Dak Prescott

Prescott began last season with a broken thumb Week 1. He returned Week 7, only to have interceptions plague him the rest of the way. Despite missing five games, he tied for the league lead with 15 INTs. But the picks weren’t all on Prescott. In fact, his on-target percentage was at least 75 percent for the fourth consecutive season (6th last year). The biggest problem was his receivers. Prescott had the highest rate of tight-window throws in the league at 19.1 percent because his receivers averaged just 3.2 yards of separation, third fewest in the NFL -- 12 interceptions came on routes with three yards or less of separation. With Amari Cooper gone and Michael Gallup coming off an ACL tear, CeeDee Lamb was the lone playmaker. That impacted Prescott's downfield throwing too. His 8.8-yard average target depth ranked eighth in the league, but he completed only 37.2 percent of his attempts of 20-plus yards (17th). The Cowboys traded for the speedy Brandin Cooks, and Gallup should be improved a year further removed from injury. The team did not re-sign dump-off-catching tight end Dalton Schultz, instead going with Jake Ferguson and second-round rookie Luke Schoonmaker. The biggest wild card, though, is head coach Mike McCarthy taking over play calling after the departure of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. If all goes right, Dak could be a top-10 QB, but he no longer has the rushing upside (18 rush TD in his first 48 games; eight in his last 49) to bolster his fantasy production.

Prescott bounced back from a season-ending ankle injury in 2020 to post career highs in completion percentage (68.8) and TD passes (37) last season — without the benefit of a 17th game as he missed a week with a calf injury. He wasn’t as efficient yardage-wise compared to previous years — in 2019 he threw for 453 more yards on the same 596 attempts he had last season — but his 7.5 YPA still ranked 10th. Prescott scuffled in the aftermath of the calf injury with 6.5 YPA, 9/6 TD/INT and 35 rushing yards over the following seven games, but he turned it around the final three weeks with 12/0 TD/INT, 8.2 YPA and 41 rushing yards. Prescott’s running has declined from his early years — and probably isn’t coming back — but he nonetheless finished QB7 last season in fantasy. This season, he’ll have to do it without Amari Cooper, who was traded to Cleveland, and Cedrick Wilson, who signed with Miami, leaving behind a combined 1,467 receiving yards and 14 TDs. What’s more, Michael Gallup is working his way back from a Week 17 ACL tear. It’s not all bad, as CeeDee Lamb returns as the new No. 1 receiver, TE Dalton Schultz is coming off a breakout season and the backfield tandem of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard (86 combined receptions) demands attention from defenses. The Cowboys also drafted OL Tyler Smith in the first round to fortify an offensive line that lost La’el Collins and Connor Williams but still has two All-Pros in LT Tyron Smith and RG Zack Martin. Another top-10 fantasy season is well within reach for Prescott.

Prescott was on a record-setting clip before breaking his ankle Week 5 last season. Entering that game he was on pace for 6,700 passing yards, after becoming the second player in NFL history with three consecutive games of 400-plus. But his average target depth was just 7.9 yards (23rd, min. 220 attempts), and while he went downfield at a solid rate, it wasn't off the charts — 12.6 percent of his attempts went at least 20 yards, sixth in the league. Prescott gobbled up yards thanks to volume — a ton of volume. Through four games, he was on pace for 800 attempts. That was clearly unsustainable, but his TD pass rate also might have increased had he kept playing — only three of his 20 red-zone attempts went for touchdowns for an absurdly low 15 percent red-zone TD rate. In any event, Prescott is expected to be healthy for Week 1 after undergoing two surgeries for a compound fracture and dislocation of his right ankle. The Cowboys were confident enough to sign him to a four-year, $160 million contract with $126 million guaranteed. When he returns, he'll again have a talented group of playmakers to target in Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb. And even without a record number of pass attempts, his fantasy value has a solid floor because of his rushing game. He has 24 rushing TDs in five seasons (three last year) and averaged about 305 rushing yards per season 2016-19. It will help too if the offensive line returns to health after last year's devastating injuries. As long as he's healthy, Prescott is a safe fantasy bet.

Expectations were high for Prescott entering last season, and he lived up to even the loftiest, finishing second in QB fantasy scoring. His 4,902 passing yards, which fell one yard short of the franchise single-season record, ranked second in the NFL, and he also finished fourth in TD passes (30) and fifth in YPA (8.2). His career year was due in part to refined throwing mechanics, improved footwork and better weight distribution that he said allowed him to get more torque on the ball. That helped him improve his bad-pass percentage to 18.5 (7th), and his 65.1 completion percentage (13th) would have been higher had it not been for a league-leading 43 dropped passes - 7.2 percent, highest among QBs with at least 300 attempts. He also increased his average depth of target by nearly two full yards - 8.0 to 9.9, ranking fourth. After struggling in the red zone in 2018, he improved his TD percentage by nearly 10 points to 26.2, but the Cowboys didn't pass much in the red zone (27th), especially inside the 10 (29th). Perhaps that changes with new head coach Mike McCarthy, though OC Kellen Moore is back for his second season after taking the offense from 22nd to first in yards last season. The dual-threat Prescott again has quality receivers in Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and first-round pick CeeDee Lamb, plus elite RB Ezekiel Elliott. And even with center Travis Frederick retiring, Dallas still has a star-studded O-line. The biggest issue might be Prescott's contract, though his decision to sign a franchise tag suggests he isn't anticipating a holdout.

Prescott hasn't quite delivered on the promise of his rookie season, but respectable passing efficiency (67.7 completion percentage, 7.4 YPA last season) combined with excellent running ability (six rushing TDs every year) make him an intriguing fantasy quarterback. The biggest thing for him last year was the midseason addition of wide receiver Amari Cooper. In nine weeks with Cooper in the offense, Prescott averaged 19.3 fantasy points, completing 71.3 percent of his passes for 7.7 YPA, 14 touchdowns (six to Cooper) and four interceptions, with 274 passing yards per game. With or without Cooper, Prescott struggled in the red zone all year - he converted just 17.1 percent of his red-zone pass attempts into touchdowns, 30th of 33 qualified QBs. Maybe the unretired Jason Witten can help with that this season. In addition to Witten, Randall Cobb is new to the team, replacing Cole Beasley in the slot. Wideout Michael Gallup should contribute more in his second year, too. With Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield, defenses usually will be focused first on stopping the run, which perhaps helps the passing game. All in all, Prescott is set up with his best opportunity for fantasy success yet.

After an impressive rookie season, Prescott disappointed last year. He went from fourth in the league in YPA to 20th, his completion percentage dropped by five points and, worst of all, his interceptions ballooned from four to 13. The only thing that kept him afloat was a second straight year with six rushing touchdowns, along with an uptick from 4.9 YPC to 6.3. While his decision-making was suspect, especially in the red zone where he threw three interceptions (2nd in NFL) and took six sacks (3rd), Prescott didn't get a lot of help from the rest of the offense. The line lacked depth and suffered injuries, most significantly to Tyron Smith; Dez Bryant caught just 52.3 percent of his targets and the wideouts averaged a mere 3.8 yards after catch; and, of course, Ezekiel Elliott was suspended six games. Without Elliott, Prescott broke 200 yards passing just twice and threw seven interceptions as defenses dropped into coverage without fear of the running game. Smith missed the first two of those games and Prescott was sacked 12 times, accounting for more than a third of his season total. The Cowboys added depth to the line this offseason, but health is probably more important. Big changes came to the pass catchers - namely, Bryant was released and tight end Jason Witten retired - but there is seemingly little to get excited about. The Cowboys added Allen Hurns, who hasn't played a full season since 2014, and Tavon Austin, whose best position might be punt returner. Incumbent starter Terrance Williams is coming off foot surgery and was arrested in May. In a run-first offense, Prescott might be relegated to a game-manager role, but his rushing ability at least gives him some stability.

Prescott was handed the starting job last year when Tomo Romo got hurt in preseason, and the rookie never gave it back. He stepped into a great situation for a young quarterback with perhaps the league's best offensive line protecting him -- he was sacked only 25 times (23rd) and knocked down an additional 2.6 times per game -- and a workhorse running back in fellow rookie Ezekiel Elliott with whom to share the playmaking duties. With Elliott chewing up five yards a rush, little was asked of Prescott other than to not make mistakes. And that he did superbly, throwing only four interceptions for a 0.9 INT rate that ranked second to only Tom Brady's. His completion percentage and YPA both ranked fourth in the league in an impressive debut that proved his athleticism, arm strength and leadership are legit as he took the Cowboys to the No. 1 playoff seed in the NFC. Although Elliott is still the show, Prescott likely will see more pass attempts this year (23rd last year), and if playmaking wide receiver Dez Bryant stays healthy for the first time in three years, that should mean bigger passing numbers for the quarterback, giving him a shot to stay in the top 10 at the position due in large part to his running upside (six TDs last year).

After a stellar career at Mississippi State, Prescott was drafted in the fourth round to potentially become the Cowboys' quarterback of the future, but Tony Romo suffered yet another debilitating injury this preseason, thrusting the rookie into the limelight for earlier than expected. While Prescott has the size, athleticism and arm strength NFL teams look for, as well as proven leadership qualities, his pocket awareness was considered shaky coming out of college and his throwing mechanics needed overhauling. Alas, through three exhibitions, he's tossed five touchdowns and rushed for two additional scores.