UFC Vegas 119 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
Dive into the top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC Vegas 119 on Saturday. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $333k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Flyweight
Manel Kape (22-7-0) v. Kyoji Horiguchi (36-5-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Kape ($8,600), Horiguchi ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Kape (-160), Horiguchi (+135)
There's about a 99.9% chance the winner of this one will be fighting for the UFC Flyweight Championship within the next 12 months, and that's exactly how it should be.
This is also a rematch of a New Year's Eve 2017 Rizin fight which Horiguchi won via third-round submission. That fight was at bantamweight.
Kape is 7-1 in his past eight fights dating back to August 2021, with five of the seven, and three straight, coming via knockout. The competition level faced has been far from overwhelming, but Kape is an exceptional athlete with high-end power for a 125-pounder. The fact he's this position is remarkable considering he lost his first two fights with the company. I'm a fan.
I'm also a Horiguchi supporter. Kyoji already fought for the UFC Flyweight Championship back in the day, getting submitted by Demetrious Johnson with exactly one second left on the clock back in April 2015. He fought a few more times with the company before going over to Japan and having a ton of success. He returned to the company last November, having submitted Tagir Ulanbekov and taken a clear cut decision from Amir Albazi since coming back.
Being an older fighter is typically not a positive thing in lower weight class. You can get away with it a bit at light heavyweight or heavyweight. Turning 36 years old in October at flyweight as Horiguchi is? That's more of a concern.
In addition to the power advantage, Kape is also highly creative in terms of stringing together combinations. He's exceptionally difficult to game plan for because there's really no guy in the division like him. He also has durability on his side, having never been knocked out in 29 professional fights.
That said, Horiguchi is a consummate professional. He's a threat everywhere and has all the experience in the world. He has been knocked out twice, but not since 2021. I'm not too worried about him getting knocked out because if he's engaging Kape in that style of fight things probably already aren't going his way.
Horiguchi needs to make this a low-event fight and attempt to mix in some takedowns. He certainly can do it, although I wouldn't call this a favorable stylistic matchup by any means.
I think this is close to a pick 'em. Athleticism and fluidity are certainly on the side of Kape but I have a difficult time going against Horiguchi at a discounted price. That leans me in the direction of the latter, but both are solid plays.
THE PICK: Horiguchi
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Co-Main Event - Light Heavyweight
Ion Cutelaba (20-11-1, 1NC) v. Navajo Stirling (9-0-0)
DK Salaries: Cutelaba ($7,000), Stirling ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Cutelaba (+260), Stirling (-325)
Cutelaba lost three straight and four of five from May 2022 to March 2024 and looked like an obvious release candidate. The UFC stuck with him and by and large, he's responded. Cutelaba is sporting a 3-1 record in his past four fights, with the one loss being a split decision to Modestas Bukauskas and his latest victory being an upset first-round submission win over Oumar Sy in March. I don't know how long this can last, but the fact Cutelaba is still without the coming having meaningful fights has to be considered a plus.
A tall (6-foot-4) striker from City Kickboxing, Stirling has gone 4-0 in his first four official fights with the company, with three unanimous decision wins and a knockout of Bruno Lopes his last time out. He's a legitimate prospect and won't turn 29 years of age until November, but the company has matched him up very softly to date. Cutelaba, regardless of what you think of him, is a legitimate step up in competition.
Given Striling's frame and skill set and the fact he's from New Zealand, it's no surprise he decided to go the City Kickboxing route. He's the exact type of athlete head coach Eugene Bareman has had all sorts of success with throughout the years. Stirling's long-term future is directly tied to how much he can improve the other areas of his game.
Cutelaba has real power and real durability issues. He seems to be fighting a bit smarter of late, not taking as many chances early on and it has worked for him.
He's long been an underrated wrestler, averaging 3.76 takedowns per 15 minutes. There's literally zero reason for him to engage Stirling in a slugfest. Try to remain at distance, shoot when possible, and drain the gas tank of your inexperienced opponent.
Sterling's takedown defense is 82 percent, but he gave up two to Rodolfo Bellato and three to Tuco Tokkos. I'm fairly confident Cutelaba can get him to the mat if he makes a concerted effort to do so.
Cutelaba has a path to victory, which technically makes him a value play given how cheap he is from a DK standpoint.
That said, Stirling is a legitimate prospect and if he's as good as many people think, this is a fight he should win. I'm not all that interested in using him at $9,000, as I think there are several other safer plays, but he's my pick to emerge victorious.
THE PICK: Stirling
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Featherweight
Vinicius Oliveira (23-4-0) v. Andre Fili (25-13-0)
DK Salaries: Oliveira ($8,900), Fili ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Oliveira (-285), Fili (+230)
This was supposed to be Oliveira v. Giga Chikadze before the latter withdrew due to undisclosed reasons. Fili accepted this fight a little over a week ago.
Oliveira looked like a potential sleeper after winning each of his first four UFC bouts easily. Then he was elevated to a main event spot against Mario Bautista in February and no-showed in every sense of the word before getting submitted late in Round 2. Bautista is an excellent opponent, but this is an awful quick turnaround considering how terrible the Brazilian looked that evening.
Fili just turned 35 and hasn't been a legitimate contender of any sort in years, so it's easy to see why he accepted this fight as he has everything to gain and nothing to lose. He's alternated wins and losses in his past nine bouts, with four of those results (three wins, one loss) coming via split decision. Fili could easily have been 2-7 over that stretch if things had broken differently. Of course, if that was the case, he probably wouldn't be on the roster any longer.
On paper, Oliveira looks like a solid all-around fighter. He lands at a strong clip (4.73 significant strikes per minute), rarely gets hits (2.7 significant strikes per minute) and can wrestle some (1.45 takedowns per 15 minutes).
His clearest path to victory against Bautista was to try and grapple, but it was Oliveira that got taken down five times on seven attempts. That's obviously a major red flag, especially since pretty much all Fili can do these days is grapple.
In his past two fights, he landed four takedowns against Jose Delgado and three against Christian Rodriguez. Other than that, he was soundly outworked on the feet in both fights.
Fili's first instinct is to always brawl, but he's been in a ton of wars over the years and his footwork and mobility, which were never great in the first place, have fallen off considerably. I expect him to strike only long enough in an attempt to get Oliveira's hips.
Everything here is point to the Brazilian, but Fili has been doing this a long time and he's certainly capable of pulling an upset if Oliveira doesn't show up ready to fight. He didn't against Bautista. It's not enough for me to roll with the underdog but this isn't as much of a lock as it feels like it should be on paper.
THE PICK: Oliveira
Featherweight
Hyder Amil (11-2-0) v. Christian Rodriguez (12-4-0)
DK Salaries: Amil ($7,800), Rodriguez ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Amil (+150), Rodriguez (-180)
Amil has remained very active since his February 2024 company debut, fighting five times. He won each of his first three against lower-level competition before stumbling in his last two. With this season's version of Dana White's Contender Series set to kick off shortly, I feel comfortable in saying that the 36-year-old would be looking at a release if he comes up short here against Rodriguez.
Like Amil, Rodriguez is badly in need of a victory. He's lost three of four dating back to July 2024. A member of the UFC roster since February 2022, Christian's biggest moment was a shocking unanimous decision win over Raul Rosas back in April 2023. Sadly, he hasn't appeared to improve much, if at all, since then. The only thing Rodriguez has going for himself over Amil is that he's about seven years younger.
Amil is super aggressive on the feet. He's only 5-foot-9, but fights much bigger than that. He has a traditional boxing stance, constantly pushing forward in hopes of putting his opponent on the back foot and controlling the pace.
Like many aggressive fighters, Amil is willing to eat a strike in order to land two of his own. He's only been knocked out once in 13 career fights, so I expect him to continue to employ a similar style, but the durability could seemingly go at any moment given Amil's advanced age.
It's difficult to get behind Rodriguez simply because his power has evaporated since joining the UFC. He lands at about an average rate on the feet (3.85 significant strikes per minute) but very few of them appear to do any real damage. His last knockout win came in March 2021. His last four victories have come via decision.
I have a real difficult time believing Rodriguez is going to be able to land with enough notoriety throughout the course of 15 minutes to win a decision.
Now, if C-Rod is able to get his wrestling going, all bets are off. Amil was taken down seven times his last time out by Jamall Emmers. He gave up 8:35 worth of control time and was essentially a fish out of water fighting off of his back.
I'm worried about Amil getting plastered to the mat for the better part of 15 minutes but I think his advantage on the feet is real. I'll take the $600 in savings and hope he can remain upright long enough to win the fight on the feet. Part of the reason I'm willing to take the risk is Rodriguez's lack of power.
THE PICK: Amil
Other Bouts
Flyweight
Andre Lima (11-0-0) v. Kevin Borjas (10-5-0)
DK Salaries: Lima ($9,700), Borjas ($6,500)
Vegas Odds: Lima (-600), Borjas (+440)
THE PICK: Lima
Featherweight
Melsik Baghdasaryan (8-3-0) v. Murtazali Magomedov (10-0-0)
DK Salaries: Baghdasaryan ($7,200), Magomedov ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Baghdasaryan (+250), Magomedov (-310)
THE PICK: Magomedov
Women's Bantamweight
Bia Mesquita (7-0-0) v. Melissa Mullins (7-2-0)
DK Salaries: Mesquita ($9,600), Mullins ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Mesquita (-550), Mullins (+410)
THE PICK: Mesquita
Flyweight
Allan Nascimento (22-6-0) v. Mitch Raposo (10-3-0)
DK Salaries: Nascimento ($8,800), Raposo ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Nascimento (-220), Raposo (+180)
THE PICK: Nascimento
Featherweight
Gaston Bolanos (8-5-0) v. Michael Aswell (11-4-0)
DK Salaries: Bolanos ($6,800), Aswell ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Bolanos (+330), Aswell (-425)
THE PICK: Aswell
Women's Bantamweight
Karol Rosa (19-7-0) v. Luana Santos (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Rosa ($8,300), Santos ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Rosa (-120), Santos (+100)
THE PICK: Santos
Welterweight
Leon Shahbazyan (12-4-0) v. Levan Chokheli (14-3-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Shahbazyan ($7,100), Chokheli ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Shahbazyan (+250), Chokheli (-310)
THE PICK: Chokheli
Featherweight
Shane Collins (7-0-0) v. Otari Tanzilovi (10-1-0)
DK Salaries: Collins ($8,500), Tanzilovi ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Collins (-175), Tanzilovi (+135)
THE PICK: Collins
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
