The UFC returns to the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Saturday, June 20, for UFC Vegas 119. In the main event, flyweight contenders have a rematch nearly nine years in the making, as Manel Kape takes on Kyoji Horiguchi. The two fought in RIZIN in December of 2017, and it was Horiguchi who won by third-round submission.
Below, I'll share my UFC Vegas 119 predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop, and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC Vegas 119 Betting Favorite
Manel Kape (22-7) vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (36-5) - Flyweight
In the main event of UFC Vegas 119 on Saturday, I like Manel Kape to avenge his loss to Kyoji Horiguchi and get a big win.
Kape has won three straight fights and is coming off a first-round knockout win over Brandon Royval, which was impressive. Horiguchi, meanwhile, is 2-0 since returning to the UFC, but I think Kape's striking will be the difference.
I like Kape to be able to keep this fight standing and land the better shots, and even possibly score a TKO win in the third or fourth round. We've seen Horiguchi get rocked before, and Kape has insane power at flyweight, so he should get a win to secure the next title shot.
UFC Vegas 119 Bet: Manel Kape (-162)
UFC Vegas 119 Underdog
Andre Fili (25-13) vs. Vinicius Oliveira (23-4) - Featherweight
For my underdog play at UFC Vegas 119, I'm taking a shot on Andre Fili, as I believe the odds are too high on Oliveira, whom I haven't been sold on.
Fili is a tough out, as he arguably should've beaten Jose Delgado last time out, which would have been a big upset. Oliveira, meanwhile, is moving up to featherweight after he was dominated by Mario Bautista last time out.
If Fili can survive the early onslaught by Oliveira, I believe he can win the second and third rounds to edge out a decision. There is a chance Oliveira can catch him early, but I trust Fili and his veteran savviness to avoid the power shots and be able to grind this fight out and edge out a decision.
At +230, the odds make this worth a shot. To me, Oliveira should only be around a -170 favorite (and not -285).
UFC Vegas 119 Bet: Andre Fili (+230)
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UFC Vegas 119 Prop Bet
Christian Rodriguez (12-4) vs. Hyder Amil (11-2) - Featherweight
Also on the main card of UFC Vegas 119, I'm taking Christian Rodriguez to defeat Hyder Amil by decision.
Rodriguez has lost back-to-back fights and is 1-3 in his last four, but this is a good matchup for him to get back on track. Amil has a so-so takedown defense of 65 percent, so I expect Rodriguez to wrestle early and often, especially in the first round, to avoid the power shots and wear out Amil.
Rodriguez isn't much of a finisher, as four of his five UFC wins have come by decision. Meanwhile, in Amil's last fight, he dropped a decision to Jamall Emmers in a fight in which he was taken down seven times.
I expect Rodriguez to be able to take Amil down at will and be able to grind out a clear-cut decision. I don't think he'll take many risks here, as with a loss, he could be cut.
UFC Vegas 119 Bet: Christian Rodriguez by decision (+125)
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UFC Vegas 119 Parlay
Navajo Stirling (9-0) vs. Ion Cutelaba (20-11-1) - Light heavyweight
Michael Aswell Jr. (11-4) vs. Gaston Bolanos (8-5) - Featherweight
For my parlay at UFC Vegas 119, I'm taking Navajo Stirling and Michael Aswell Jr. to get their hands raised.
In the co-main event, Stirling takes on Cutelaba at light heavyweight, in what appears to be a bit of a set-up fight for the Kiwi. Although Stirling is 4-0 in the UFC, he hasn't impressed me. I will fade him when he gets a better opponent, but Cutelaba isn't that. Stirling is a technical striker who should be able to pick Cutelaba apart for three rounds or until he gets a TKO win to keep his perfect record intact.
In the other leg, I like Aswell to beat Gaston Bolanos on the prelims. I'm not that high on Aswell, or Bolanos, as I'm not sure either is UFC-caliber. Yet, this is a good matchup for Aswell to edge out a decision win. Aswell throws more volume on the feet, and that should be the difference. He'll be more active and land more damaging shots to win a decision.
UFC Vegas 119 Bet: Navajo Stirling & Michael Aswell Jr. parlay (-164)
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UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC Vegas 119 card.
- Manel Kape (-162)
- Andre Fili (+230)
- Christian Rodriguez by decision (+125)
- Navajo Stirling & Michael Aswell Jr. parlay (-164)
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