in Magomedov's past body of work to suggest he's all that competent on the feet, but he does have an ideal frame for the middleweight division at 6-foot-4 and he can definitely grapple.
Abus averages 2.61 takedowns per 15 minutes while landing a whopping 59 percent of his attempts. Of course, he has lousy cardio, so wrestling for the better part of 15 minutes is going to lead to him gassing out sooner than later.
Oleksiejczuk has always been talented. He has 16 career wins via knockout, and the power is absolutely legitimate.
His biggest improvement since joining the Nerds is that he seems to be picking his spots better. In the past he would fight foolishly instead of taking his time and searching for openings. Some positive game planning has gone a long way in raising both Oleksiejczuk's floor and ceiling. He somehow won't turn 32 years of age until next February.
This could end up being a foolish pick if it turns out Oleksiejczuk's improvements were only the result of facing lower-end competition, but I'm a believer. At least to some extent.
I don't think Michal is a legitimate title contender by any means, but I do think he's capable of going on the road and pulling a slight upset against a guy like Magomedov, who has plenty of warts himself.
THE PICK: Oleksiejczuk
Other Bouts
Lightweight
Nazim Sadykhov (11-2-1) v. Matheus Camilo (10-3-0)
DK Salaries: Sadykhov ($9,000), Camilo ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Sadykhov (-245), Camilo (+200)
THE PICK: Sadykhov
Middleweight
Ikram Aliskerov (17-2-0) v. Brunno Ferreira (15-3-0)
DK Salaries: Aliskerov ($9,100), Ferreira ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Aliskerov (-305), Ferreira (+245)
THE PICK: Aliskerov
Welterweight
Farman Hasanov (5-0-0) v. Eric Nolan (8-4-0)
DK Salaries: Hasanov ($8,600), Nolan ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Hasanov (-175), Nolan (+145)
THE PICK: Hasanov
Light Heavyweight
Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev (9-0-0) v. Julius Walker (7-2-0)
DK Salaries: Yakhyaev ($9,500), Walker ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Yakhyaev (-550), Walker (+410)
THE PICK: Yakhyaev
Middleweight
Nursulton Ruziboev (36-9-2, 2NC) v. Andrey Pulyaev (10-4-0)
DK Salaries: Ruziboev ($8,800), Pulyaev ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Ruziboev (-220), Pulyaev (+180)
THE PICK: Ruziboev
Featherweight
Kaan Ofli (14-4-1) v. Javier Reyes (23-5-0)
DK Salaries: Ofli ($7,700), Reyes ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Ofli (+140), Reyes (-170)
THE PICK: Ofli
Welterweight
Daniil Donchenko (14-2-0) v. Theodor Berggren (8-3-0)
DK Salaries: Donchenko ($9,400), Berggren ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Donchenko (-500), Berggren (+380)
THE PICK: Donchenko
Bantamweight
Bekzat Almakhan (12-3-0) v. Jean Matsumoto (17-2-0)
DK Salaries: Almakhan ($7,800), Matsumoto ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Almakhan (+130), Matsumoto (-155)
THE PICK: Matsumoto
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
