UFC Perth DraftKings DFS Picks & Predictions
See the top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC Perth. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Welterweight
Jack Della Maddalena (18-3-0) v. Carlos Prates (23-7-0)
DK Salaries: Della Maddalena ($8,000), Prates ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Della Maddalena (+100), Prates (-120)
Della Maddalena earned his UFC opportunity with a September 2021 win on Dana White's Contender Series. He went on to win each of his first eight official fights with the company, culminating with earning the UFC Welterweight Championship in a lopsided unanimous decision win over Belal Muhammad last May. Unfortunately for JDM, his first title defense was against Islam Makhachev in November at Madison Square Garden, and he was predictably swept on the scorecards. The odds are probably against Della Maddalena getting back to that level, but he's proven to be incredibly resourceful and isn't the type of guy you want to bet against.
Prates earned knockout wins in each of his first four UFC fights, at which point he went up against Ian Garry last April. He seemed off that night, eventually dropping a unanimous decision, but he has since rebounded with back-to-back knockout wins over Geoff Neal and what's left of Leon Edwards. The power is ridiculous, even if the rest of Prates' game is lacking at times.
These two go about things in similar, but entirely different ways.
Neither can grapple a lick, at least in terms of implementing any sort of offensive wrestling. Della Maddalena would be wise to try to get this fight to the mat given Prates' power, but he averages just 0.13 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Carlos has yet to be taken down in his UFC run. In other words, it probably isn't happening.
That leaves us with the volume of Della Maddalena v. the pure power of Prates.
We've seen Jack outwork his opposition on multiple occasions. He landed 178 significant strikes over five rounds against Muhammad. He put up 105 in three rounds against Kevin Holland.
Any JDM victory seems likely to come either via decision or a late stoppage, so he better be prepared to put a pace on Prates from the get go.
I really don't know what to make of Prates. His skill set is not one I typically like to back. If he doesn't starch his opposition with one shot, what is he really doing for you? The one fight it didn't happen was against Garry, and that, of course, was his only UFC defeat.
This fight is lined as a pick 'em, and that seems correct. Prates' power is the bout's biggest potential difference-maker, but JDM is competing at home, and I think he's the better all-around fighter. It could obviously all go bad in an instant if Jack's durability doesn't hold up, but give me Della Maddalena via decision.
UFC PERTH PICK: Della Maddalena
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Co-Main Event - Lightweight
Beneil Dariush (23-7-1) v. Quillan Salkilld (11-1-0)
DK Salaries: Dariush ($6,800), Salkilld ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Dariush (+350), Salkilld (-455)
I still maintain Dariush is one of the more underrated fighters in the history of the company, but he's fallen on hard times of late, and I don't necessarily see things getting better anytime soon. He'll be 37 years old four days after this event takes place. He's lost three of four dating back to June 2023, all via knockout. He also missed weight his last time out against Benoit Saint-Denis in November for just the second time in his UFC career and first time since August 2020. Things are most definitely trending in the wrong direction.
Enter, Salkilld, who certainly doesn't have the resume of the guys Dariush has been facing in recent years but still possesses a ton of long-term upside. He's won 11 fights in a row since a loss in his February 2021 professional debut. He's 4-0 in the UFC with three stoppage wins (two knockouts, one submission), although his best opposition faced to date is either Jamie Mullarkey or Nasrat Haqparast. By comparison's sake, Dariush has been in there with Saint-Denis, Arman Tsarukyan, Charles Oliveira, etc. You get the idea. This is Salkilld's toughest test to date, regardless of what version of Beneil will show up at this stage of his career.
Dariush has always been a sneaky good athlete. He has power, and he's always been a well-rounded martial artist. I'd like to think a good portion of those skills still remain, but I have minimal confidence in his ability to make any of it work inside the Octagon.
One problem is that he's always been a very slow starter. It takes Dariush a while to get into a groove, and you can't be giving up the first round consistently when your bouts are only scheduled for three rounds.
More concerning is the fact his durability appears to be totally gone. It was never good to begin with, and now, it's downright awful. Six of Dariush's seven career defeats are via knockout.
Salkilld's numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt, but he looks like an all-around threat.
His finish of Haqparast was in the 2025 Knockout of the Year discussion. He's earned Performance of the Night bonuses in each of his last two fights.
He's more than a decade younger than Dariush, and as you would expect given the age difference between the two, far more explosive.
The price is high but probably fair given where both men are at in their respective careers. This is an easy pick.
UFC PERTH PICK: Salkilld
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Flyweight
Tim Elliott (22-13-1) v. Steve Erceg (13-4-0)
DK Salaries: Elliott ($6,900), Erceg ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Elliott (+270), Erceg (-340)
Erceg won each of his first three UFC bouts, and due to a lack of challengers, was fast-tracked into a title fight against Alexandre Pantoja in May 2024. He ended up dropping a tight unanimous decision, and he probably would have won had he not made a foolish mistake in the final round which allowed Pantoja to end up on top and grind away the remainder of the fight.
That was the start of a three-fight losing streak for Erceg, who was then knocked out by Kai Kara-France before dropping a unanimous decision to Brandon Moreno. He rebounded with an underwhelming unanimous decision win over Ode Osbourne at bantamweight his last time out in August. It's nice to see Steve back at 125 pounds for this one, as a large part of his appeal would go out the window in the higher weight class.
Elliott will be 40 years old the day before Christmas. He's in his second run with the company and has somehow won three of his last four fights. Elliott returned from more than a year-and-a-half on the sidelines to submit Kai Asakura last August, for which he was awarded a Performance of the Night bonus. Elliott has been in there against some of the best the sport has to offer, including Demetrious Johnson, Joseph Benavidez, Deiveson Figueiredo and others. He's never quite been on the same level as those top names, but he's a good all-around fighter, and he will make you look bad if you don't show up ready to go.
At 5-foot-8, Erceg has good size for the division. He's competent everywhere, although his greatest assets are his composure and technical boxing. Ever since arriving on the scene, he's never appeared overwhelmed by the moment. He just goes about his business and tries to implement his game plan. I wouldn't say he's passive to the point of a guy like the aforementioned Dariush, but he is methodical, and he's content to let the action come to him.
Elliott, on the other hand, tends to be more aggressive. He's never been a high-volume striker simply because he's so reliant on his wrestling game. He averages 3.71 takedowns per 15 minutes and has taken down each of his past dozen UFC opponents. The last UFC fight in which he didn't score a takedown came against Ben Nguyen in June 2017. He was also knocked out in 49 seconds that evening.
On the surface, Erceg seemed like an easy pick, but the more I thought about it, the more I couldn't get there.
He gave up a takedown to Osbourne, a takedown to Moreno, and nine to Pantoja. Are we really all that confident he's going to remain upright against Elliott long enough to win two of the three rounds with volume on the feet?
I'm not paying $9,300 to find out. Give me Elliott in an upset. He has a clear path to victory, win or lose.
UFC PERTH PICK: Elliott
Heavyweight
Shamil Gaziev (14-2-0) v. Brando Pericic (6-1-0)
DK Salaries: Gaziev ($7,800), Pericic ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Gaziev (+110), Pericic (-130)
Now 36 years old, Gaziev turned a September 2023 first-round submission win on Dana White's Contender Series into a UFC contract. He's gone 3-2 in his first five official fights with the company, with the wins coming against Thomas Petersen (knockout), Don'Tale Mayes (unanimous decision), and Martin Buday (knockout), while the setbacks were an 82-second knockout against Waldo Cortes-Acosta his last time out and a fourth-round retirement against Jair Rozenstruik in a main event in his second bout with the promotion.
Pericic made his UFC debut in September and this will already be his third fight with the promotion. He has been matched up literally as softly as possible thus far and has responded with back-to-back first-round knockout wins over Louie Sutherland and Elisa Ellison. I'm not a Gaziev guy by any means, but he's better than those two and thus will represent a stiffer test.
Outside of pinning his opposition up against the cage for long stretches at a time, I fail to see anything Gaziev does well. He lands just 2.62 significant strikes per minute. Well, obviously that number is so low because he's constantly racking up takedowns, right? Wrong. He averages just 0.93 per 15 minutes. Given what we've seen thus far, Gaziev's hopes of winning essentially ride on his ability to score standing cage control time.
As I mentioned earlier, we don't have much tape on Pericic to go off of. He seems like a competent striker with some power. Neither of those things are surprising considering he trains with the guys at City Kickboxing, one of the elite gyms in the sport today.
He's certainly more aggressive than Gaziev. Our only exposure to Pericic's grappling was when he stuffed 2-of-3 takedowns against Sutherland.
In a three-round fight, I'd rather the guy that is trying to go out there and make things happen. That's Pericic. Maybe he just looked good in his first two fights because he was facing lower-level opposition but as I mentioned earlier, I don't think Gaziev is a world beater by any means.
UFC PERTH PICK: Pericic
Other Bouts
Heavyweight
Tai Tuivasa (15-9-0) v. Louie Sutherland (10-5-0)
DK Salaries: Tuivasa ($8,600), Sutherland ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Tuivasa (-190), Sutherland (+160)
UFC PERTH PICK: Sutherland
Middleweight
Cam Rowston (14-3-0) v. Robert Bryczek (18-6-0)
DK Salaries: Rowston ($8,900), Bryczek ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Rowston (-185), Bryczek (+155)
UFC PERTH PICK: Rowston
Light Heavyweight
Junior Tafa (6-5-0) v. Kevin Christian (9-3-0)
DK Salaries: Tafa ($8,700), Christian ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Tafa (-205), Christian (+170)
UFC PERTH PICK: Christian
Middleweight
Jacob Malkoun (9-3-0) v. Gerald Meerschaert (37-21-0)
DK Salaries: Malkoun ($9,800), Meerschaert ($6,400)
Vegas Odds: Malkoun (-1200), Meerschaert (+750)
UFC PERTH PICK: Malkoun
Bantamweight
Colby Thicknesse (8-1-0) v. Vince Morales (16-10-0)
DK Salaries: Thicknesse ($8,300), Morales ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Thicknesse (-135), Morales (+115)
UFC PERTH PICK: Thicknesse
Middleweight
Ben Johnston (5-1-0) v. Wes Schultz (8-3-0)
DK Salaries: Johnston ($8,500), Schultz ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Johnston (-155), Schultz (+130)
UFC PERTH PICK: Schultz
Welterweight
Jonathan Micallef (9-1-0) v. Themba Gorimbo (14-6-0)
DK Salaries: Micallef ($9,200), Gorimbo ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Micallef (-245), Gorimbo (+200)
UFC PERTH PICK: Micallef
Lightweight
Dom Mar Fan (9-2-0) v. Kody Steele (7-1-0)
DK Salaries: Fan ($7,400), Steele ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Fan (+170), Steele (-205)
UFC PERTH PICK: Steele
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
