Top DFS Picks and Strategies for UFC Baku
MMA DFS picks for this weekend's UFC Baku card are live. Included in this preview are profiles for each fighter and breakdowns of my DFS strategy for every bout on the card. Welcome to Drake's Takes.
UFC Vegas 19 Picks & Career Results:
2026 Overall Picks: 176-71-2
2025 Overall Picks: 345-152-2
DFS Lock of the Week: Torres
Fanduel Captain: Torres/Sadykhov
Rafael Fiziev (13-5-0) v. Manuel Torres (17-3-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 13-5 (8 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Elite striker with outstanding kickboxing credentials and technical ability
- Has struggled recently, losing four of his last five fights and suffering multiple stoppage losses
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 17-3 (9 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)
- Hyper-aggressive finisher with dangerous power and submission skills
- Constantly pressures forward and looks to end fights early
DFS Perspective:
The name value and technical advantages still favor Fiziev, but it's becoming difficult to ignore the recent results. Losing four of five fights, including being knocked out twice, raises legitimate concerns about his durability and where he currently stands in the division. Torres is exactly the type of fighter who can capitalize on those issues. He pushes a relentless pace, throws with bad intentions and is always hunting a finish. If Fiziev cannot withstand the early pressure, Torres could do major damage and score a statement win. I'll lean Torres to continue the trend and overwhelm Fiziev early.
UFC Baku Pick: Torres
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Michel Pereira (32-14-0) v. Shara Magomedov (16-1-0)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 32-14 (11 KO/TKO, 8 submissions)
- Explosive athlete with dangerous striking, grappling, and finishing ability
- Unpredictable style can overwhelm opponents when he fights disciplined
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16-1 (12 KO/TKO)
- Elite striker with outstanding creativity and knockout power
- Dangerous at all ranges and constantly looking to create damaging moments
DFS Perspective:
This should be one of the most entertaining fights on the card. Pereira is the more well-rounded fighter and likely has the grappling advantage, but Shara is the cleaner and more dangerous striker. Pereira has also shown durability concerns at times when facing elite power. If this fight stays standing for extended periods, I trust Shara to land the bigger shots and create the more impactful moments. Shara profiles as the preferred side, but this is the type of fight that could produce a slate-breaking score regardless of who wins.
UFC Baku Pick: Magomedov
Nazim Sadykhov (11-2-1) v. Matheus Camilo (10-3-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 11-2-1 (8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Aggressive pressure fighter with excellent cardio and finishing instincts
- Thrives in high-paced fights and constantly forces opponents to work
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-3 (4 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Well-rounded prospect with solid striking and grappling fundamentals
- Dangerous in scrambles and capable of winning fights in multiple ways
DFS Perspective:
This looks like a strong spot for Sadykhov. Camilo is a talented prospect, but Sadykhov's pace, pressure and experience against UFC-level competition should be the difference. Fighting in front of a home crowd only adds to the appeal. If Sadykhov pushes his usual pace and forces extended exchanges, he should be able to break Camilo down and pull away as the fight progresses. Sadykhov profiles as one of the stronger plays on the slate.
UFC Baku Pick: Sadykhov
Asu Almabayev (23-3-0) v. Charles Johnson (19-8-0)
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 23-3 (3 KO/TKO, 10 submissions)
- Relentless wrestler with excellent pace and control
- Most effective when chaining takedowns together and forcing opponents to defend constantly
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 19-8 (7 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- High-volume striker with strong cardio and improving takedown defense
- Has quietly developed into one of the more reliable flyweights on the roster
DFS Perspective:
This is a much tougher matchup for Almabayev than it may appear on paper. Johnson has continued to improve and has become very difficult to control for long stretches. While Almabayev's wrestling will always give him a path to victory, Johnson's pace, volume and defensive improvements make him a legitimate threat to spoil those plans. My slight lean is to Almabayev due to the wrestling advantage, but Johnson is very live as an underdog. This fight could be much closer than the odds suggest.
UFC Baku Pick: Almabayev
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Brunno Ferreira (15-3-0) v. Ikram Aliskerov (17-2-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15-3 (9 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Violent finisher with massive power and dangerous submission ability
- Almost every fight turns into a kill-or-be-killed affair
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 17-2 (7 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Well-rounded fighter with strong wrestling, grappling, and technical striking
- Usually controls where the fight takes place and minimizes mistakes
DFS Perspective:
This is one of the most volatile fights on the card. Ferreira is always live for an early knockout and possesses some of the biggest power in the division. However, Aliskerov is the more complete fighter and has clear advantages in wrestling, technique and overall fight IQ. If Aliskerov avoids the early chaos, he should be able to take control of the fight and steadily break Ferreira down. Slight lean Aliskerov, but this is a fight worth targeting because a finish feels very likely.
UFC Baku Pick: Aliskerov
Abus Magomedov (28-7-1) v. Michal Oleksiejczuk (22-9-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 28-7-1 (14 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)
- Well-rounded middleweight with dangerous striking and a strong grappling base
- Most effective when mixing takedowns with his offense on the feet
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 22-9 (16 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Aggressive boxer with heavy hands and excellent pressure
- Dangerous whenever he can keep fights standing and force exchanges
DFS Perspective:
This should be a competitive fight with both men having clear paths to victory. Oleksiejczuk is the more dangerous pure striker and will look to make this a firefight, but Magomedov has the more complete skill set overall. The grappling advantage is the key factor here and gives Magomedov additional ways to score and control the fight. Slight lean Magomedov due to his wrestling and ability to dictate where the fight takes place.
UFC Baku Pick: Magomedov
Farman Hasanov (5-0-0) v. Eric Nolan (8-4-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 5-0 (4 KO/TKO)
- Undefeated prospect with aggressive striking and strong finishing instincts
- Continues to improve and has shown confidence fighting forward
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-4 (4 KO/TKO, 2 submission)
- Athletic fighter with solid power and willingness to exchange
- Has shown flashes offensively but has struggled against stronger competition
DFS Perspective:
Hasanov is still relatively untested, but this appears to be a favorable matchup for him. Fighting at home and carrying an undefeated record, he should have confidence coming into this one. Nolan has some power and can be dangerous if given the chance, but Hasanov looks like the cleaner, more polished fighter overall. Lean Hasanov to continue his rise and pick up another win.
UFC Baku Pick: Hasanov
Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev (9-0-0) v. Julius Walker (7-2-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9-0 (3 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Undefeated prospect with a strong wrestling foundation and well-rounded skill set
- Excels at controlling fights and forcing opponents to work at his pace
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7-2 (4 KO/TKO, 2 submission)
- Athletic striker with solid power and finishing ability
- Most effective when he can keep fights standing and dictate range
DFS Perspective:
This looks like a strong spot for Yakhyaev. Walker has physical tools and power, but Yakhyaev appears to be the more complete fighter and should have a clear advantage in the grappling department. If he is able to secure takedowns consistently, he can control large portions of the fight and potentially find a finish. Yakhyaev profiles as one of the stronger prospects on the card with solid DFS upside.
UFC Baku Pick: Yakhyaev
Nursulton Ruziboev (36-9-2) v. Andrey Pulyaev (10-4-0)
- Height: 6'5" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 36-9-2 (13 KO/TKO, 20 submissions)
- Extremely dangerous finisher with a rare combination of size, power, and grappling ability
- Owns one of the most diverse finishing arsenals in the division
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 10-4 (6 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Long striker with solid power and good movement
- Most effective when he can keep fights standing and work behind his range
DFS Perspective:
This feels like a difficult matchup for Pulyaev. Ruziboev has advantages almost everywhere and brings far more experience against quality opposition. Whether he chooses to strike or grapple, he has paths to dominate this fight. Pulyaev is dangerous enough to make things interesting early, but Ruziboev's finishing ability and overall skill set make him the clear side. Ruziboev profiles as one of the stronger plays on the card with significant finish upside.
UFC Baku Pick: Ruziboev
Kaan Ofli (13-4-1) v. Javier Reyes (23-5-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13-4-1 (2 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- High-paced fighter with solid wrestling and strong cardio
- Most effective when he can pressure opponents and mix in takedowns
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 23-5 (11 KO/TKO, 8 submissions)
- Experienced finisher with dangerous striking and solid all-around skills
- Comfortable fighting at a high pace and creating damage on the feet
DFS Perspective:
This is a fairly competitive matchup between two well-rounded fighters. Ofli will likely look to lean on his pace and wrestling, while Reyes brings more experience and finishing upside. If Ofli can consistently secure takedowns, he can make this a close fight, but Reyes appears to have the edge in striking and overall damage potential. My slight lean is to Reyes in what should be a competitive battle.
UFC Baku Pick: Reyes
Daniil Donchenko (13-2-0) v. Theodor Berggren (8-3-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13-2 (8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Well-rounded prospect with good striking fundamentals and solid grappling
- Does a good job controlling range and maintaining a steady pace throughout fights
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 8-3 (5 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Aggressive fighter who likes to pressure and force exchanges
- Dangerous offensively, but can leave openings when chasing finishes
DFS Perspective:
This looks like a favorable matchup for Donchenko. He appears to be the cleaner and more complete fighter, with advantages in both technique and overall consistency. Berggren is willing to make fights chaotic, but that style could play into Donchenko's hands if he remains disciplined. Donchenko profiles as the preferred side and one of the more intriguing prospects on the card.
UFC Baku Pick: Donchenko
Bekzat Almakhan (12-3-0) v. Jean Matsumoto (17-2-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-3 (10 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Explosive striker with legitimate knockout power and fast hands
- Dangerous whenever he can create exchanges and force opponents to respect his power
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-2 (3 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Well-rounded bantamweight with strong grappling and excellent fight IQ
- Comfortable winning fights in multiple ways and adapting to opponents
DFS Perspective:
This should be one of the better fights on the card. Almakhan brings the bigger power and can change the fight with one shot, while Matsumoto has the more complete overall game and a clear grappling advantage. The key question is whether Matsumoto can avoid prolonged striking exchanges and force Almakhan to defend takedowns. The slight lean is to Matsumoto due to his versatility, but Almakhan is very live and carries serious upset potential.
UFC Baku Pick: Matsumoto
Tahir Abdullaev (21-3-0) v. Jefferson Nascimento (13-0-0)
- Height: 5'18" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 21-3 (9 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)
- Experienced and well-rounded fighter with a strong wrestling base
- Most effective when controlling tempo and forcing opponents into grinding fights
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13-0 (5 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Undefeated prospect with finishing ability in multiple areas
- Athletic, aggressive, and capable of creating big moments throughout a fight
DFS Perspective:
I'm going to side with Nascimento here. Abdullaev has the experience advantage and a solid wrestling foundation, but Nascimento appears to have the higher ceiling. His athleticism, finishing ability and undefeated record make him one of the more intriguing prospects on the card. If he can keep the fight competitive in the wrestling exchanges, I expect him to be the more dangerous fighter throughout. Nascimento profiles as the preferred side with strong upside.
UFC Baku Pick: Nascimento
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING RULES
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING RULES
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
