This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard
Course: Bay Hill Club & Lodge (7,466 yards, par 72)
Purse: $20,000,000
Winner: $4,000,000 and 700 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
The fourth Signature Event of the 2024 season takes us back to Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. These are becoming the toughest fields to make on the schedule and by the qualifying rules in place, there will be only 69 players teeing it up this week in Orlando with Tony Finau being the only exempt player to skip it. As is the case with the other Signature Events on the calendar, players will fighting for a $20 million purse and 700 FedExCup points for first place. This is the second of the three player hosted Signature Events, however, so much like we saw at the Genesis Invitational there will be a 36-hole cut where only the top-50 and ties will make it to the weekend or if you are within 10 shots of the lead. That being said, there won't be many heading home on Friday night and having one of those players in your lineup will be a death sentence.
The bulk of the field is made up of the Top 50 in the FedExCup from last season. The Next 10 players in the FedExCup who are not exempt also received an invite along with the Swing 5 players who scored the most points at the Mexico Open and Cognizant Classic. There were also five coveted sponsor exemptions granted to Nicolai Hojgaard, Shane Lowry, Adam Scott, Webb Simpson and David Ford, who earned his way into the field thanks to winning a vote of his peers at the 2023 Palmer Cup. The winning team votes for one individual to receive an exemption into the Arnold Palmer Invitational with players like Ludvig Aberg and Collin Morikawa being honored with that distinction previously.
You might be saying 69 players that seems a little low even for a Signature Event. You would be right. The issue with the qualification process for these events is that tournament winners from the 2024 season and players ranked in the top 30 of the OWGR have a lower priority than the Aon Next 10. There are six players in the Aon Next 10 who would have qualified via a win this season or via OWGR. Instead they take up a spot that could have been used by six other deserving players who have played well this season but not quite cracked the winner's circle or the top 30 in the OWGR. You would have to think it will be something talked about in future PGA Tour board meetings to try to get a few more players into these Signature Events which are already controversially low in field size, especially if we are going to continue to have a cut at three of them.
All that being said, 69 is what we have to work with this week and there will be someone very happy to be going home with the $4 million prize. There may also be one other very happy player who will get into the Open Championship. The Arnold Palmer Invitational is once again one of 12 events in the Open Qualifying Series for the 152nd Open Championship at Royal Troon. The highest finishing player not already exempt from the Arnold Palmer Invitational will earn a spot at the Open in July. There have already been nine total spots locked up in this series in South Africa, Australia and Malaysia. In the past the API has offered three places, but with the limited field size only one place will be awarded. The RBC Canadian Open (3), Memorial Tournament (1), John Deere Classic (2) and Genesis Scottish Open (3) are the other events on the PGA Tour schedule offering places in the Open Championship.
Kurt Kitayama will be back to defend this week after picking up his first PGA Tour victory last year at Bay Hill. Scottie Scheffler continues his stranglehold on the No. 1 spot in the OWGR and won this event back in 2022. Rory McIlroy is still No. 2 and was a winner back in 2018. The all-time wins leader at Bay Hill is Tiger Woods with eight of them. Some thought after being forced to withdraw from the Genesis Invitational last month with an illness that Woods may look to add this event to get one more competitive start in before the Masters, but he will not be in the field this week. There are still some rumblings that he could tee it up at The Players Championship next week, however.
Bay Hill is one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour and even after some early week rain expect it to show its teeth again to the best players in the world. The first two rounds will be the time to get it with sunny conditions and relatively mild winds. On the weekend things could get interesting with wind gusts over 20 mph and some potential showers on Sunday. We have seen just two players post a 72-hole score at double-digits under-par in the last four years. There's a real chance we might not see one added to the list this year.
Recent Champions
2023 - Kurt Kitayama (-9)
2022 - Scottie Scheffler (-5)
2021 - Bryson DeChambeau (-11)
2020 - Tyrrell Hatton (-4)
2019 - Francesco Molinari (-12)
2018 - Rory McIlroy (-18)
2017 - Marc Leishman (-11)
2016 - Jason Day (-17)
2015 - Matt Every (-19)
2014 - Matt Every (-13)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach
- SG: Off-the-Tee
- Par-5 Scoring
- Scrambling
Champion's Profile
Bay Hill is one of the most demanding ball-striking courses on the PGA Tour. There is absolutely no way to fake it around that golf course, especially if the breezes kick up. The fairways are narrower than top players would like, especially given how penal this rough is. The overseeded rough will be as lush as ever after enduring a wetter than normal winter. The greens, while sizable at 7,500 square feet, are annually among the hardest to hit in regulation. If there were ever a week to load up on ball strikers, this would be it.
The par 3s at Bay Hill are some of the most difficult on the PGA Tour and a number of par 4s are beasts as well. The objective is going to be to hang on at those holes and attack this gettable quartet of par 5s. That's where your score is made at Bay Hill. The bermuda greens are some of the fastest on the PGA Tour and will be a challenge to make putts for everyone. Because of the low GIR percentage for the field, you can certainly make up ground with a quality short game. If you can keep it in the short grass for the most part and pair that with good touch in close, those are the players who will be battling for the $4 million top prize come Sunday afternoon.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Scottie Scheffler ($12,400)
I'm not messing around this week. Scheffler is far and away the best ball striker on the planet and his short game is unfairly good given how well he hits it. The putting is the putting. He is good enough in the other three areas to still win with below average putting. That being said, Scheffler has actually gained on the greens in three of his last six events. He's gone T15-Win-T4 in his career at Bay Hill. The PGA Tour needs World No. 1 to make a statement and get back in the win column.
Xander Schauffele ($11,800)
Schauffele is now No. 2 in the Data Golf rankings behind top-10 finishes in four of five starts in 2024. The San Diego product thrives on tough golf courses as he ranks second in bogey avoidance. He only has a T24 and T39 here but has putted fantastic in both of those appearances. I'm not worried about Schauffele's ball striking at second this season in SG: Tee-to-Green. It's hard to believe he hasn't won since the 2022 Scottish Open. He's due.
Jordan Spieth ($11,100)
Spieth has something to prove this week after just a boneheaded mistake that led to a DQ at the Genesis Invitational a few weeks ago. He has finished T4 with legit chances to win in both appearances at Bay Hill, which almost makes you wonder why he didn't play here earlier in his career. Some might be concerned with his driving at a place like this but Spieth has gained in SG: Off-the-Tee in 11 of his last 12 starts. Combine that with arguably the best short game in the world and he's got an excellent chance at PGA Tour win No. 14.
The Middle Tier
Matt Fitzpatrick ($10,400)
Fitzpatrick has been quiet this season. He's made six starts, three of them were top-25s where he putted great and three of them were T58-or-worse where h putted terribly. If there are any greens on the PGA Tour he loves, however, it is Bay Hill where he has six top-15s and never lost strokes on the greens in nine starts. I'm going to lean on the course history here over some of the early season ball-striking stats, but Fitzpatrick has been quite good with the long irons, something that will be used a lot on this course.
Tommy Fleetwood ($10,200)
Fleetwood has been as good as anyone not named Scheffler from tee to green over the last six months. He has racked up 11 top-15s in his last 16 starts overall. During that stretch he has been negative in SG: Off-the-Tee just once. Fleetwood has also had a fair amount of success at Bay Hill going 6-for-7 with a trio of top-10s, including a T3 in 2019.
Keegan Bradley ($9,500)
Bradley went T10-T11-T10 the last three years at Bay Hill. A lot of that success is due to how high he hits the ball. That is needed coming into firm and fast greens, especially out of the rough. In 12 starts he has missed just one cut at Bay Hill and he has gained strokes from tee to green in all but his first attempt in 2011. Bradley hasn't lost strokes on approach since the U.S. Open last year and has a win and six other top-25s over that stretch.
The Long Shots
Erik van Rooyen ($8,600)
van Rooyen is hot, going T25-T20-MC-T8-T2 over his last five starts and his ball striking has been extremely impressive. He ranks 18th this season in SG: Off-the-Tee and 11th in GIR percentage. On top of that van Rooyen is also fourth in par 5 scoring and ninth in putts per GIR. The South African has never played that well here before, but he is playing the best golf of his career having gained on approach in 11 of his last 12 measured starts.
Tom Hoge ($8,200)
Hoge has racked up four top-20s over his last six starts. He has gained with the putter in all of those and has gained in a big way on approach in his last 11 tournaments. Hoge leads the PGA Tour this season in total birdies and is fourth in SG: Approach at just over a stroke per round. The par 3s that cause a lot of players issues will not be a problem for this type of elite iron play. T15 at Bay Hill in 2020.
Patrick Rodgers ($8,100)
Rodgers certainly has the ideal club head speed you covet at a long course like this with thick rough. He also has largely gone under the radar recently even though he has five top-25s in his last seven starts, the last of which being a T6 in Mexico. Rogers is ninth in GIR percentage this season and has gone 6-for-8 with a trio of top-25s at Bay Hill in his career.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
This is as deep of a field as you're going to find all season. It's pretty hard to make a case against anybody above $9K this week. I've hopefully driven home the point this week about the importance of ball striking and this field is just littered with flushers. Bay Hill does seem to be one of the stickier venues out there in terms of course history, so that would be a good final determining factor when deciding between a handful of players for your roster. Some other really interesting option not included above would be Cameron Young ($10,800), Will Zalatoris ($10,500), Adam Scott ($9,700) and Byeong Hun An ($9,400). The cut this week is going to be ultra competitive with a short field stacked with so many elite players. With the ten shot rule in place there's a chance we might only see a handful go home Friday night if things get really bunched. A missed cut in your lineup is going to be a back breaker, but there will be some really good players going home.
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