UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC 327 - Prochazka vs. Ulberg
The UFC heads to Miami for a numbered fight card that is full of intriguing matchups from top to bottom. We'll take a look at every bout on the 12-fight slate, including a brawler looking to halt a losing streak, and an underdog in the battle of two long-standing veterans. Our bets this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Predictions to Consider on DraftKings
Curtis Blaydes ($8,400)
Josh Hokit has paired an all-action style with an attention-grabbing gimmick to shoot above his skis here, as he is being granted a fight inside the top 5 after two knockout victories of unranked heavyweights. The problem is that Hokit's game is a complete mess, as he charges forward, spamming punches and takedown attempts, betting that his opponent will wilt. We have seen Blaydes come back and knock out Jailton Almeida after being tossed around for the entire first frame. If Hokit doesn't knock him out quickly, "Razor" will likely book a finish over an exhausted fighter.
Aaron Pico ($9,200)
Pico was flattened by a spinning elbow from Lerone Murphy in his UFC debut, but was controlling the bout before that point, having logged two takedowns and two minutes of control in the opening frame. While flash knockouts do loom in Pico's past, Patricio Freire is not a dynamic mover in the cage, as he generally keeps his feet planted, looking for big counter shots. This should allow the 29-year-old to pile up points.
Francisco Prado ($7,400)
Prado tends to get in trouble because he is short for the weight class, and the wide hooks he throws in exchanges ensure that he gets hit first. At least one of these things won't be an issue against Charlie Radtke, as Prado actually stands an inch taller than him, despite a three-inch reach deficit. He will need to deal with the fast hands of "Chuck Buffalo," but Prado is incredibly hard to hurt, and Radtke's game tends to break down when he is pressured.
Vicente Luque ($7,200)
I was a bit surprised to see Luque as such a big dog against Kelvin Gastelum, who has fast hands, but repeatedly lets his opponents back into fights by not being active enough. Luque should be able to match him for speed while exploiting a 60 percent takedown defense rate. Much has been made of Luque's chin of late, but Gastelum hasn't recorded a KO/TKO finish since he slept Michael Bisping in 2017.
Tatiana Suarez ($8,500)
I didn't exactly love what I saw from Suarez in her win over Amanda Lemos, but Lupita Godinez lost to both Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba, largely because she is too comfortable with her back to the fence. "Loopy" could control portions of this fight with her jab, but Suarez is going to have too many opportunities to bring the fight where she wants it.
Chris Padilla ($8,700)
Padilla is so well-rounded that I doubt Marquel Medieros will be able to recover when being put in bad spots, as he was during his bout against Mark Choinski. The big difference here will be combination punching, with Padilla rolling downhill after pouring on the pressure.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider on PrizePicks
Johnny Walker OVER 20.5 Significant Strikes, Cub Swanson UNDER 66.5 Significant Strikes, and Azamat Murzakanov OVER 48.5 Significant Strikes
Walker versus Dominick Reyes may seem like a battle between two glass cannons, but both men have become cautious in their late careers, with Reyes hesitant to pull the trigger outside of an ideal situation, and Walker opting to use his athleticism on the outside. While a finish should materialize at some point, I think the initial feeling-out process will last longer than usual and take us past our total.
This line seems incredibly high for a fight against Nate Landwehr, who throws caution to the wind as soon as the bell rings. Swanson has never been afraid of a firefight, so it's difficult to imagine that this one goes too far beyond the opening round.
Murzakanov has found knockouts in five of his six UFC wins, but not all of them have come quickly. This is because the Russian fighter is often shorter than his opponent and uses body shots to work his way into range. Things will be no different against Paulo Costa, who is agile and likes to fire kicks from the outside. The Brazilian's hesitancy to stand in the pocket should lead to a fairly large total here as Murzakanov pokes and prods to score points.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool
UFC Bets to Consider
Jiri Prochazka Wins via KO/TKO (+145)
Prochazka will always live and die by the sword, but he should have an easier time achieving the former against Carlos Ulberg, who is too content to hang back and try to time big counter shots. We have seen the Czech fighter be more diligent about his defense of late, specifically his own pull counters, like the one he used to knock out Jamahal Hill. Ulberg generally likes to set the tempo of his fights, but Prochazka will turn this fight into a sprint in short order.
Esteban Ribovics Wins via KO/TKO (+460)
As dominant as Mateusz Gamrot's grappling can look at times, it still boils down to a one-note offense. We have seen fighters hurt "Gamer" badly when they can neutralize his single-leg takedowns, and Radovics just spent an entire fight showcasing his anti-grappling, stuffing all nine attempts from Elves Brener. Gamrot will need this bout on the floor to be out of danger, and I can't back a fighter who is at risk of being knocked out whenever he is in range.
Kevin Holland Wins via KO/TKO (+400)
The book is out on how to immobilize Randy Brown, as we saw Gabriel Bonfim batter "Rude Boy" with calf kicks before finding a knockout in November. Holland will be more than happy to oblige, as evidenced by the 28 leg kicks he threw in his decision loss to Mike Malott. Brown was also hurt before putting away Nicolas Dalby, which could indicate that he is becoming less durable. Holland's career has plateaued as he has settled on fighting as often as possible, but he can still make opponents pay for standing in front of him.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC 327. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section
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