Texas Children's Houston Open Betting Preview
The PGA Tour heads west for the first of two events in the Lone Star State in the lead up to The Masters for this week's Texas Children's Houston Open. Memorial Park Golf Course hosts for the sixth time for the 135-player field that got easier for those teeing-it-up following Scottie Scheffler's withdrawal Tuesday morning. Min Woo Lee steps in as the tournament favorite at +1475 odds as one of 18 players in the top-50 in the OWGR making the trip. Last year, Lee (40-1) collected his first Tour victory by one stroke over Scheffler and Gary Woodland.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:30 PM ET Wednesday
Course Overview
Par 70, 7,475 yards
These are the average rankings of the Houston Open champions since 2021:
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 23.8
- SG: Approach: 15.8
- SG: Around-the-Green: 29.8
- SG: Putting: 2.5
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 11.8
- Driving Distance: 13.0
- Driving Accuracy: 32.5
A big change from the Florida Swing, Memorial Park only has four water holes and the public venue has the fewest bunkers of any Tour stop. That's not to say that this will be an easy test for the players as we've seen the winning score as low as 10-under and only four holes played under-par last year. Unusual for a par-70, note that Memorial Park has five par-3s and three par-5s and is a long course with five of the par-4s playing at least 490 yards. Off the tee, players are faced with moderately sized fairways that average 33 yards wide and are surrounded by minimal rough. Combine that with the length of the venue, and we'll have players pulling driver often, putting a premium on distance over accuracy as outlined in the metrics above. The winner has also ranked fifth or better in SG: Putting in all five years. In addition to long hitters and quality putters, I'll also be targeting good approach players from 200+ yards.
Course History
The following players have the lowest scoring average at Memorial Park over the last five years (minimum eight rounds played):
- Alejandro Tosti: 66.8
- Tony Finau: 67.1
- Gary Woodland: 67.4
- Stephan Jaeger: 67.5
- Mackenzie Hughes: 67.8
Maybe not a name you'd expect to see at the top of the list, Tosti has saved his best golf for the venue with eight rounds of 68 or better leading to a pair of top-5s in both of his appearances. That's surprising considering he only has one other career top-5. Since regaining his card at Q-School in December, Tosti missed six straight cuts to start the year before posting a T30 last week. He's a massive longshot at 240-1. Meanwhile, Woodland similarly broke out of a slump at the Copperhead Course with his first top-15 since last May. Since missing the cut in his debut at Memorial Park, he's gone T9-T21-T2 since and has dominated via his iron play, gaining 1.49 strokes on approach per round across that stretch. I like Woodland (94-1 odds) as a placement bet possibility or as a low-cost DFS option.
Current Form
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes on approach across their last 20 rounds:
- Ryan Gerard: 0.98
- Adam Scott: 0.97
- Kurt Kitayama: 0.87
- Chris Gotterup: 0.73
- Shane Lowry: 0.71
Gerard was the golf darling early on after starting the year with back-to-back runner-up finishes, and although he's cooled off since, he still tops this list with the iron play remaining sharp as he's sixth in SG: Approach thus far. The fourth-year Tour pro made his Houston debut last year and ranked second on approach en route to a top-10 finish. He's tied for the 11th choice on the board at 36-1 odds. Slightly ahead of him is Kitayama (26-1), who has carried the momentum of a strong summer in 2025 to this year with a shared runner-up at Riviera. He ranks in the top-25 in SG: Off-the-Tee and approach and has made the cut in both of his appearances here. If the putter cooperates, Kitayama is a strong candidate to work his way into contention.
Texas Children's Houston Open Bets: Outright Picks
Jake Knapp (+2350)
Prior to a back issue that caused him to withdraw at Bay Hill and led to a MC by one shot at TPC Sawgrass, Knapp was playing as well as nearly anyone with four straight top-10s including two in signature events. I expect him to get back on a track after a week off at a venue that fits his length and putting strengths.
Keith Mitchell (+4100)
Mitchell ranks 12th in SG: Off-the-Tee, and he'll benefit from this being a driver heavy course. The problem is that he's only gained strokes on the greens twice this year but one of those led to a T6. Mitchell has shown form here, most notably posting a top-10 in 2023 and a top-20 last year.
Stephan Jaeger (+6400)
Jaeger's lone Tour victory came here two years ago, and he's avoided an over-par round across his last 13 rounds at Memorial Park. His results have been inconsistent, but when he's in form he gets into contention as evidenced by a top-5 at Torrey Pines and a top-10 at the Valspar last week.
Texas Children's Houston Open Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Tony Finau (+490)
Finau has quietly showed signs of form the last two months, making 5-of-6 cuts with three top-20s. Maybe that's not eye-popping, but then again, he had gone 10 events without one. This is a great spot for the 2023 champion to keep the momentum rolling, as he also posted a T2 the year after.
Michael Brennan (+700)
Brennan will be making his Memorial Park debut, and he should be a strong course fit as one of the longer hitters in the field. We saw the rookie's potential when he won in his first PGA Tour start of the year in Utah, but he's struggled mightily on the greens. Hopefully a switch to Texas gets him back on track in that regard.
William Mouw (+750)
Mouw started the year slow with a T71 and three missed cuts thereafter before recording a top-10 at PGA National and a top-25 at THE PLAYERS. I'll ride the momentum on the 25-year-old, who featured a great combination of length and accuracy off-the-tee combined with a solid long-iron game.
Texas Children's Houston Open Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Rasmus Hojgaard (-104) over Sam Stevens
Coming off a second straight 2-0 week in matchups, I'll start off with Hojgaard. He stands out to me in this H2H mainly due to being a better course fit as the much longer hitter and superior putter. He struggled the last few weeks but getting out of Florida and using his distance advantage should do him well. Hojgaard finished a respectable T32 here last year. Stevens on the other hand has failed to gain shots with his ball striking in all three trips to Houston.
Taylor Pendrith (-115) over Pierceson Coody
I'm buying the dip on Pendrith, who has statistically played better than his results would indicate as he's 28th in SG: Tee-to-Green but has regressed with the putter. He's a long hitter that finished T5 here last year. Coody has cooled off after a hot start to the year, missing the cut in two of his last three starts and has modest finishes of T57-T52 at Memorial Park.
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