The UFC heads to Azerbaijan on Saturday, June 27, for UFC Baku. The main event sees lightweight contenders throw down, as Rafael Fiziev takes on Manuel Torres.
Below, I'll share my UFC Baku predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC Baku Betting Favorite
Jean Matsumoto (17-2) vs. Bekzat Almakhan (12-3) - Bantamweight
For my favorite at UFC Baku, I'm taking Jean Matsumoto to get his hand raised against Bekzat Almakhan.
Matsumoto is coming off a split decision loss to Farid Basharat in a fight in which he fought well. He's 3-2 in the UFC, and his past three fights have gone to split decision, including a split-decision loss to Rob Font, proving he's a fringe top-15 guy.
Mastumoto throws more volume on the feet and also averages three takedowns per 15 minutes, which should help him win the minutes and likely edge out another close decision.
UFC Baku Bet: Jean Matsumoto (-155)
UFC Baku Underdog
Michal Oleksiejczuk (22-9) vs. Abus Magomedov (28-7-1) - Middleweight
For my underdog pick at UFC Baku, I'm taking Michal Oleksiejczuk to pull off the upset against Abus Magomedov on Saturday.
Oleksiejczuk is only a +100 underdog, so the odds have started to shift. I expect him to likely be the favorite by fight time, but getting any plus-money or below -140 is a good bet on the Polish fighter.
Since training at Fighting Nerds, Oleksiejczuk has looked much better, and I expect him to be able to land the more powerful shots and likely get a stoppage win in the second or third round, once Magomedov gasses out, as his cardio is a major concern.
UFC Baku Bet: Michal Oleksiejczuk (+100)
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UFC Baku Prop Bet
Ikram Aliskerov (17-2) vs. Brunno Ferreira (15-3) - Middleweight
For my prop bet at UFC Baku, I'm taking the under 1.5 rounds in the Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira fight.
Aliskerov and Ferreira are both finishers with tons of power who aren't afraid to throw down. In Aliskerov's UFC career -- including the Contender Series -- he's 5-1 with five fights ending in the first round.
Ferreira, meanwhile, has gone under 1.5 rounds in two of his last three fights, and is coming off a quick KO loss to Gregory Rodrigues back in March, so this is a rather quick turnaround.
I like Aliskerov to come out strong and likely KO Ferreira early as Rodrigues did. But, given the amount of power Ferreira has, the safer bet is to take the under 1.5 rounds, in case he catches Aliskerov early.
UFC Baku Bet: Ikram Aliskerov-Brunno Ferreira under 1.5 rounds (-120)
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UFC Baku Parlay
Shara Magomedov (16-1) vs. Michel Pereira (32-14) - Middleweight
Asu Almabayev (23-3) vs. Charles Johnson (19-8) - Flyweight
For my parlay at UFC Baku, I'm taking Shara Magomedov and Asu Almabayev to get their hands raised.
Magomedov is the co-main event against Pereira, and this seems like a tailor-made fight for the Russian to get the win. Magomedov returned to the win column against Marc-Andre Barriault after a loss to Michael Page, but he hasn't impressed me in either fight. However, Pereira is 1-3 in his last four, and his last fight was a close decision win over Zachary Reese. I expect Magomedov to land the better shots and likely score a TKO over Pereira in the first or second round.
On the other leg, I'm taking Asu Almabayev to beat Charles Johnson. Almabayev is someone I'm very high on, as he's 6-1 in the UFC, and his lone loss is to Manel Kape. Johnson, meanwhile, is a good gatekeeper for the top-15, but I expect Almabayev to be able to land the better shots on the feet and use his grappling to control Johnson en route to a decision win.
UFC Baku Bet: Shara Magomedov & Asu Almabayev parlay (-122)
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UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's [Event Name] card.
- Jean Matsumoto (-155)
- Michal Oleksiejczuk (+100)
- Ikram Aliskerov-Brunno Ferreira under 1.5 rounds (-120)
- Shara Magomedov & Asu Almabayev parlay (-122)
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