UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC Vegas 119 - Kape vs Horiguchi
The UFC heads back to the Apex for a card featuring 12 intriguing bouts, including a consequential scrap for the future of the flyweight division. We'll break down each fight across three platforms to help prospective players find profit. Picks this week include an explosive karate stylist, as well as a veteran looking to turn the tide of a hurricane. Our betting lines this week are courtesy of the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Predictions to Consider on DraftKings
Bia Mesquita ($9,600)
It isn't always comfortable locking fighters in this price range into GPP lineups, but I have no issues with Mesquita, who is incredibly strong for the division and is a multiple-time BJJ champion. Wrestling is an integral part of Melissa Mullins' game, but she will be at a noticeable strength and grappling deficit here, leaving me to wonder how she will be able to stop Bia from taking the fight over.
Shane Collins ($8,500)
Collins enters the UFC as a tireless wrestle-boxer who will pour on pressure and rip the body en route to finding his takedowns. Otari Tanzilovi throws crisp, straight punches, but he is too willing to cede ground to opponents and does not have a particularly high work rate. This should allow Collins to get his offense flowing.
Allan Nascimento ($8,800)
Injuries and canceled bouts have kept Nascimento from the cage in recent years, but he remains one of the trickiest submission grapplers at flyweight, with strength to match. Mitch Raposo has wrestling in his back pocket, but he will likely need to lean on his boxing against the Brazilian. This means a stance that leans heavily on the lead leg, which will give Nascimento clean entries for his takedowns.
Luana Santos ($7,900)
Karol Rosa's volume-striking approach can be hard to deal with, but she stands upright in the pocket, which has led to struggles with committed wrestlers like Ailin Perez. Santos averages over two takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time and won't stop looking for clinch exchanges, which should prevent Rosa from staying on the front foot.
Kyoji Horiguchi ($7,600)
Horiguchi is my pick to be the flyweight champion at the end of the year, as no other fighter in the division has his combination of speed, power, and well-roundedness. Manel Kape is often able to surprise opponents with his agility and explosiveness, but he will be trying to hit a moving target in Horiguchi, who should be able to get ahead of a flat-footed opponent while the two are in space. While opinions may vary regarding the relevance of a fight that happened so long ago, the Japanese fighter defeated Kape in the RIZIN ring by submission in 2017, and we have seen "Starboy" have trouble getting off his back when taken down. Given his current win streak and the open nature of the division, it's easy to see Horiguchi being next in line for champion Joshua Van with a win here.
Christian Rodriguez ($8,400)
This fight seems a bit easier to call in light of Hyder Amil's recent bout against Jamall Emmers, in which he was taken down six times on seven attempts. Rodriguez is a willing takedown threat who has shown the ability to hit reactive shots as well. This should play nicely against Amil, who is known for aggressively pursuing opponents without care for defense or positioning.
Andre Fili ($7,300)
Vinicius Oliveira is a wild man who collects wins by wearing out his opponents. I don't expect this to work against Fili, a veteran who knows how to manage his gas tank and mix in his wrestling to keep fighters guessing. "Touchy" will have a four-inch reach advantage here, which should make it difficult for Oliveira to control the bout at range.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Ion Cutelaba OVER 25.5 Significant Strikes, and Gaston Bolanos UNDER 55.5 Significant Strikes
Cutelaba has earned a reputation for being shot out of a cannon in fights, but he has shown much more restraint lately, utilizing leg kicks and sitting behind a jab in his bout with Modestas Bukauskas. Navajo Stirling has yet to record a first-round finish in four UFC fights, and I anticipate another slow start against a dangerous opponent.
Michael Aswell has given as well as he has gotten in the UFC, landing and absorbing more than seven significant strikes per minute. Bolanos throws hard, doesn't move his head while in the pocket, and is always ready for a firefight. This seems like a recipe for a short night, as both men are likely to eat big shots early.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool
UFC Bets to Consider
Melsik Baghdasaryan (+280)
This is one of those lines that feels too wide to me. Injuries have prevented Baghdasaryan from fulfilling what looked like an ocean of promise when he first entered the organization, but he is still an incredibly agile karate striker with power in everything he does. Murtazali Magomedov is a talented striker and grappler, but defensive lapses result in him having to overcome adversity more often than is comfortable for an undefeated prospect. This may be a case of oddsmakers forgetting just how good Baghdasaryan can look when he has his game going, as I expect him to give a strong account of himself here.
Levan Chokheli Wins in Round 1 (-110)
Leon Shahbazyan does just about everything wrong defensively as a tall fighter: he backs up in straight lines, tries to lean away from punches, and doesn't move his head when throwing in the pocket. Choktelli should be able to have a field day with that last item, specifically, as his punches are much tighter and controlled on counters than when he is coming forward. Regardless of whether he is leading or countering, Choktelli throws hard enough that he should be able to close the show against Shahbzyan, who has taken three of his four knockout losses in the first round.
Andre Lima Wins via decision (+120)
While I expect Lima to win, it seems Borjas's recent losing skid is obscuring his skills as a solid boxer with nice footwork. Look for "Mascote" to control this fight with his jab and body work, but the Brazilian has yet to find a knockout in his UFC tenure, and Borjas has been submitted just once in 15 professional fights.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Vegas 119. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section
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