Julio Rodriguez

Rodriguez followed up his excellent rookie season with an even more productive sophomore season, excelling in all five scoring categories on his way to finishing as the eighth-most valuable fantasy player in standard formats in 2023. Rodriguez was the only player in the American League to hit at least 30 homers, score and drive in over 100, while also stealing more than 30 bags while Ronald Acuna bested him in every category overall. That said, the youngster is still prone to slumps. He hit below .250 in three of the six months and just three of his homers and 21 of his RBI came in high-leverage situations. A monster second half got him to his final numbers, and he really caught his stride once he was left in the second spot of the lineup behind J.P. Crawford's on-base percentage. You should expect more of the same from Rodriguez in 2024 with fewer slumps in between bursts of awesomeness as he continues to mature as a hitter.

A strong spring from Rodriguez forced Seattle to break camp with him as their centerfielder. He did not disappoint, capturing the AL Rookie of the Year award. Rodriguez's season could have been even better as he improved over the second half, but wrist and back issues limited him to 41 games after the break. Rodriguez's exit velocity, hard-hit rate, barrel percentage and speed were all at least 90th percentile. His 25.9 percent strikeout rate and 7.1 percent walk rate could use some work, but that should come as the 22-year-old continues to develop. While it's fair to point out Rodriguez swiped 21 bags in his first 82 games but then stole only four bases in his final 52 contests, playing hurt could have slowed him down as he initially jammed his wrist sliding, so he may have just been cautious the rest of the season. Rodriguez merits top-five overall consideration, with a salient argument for him to be the first player off the board.

There have been good No. 1 overall prospects and great ones. Rodriguez falls into the latter camp. He passes the eye test and his statistics measure up. Young for every level he has played at, Rodriguez's worst showing was a 145 wRC+ and .293/.359/.490 slash line as an 18-year-old at Low-A in 2019. He has a patient approach and thunder in his bat to all fields. His speed and aggressiveness on the bases has ticked up to the point that he comfortably projects to steal double-digit bags. The only thing to nitpick is Rodriguez's 54.5 GB% at Double-A, but given that he was 20 years old and still slugged .546 at that level, it would be shortsighted to focus on that. Seattle brazenly prevented him from climbing too high last season by initially sending him to High-A -- a level he excelled at back in 2019 -- so we shouldn't expect them to promote him to the majors when he earns the call. That makes him a volatile option for redraft leagues and draft-and-holds, as he could realistically debut in April, May, June or July, and if he gets hurt early in the year, a 2022 debut isn't assured. In dynasty leagues, however, he is a blue chipper to build around.

In 2019, Rodriguez established himself as a top five prospect for dynasty leagues, but 2020 was a bit of a lost season. On a rebuilding team and with zero experience above High-A, he wasn't going to debut in a 60-game season, but he also suffered a hairline fracture in his left wrist that prevented him from doing much at the alternate site. However, once the fall instructional league began, Rodriguez reminded everyone why he is the top prospect in a burgeoning Mariners system and a top three prospect in baseball. He routinely posted exit velocities north of 110 mph, which is elite, and particularly impressive for a 19-year-old who was returning from a wrist injury. Rodriguez played in the Dominican winter league and should spend the bulk of spring training in big-league camp. He projects as a huge plus in AVG, OBP and HR while adding 8-12 steals. An MLB debut this summer is possible if he forces the issue.

For Rodriguez, the normal rules do not apply. He went from the Dominican Summer League in 2018 straight to the Midwest League in 2019. That never happens. A 6-foot-4 18-year-old up against men who were 3.5 years older on average, he logged a 145 wRC+ and .198 ISO before getting promoted to High-A. He was somehow better there, cutting his K% from 22.4 to 13.9 while doing even more damage (.277 ISO). His 40.0 Hard% between the two stops put him in the company of Quad-A hitters using the juiced ball in the Pacific Coast League. As the youngest hitter in the Arizona Fall League, he hit .288/.397/.365 with a 10:8 K:BB and made a point of putting his surprising speed to work, going 4-for-5 on stolen-base attempts. While the other top AFL hitters focused on pulling the ball out in batting practice, he was hitting home runs to the opposite field with ease. A true phenom, Rodriguez is on the fast track to stardom.

The 2017 July 2 international signing class appears to be one of the better ones in recent years, and Rodriguez is a big reason why. A 6-foot-3, 180-pound right fielder with a fantasy-over-reality profile, he received a $1.75 million bonus on the strength of his monster raw power and potential for a plus hit tool. That upside was on full display in the Dominican Summer League, where he logged a 161 wRC+, .210 ISO, 11.8 BB% and 15.7 K%. A right-handed hitter, he obviously mashed lefties (1.005 OPS), but his .899 OPS against same-handed pitchers suggests he could be an everyday player. It is dangerous to get too caught up in DSL statistics, as the quality of competition is extremely low -- Rodriguez was 17 and wasn't even one of the 15 youngest hitters in the league. However, he confirmed the scouting report in his pro debut, meaning he has already been scooped up in serious dynasty leagues that allow in-season pickups.