Top DFS Picks and Strategies for UFC Vegas 119
MMA DFS picks for this weekend's UFC Vegas 119 card are live. Included in this preview are profiles for each fighter and breakdowns of my DFS strategy for every bout on the card. Welcome to Drake's Takes.
UFC Vegas 19 Picks & Career Results:
2026 Overall Picks: 168-67-2
2025 Overall Picks: 345-152-2
DFS Lock of the Week: Magomedov
Fanduel Captain: Magomedov
Manel Kape (22-7-0) v. Kyoji Horiguchi (36-5-0)
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 22-7 (14 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Explosive striker with elite speed and fight-changing power
- Most effective when he can dictate range and create damaging moments on the feet
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 63" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 36-5 (15 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Former champion with outstanding footwork, wrestling, and experience
- Well-rounded veteran who rarely gives opponents easy openings
DFS Perspective:
This is one of the best fights on the card, and it's much closer than the odds suggest. Horiguchi still possesses elite movement and a complete skill set, making him capable of extending this fight and winning rounds with activity. However, Kape has evolved into one of the most dangerous flyweights in the world, and his speed and explosiveness should create the bigger moments. Horiguchi is always live, but I'll lean Kape to edge out a competitive fight by landing the more impactful shots and defending enough takedowns to keep the fight in his world.
UFC Vegas 119 Pick: Kape
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Ion Cutelaba (20-11-1) v. Navajo Stirling (9-0-0)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 20-11-1 (13 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Aggressive pressure fighter with heavy hands and explosive wrestling
- Most dangerous early when he can overwhelm opponents with physicality
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9-0 (5 KO/TKO)
- Undefeated prospect with excellent range, movement, and striking
- Composed fighter who does a great job controlling distance and limiting damage
DFS Perspective:
Cutelaba is always dangerous in the opening minutes and will likely come out looking for an early finish or takedown. If Stirling can survive that initial storm, I expect the fight to swing heavily in his favor. His length, striking and composure should allow him to pick Cutelaba apart as the fight progresses. Stirling profiles as the preferred side with strong upside against a fighter who tends to fade after an aggressive start.
UFC Vegas 119 Pick: Stirling
Christian Rodriguez (12-4-0) v. Hyder Amil (11-2-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-4 (3 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Well-rounded fighter with solid grappling and good defensive awareness
- Most effective when slowing fights down and mixing in wrestling
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 11-2 (6 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Relentless pressure striker with excellent volume and power
- Excels in fast-paced fights where he can overwhelm opponents on the feet
DFS Perspective:
I'm going to side with Amil here due to the significant striking advantage. Rodriguez is a capable grappler and always has a path through wrestling, but Amil's pace, pressure and output should create the bigger moments throughout the fight. If Rodriguez is unable to consistently secure takedowns, I expect Amil to take over on the feet and outland him by a wide margin. Amil profiles as the preferred side with strong DFS upside.
UFC Vegas 119 Pick: Amil
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Andre Lima (11-0-0) v. Kevin Borjas (10-5-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-0 (5 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Undefeated prospect with a well-rounded skill set and relentless pace
- Excels at mixing striking and grappling while constantly pressuring opponents
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-5 (8 KO/TKO)
- Aggressive striker with quick hands and finishing ability
- Dangerous early, but can be overwhelmed by pressure and volume
DFS Perspective:
Lima continues to look like one of the better young flyweights in the division. His ability to mix striking with grappling gives him multiple paths to victory, while Borjas is at his best when he can keep fights standing and land big shots. If Lima fights at his usual pace and mixes in takedowns, he should be able to control the action from start to finish. Lima profiles as one of the stronger plays on the slate with both a high floor and solid upside.
UFC Vegas 119 Pick: Lima
Melsik Baghdasaryan (8-3-0) v. Murtazali Magomedov (10-0-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 8-3 (5 KO/TKO)
- Technical kickboxer with sharp combinations and dangerous body attacks
- Most effective when he can keep fights standing and control range
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-0 (5 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Undefeated and well-rounded with a strong wrestling foundation
- Comfortable mixing striking with takedowns and controlling the pace
DFS Perspective:
This is a classic striker versus well-rounded grappler matchup. Baghdasaryan has the cleaner striking and is dangerous if he can keep this fight at range, but Magomedov has multiple paths to victory and the ability to dictate where the fight takes place. If he leans on his wrestling and mixes his attacks, he should be able to neutralize Melsik's best weapons. Magomedov profiles as the preferred side with a strong all-around scoring path.
UFC Vegas 119 Pick: Magomedov
Vinicius Oliveira (23-4-0) v. Andre Fili (25-13-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 23-4 (16 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Aggressive and well-rounded with excellent pace and finishing ability
- Constantly pressures forward and creates opportunities in every phase
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 25-13 (10 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Veteran striker with solid boxing and underrated grappling
- Durable and experienced but has become increasingly inconsistent
DFS Perspective:
Fili is always capable of making fights competitive, but Oliveira is entering his prime and continues to impress with his pace and well-rounded attack. He has advantages in activity, finishing upside and momentum, which should allow him to dictate the fight. If Oliveira pushes the pace from the opening bell, he should be able to overwhelm Fili and pick up another quality win. Oliveira profiles as one of the better plays on the slate.
UFC Vegas 119 Pick: Oliveira
Bia Mesquita (7-0-0) v. Melissa Mullins (7-2-0)
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7-0 (1 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Elite jiu-jitsu practitioner with outstanding control and submission ability
- Most effective when forcing grappling exchanges and dominating on the mat
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7-2 (4 KO/TKO)
- Physical striker with solid clinch work and improving wrestling
- Prefers to keep fights standing and use her size and strength
DFS Perspective:
Mesquita's world-class grappling makes her a difficult matchup for almost anyone in the division. Mullins has physical advantages and enough power to be competitive on the feet, but if this fight hits the mat, the edge swings heavily toward Mesquita. I expect Mesquita to find takedowns, control positions and eventually threaten submissions throughout the fight. Mesquita profiles as one of the strongest grappling plays on the slate.
UFC Vegas 119 Pick: Mesquita
Mitch Raposo (10-3-0) v. Allan Nascimento (22-6-0)
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 64" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 10-3 (4 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Tough, scrappy flyweight who likes to push a steady pace
- Most effective when forcing wrestling exchanges and making fights competitive
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22-6 (1 KO/TKO, 16 submissions)
- Elite grappler with outstanding back takes and submission ability
- Patient fighter who excels at controlling opponents once the fight hits the mat
DFS Perspective:
This is a difficult stylistic matchup for Raposo. Nascimento owns a massive advantage on the ground and is one of the better submission specialists in the flyweight division. Even if Raposo has success early, Nascimento only needs one grappling exchange to turn the fight around. I expect Nascimento to dictate the action on the mat and control his way to another impressive victory, making him one of the stronger grappling plays on the slate.
UFC Vegas 119 Pick: Nascimento
Michael Aswell Jr. (11-4-0) v. Gaston Bolanos (8-5-0)
Michael Aswell Jr.
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-4 (6 KO/TKO)
- Aggressive pressure fighter with heavy hands and excellent volume
- Thrives in chaotic fights and constantly looks to overwhelm opponents with pace
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-5 (6 KO/TKO)
- Technical kickboxer with solid power and clean combinations
- Can struggle when opponents refuse to give him space and force a high pace
DFS Perspective:
I like Aswell by a landslide in this matchup. His pressure, volume and willingness to push the action should keep Bolanos on the defensive from the opening bell. Bolanos is a technical striker, but he has struggled when forced into uncomfortable, high-paced fights. I expect Aswell to dictate the tempo, land the bigger shots, and pull away as the fight progresses. Aswell profiles as one of the strongest value plays on the slate with excellent DFS upside.
UFC Vegas 119 Pick: Aswell Jr.
Karol Rosa (19-7-0) v. Luana Santos (10-2-0)
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 19-7 (4 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- High-volume striker with excellent cardio and relentless pressure
- Excels at winning rounds through activity and pace rather than finishing ability
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-2 (1 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Athletic and well-rounded with dangerous grappling and improving striking
- Most effective when mixing takedowns with aggressive offense
DFS Perspective:
This should be one of the more competitive fights on the card. Rosa's volume and experience make her a difficult out, while Santos has the higher ceiling thanks to her grappling and finishing ability. If Santos is able to consistently secure takedowns and avoid getting stuck in a striking battle, she should be able to control the fight and create the more meaningful moments. My slight lean is to Santosm, who has the higher DFS upside.
UFC Vegas 119 Pick: Santos
Leon Shahbazyan (12-4-0) v. Levan Chokheli (14-3-0)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-4 (1 KO/TKO, 11 submission)
- Powerful striker with aggressive combinations and finishing ability
- Most dangerous when he can dictate the pace and keep fights standing
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-3 (11 KO/TKO)
- Well-rounded fighter with solid striking and an underrated grappling game
- Comfortable fighting at range and mixing in takedowns when needed
DFS Perspective:
This should be a competitive fight between two dangerous prospects. Shahbazyan has the edge in pure knockout power and will look to make this a striking battle, while Chokheli has multiple paths to victory with a more complete overall skill set. If Chokheli mixes his offense and avoids prolonged exchanges, he should be able to dictate the fight. Slight lean Chokheli, but both fighters offer DFS upside in what could be an action-packed matchup.
UFC Vegas 119 Pick: Chokheli
Shane Collins (7-0-0) v. Otari Tanzilovi (13-2-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7-0 (4 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Undefeated prospect with a balanced skill set and strong finishing instincts
- Pushes a high pace and is comfortable mixing striking with grappling
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13-2 (7 KO/TKO)
- Well-rounded fighter with solid power and good defensive awareness
- Dangerous in all phases and capable of adjusting throughout a fight
DFS Perspective:
This is a closely matched fight between two talented prospects with multiple paths to victory. Collins has looked impressive early in his career and brings relentless pressure, while Tanzilovi has more experience and a polished all-around game. If Collins can push the pace and force exchanges, he can make this a difficult fight. The slight lean is to Collins, who has sneaky DFS upside, but this is one of the more competitive fights on the slate.
UFC Vegas 119 Pick: Collins
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
