RBC Canadian Open One and Done Picks
The Canadian Open has been around since 1904, and over the years 35 different venues have hosted the National Open. The latest is the redesigned North Course at TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley, where the event was held last year and will be held again both this summer and in 2027. In 2025 there were theatrics, as Ryan Fox outlasted Sam Burns in a playoff to pick up the victory.
For years the main storyline coming into the Canadian Open was when a native son would break the curse and win his home event. That question was answered in 2023 when Nick Taylor emerged victorious in a thrilling playoff over Tommy Fleetwood to become the first Canadian to win the Canadian Open since 1954. There are a number of talented Canadians in this week's field -- Taylor included -- who would love to give the home crowd another reason to celebrate.
It will be a tough group to outlast, though, as seven of the top 20 in the Official World Golf Ranking are teeing it up in Toronto. No. 4 Matt Fitzpatrick, alongside a trio of fellow Englishmen in Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood and Aaron Rai, will be on hand. Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland and Brooks Koepka are in the field after not playing the Memorial. This is a tough spot on the schedule between a Signature Event and a major, but tournament officials have to be pretty happy with the field of 147 players they have assembled.
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Course Tidbits
- Course: TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley -- North Course (7,389 yards, par 70)
- Location: Caledon, Ontario, Canada
- Purse: $9.8 million -- $1.764 million to winner
- Defending Champion: Ryan Fox (-18)
- 2025 Scoring Average: 68.745 (-1.255)
- 2025 36-Hole Cut: -3
- Average Winning Score Last 4 Years: -17.5
Last year we were going into this event somewhat blind having not seen the golf course before. This year, though, we have some idea what to expect. As a par-70 at nearly 7,400 yards, distance was pretty pivotal a year ago. Fox, Burns, Cameron Young, Kevin Yu, Byeong Hun An and Cameron Champ are all known for their distance and finished top-10 last year. Putting was also highly correlated to success, with Matt McCarty finishing T4 while leading the field in SG: Putting. Fox, Burns and Young all have the ideal build for this place as bombers who are also quality putters.
With six par-5s stretching over 480 yards, there should be plenty of long irons into the greens. Proximity from 200-250 yards should be critical when it comes to separating. The course also has a number of short holes where proximity in the 100-150 yard range should be tested more than the average PGA Tour course. The 150-200 yard approach range is normally key from week-to-week, but this time around there won't be many approaches that fall in that range.
We're expecting to see rain throughout the week at TPC Toronto, which should make the fairways wider and the greens more receptive. That said, the wind is going to be a bit more gusty than we have seen in recent weeks, which could present its own set of challenges. Overall, the bombers and top putters should be able to thrive here, but don't overlook the key proximity buckets mentioned above. Large greens and moderate-to-easy conditions should reduce the importance of around the green play, especially compared to what we saw last week at Muirfield Village.
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RBC Canadian Open: One and Done Picks
It's not often that I base my pick primarily on a hunch, but things haven't gone well this season, so I'll try to shake things up a bit this week. Don't get me wrong, it's not like there aren't any reasons to like Lowry here, but there are certainly better plays on paper at least. With that said, I think Lowry was ready to make a run at the Memorial until the gaff on the 18th green in round three. I think that episode not only put him out of position going into the final round, but it might have derailed him a bit mentally as well. With a few days to clear his head, he'll realize that his game is almost there, and if he stays focused, he could win this week. --Greg Vara
I don't have much to lose this week as far down in the standings as I am. Had I been closer to the top in the standings I probably would have gone with Burns or Wyndham Clark, both of whom are ideal course fits as bombers who putt very well and are in excellent form. That said, the younger Fitzpatrick I think has incredibly high upside this week. Since earning a PGA Tour card with older brother Matt at the Zurich Classic, Alex has posted three top-10 finishes in Signature Events, including last week at the Memorial, where he played most of the tournament without a driver. Assuming Fitzpatrick has a backup driver he likes ready to go for the Canadian Open, he should be in the mix at TPC Toronto. The ball striking has been sensational, but the putting has been average. Fitzpatrick is due for a pop week on the greens, and if that happens, it's hard to see him not holding the trophy at the end of the week. --Ryan Andrade
Fleetwood came close to winning for the second time on the PGA Tour last week at the Memorial. He wound up tied for fourth -- his second top-5 in his past three starts. He is not the longest hitter, but he's not short. He's not the best putter, but he's better than average. Fleetwood is also ranked an elite 10th on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green, with a No. 1 overall ranking in SG: Around-the-Green contributing mightily to that total. --Len Hochberg
Burns finished runner-up at TPC Toronto a year ago and is currently playing his best golf of the season. After finishing T4 at the Memorial last week, he ranks second among this field in SG: Putting and fifth in SG: Total, a fitting profile at a course whose winner will need a strong performance on the greens to make it happen. The wide fairways and undulating green complexes should reward the momentum Burns has been building toward all spring. --Lauren Jump
One thing Noren is no stranger to is winning, and that's obviously what we're looking for in this format. The 43-year-old has won 12 times on the DP World Tour, including the flagship BMW PGA Championship last fall. That had him up to 11th in the OWGR, and he's finally showing that form again with a pair of top-10s across his last three Signature Events. Outside of being a short hitter, Noren does everything else at an elite level. He's not a guy that's a must target for me in elevated events, and this may be one of the last non-Signature Events to use him. --Ryan Pohle
Burns has enjoyed his trips north of the border, racking up three top-10s over the last four years -- including the second-place result he posted at TPC Toronto last season. Burns ranked second in that field in SG: Total, and in this field he ranks ninth in the same department over the last month. He has been a bit wayward on approach, but if he hits greens in Toronto like he did last year another high finish should be in store. --Kevin O'Brien
RBC Canadian Open: One and Done Fades
He's a big name in a field that doesn't have a lot of big names, but I don't think this is the spot to use Morikawa. The Cal product has been battling a back injury all season and while it looked like he finally got past that in April, his two most recent starts have brought back some concern. It might be that he's healthy again, but his game was just off in his two most recent starts, but whatever the reason, I don't think Morikawa is making a run this week. If anything, he'll use this week to gauge where he's at as the U.S. Open approaches. --Greg Vara
I really just do not know where Morikawa's game is at right now. He has played just twice since mid-April and that was a T62 at Doral and a T55 at the PGA Championship. He elected to skip the Memorial last week, a course where he has a win and two runner-up finishes. It's a bit of an interesting choice to play this event instead where he has only played once before and that was way back in 2019. Nevertheless, Morikawa is likely to play in the Travelers too the week after the U.S. Open, so four in a row would have been tough. Even if he was playing well, Morikawa isn't the ideal course fit we are looking for. There certainly will be better opportunities to use him down the line if you still have him available in OAD on a course where short-to-mid irons will be used more and where the distance/putting combination doesn't appear to be the meta. --Ryan Andrade
Can we just say all Canadians? No, that would be rude. For years, Connors was Canada's top player, and every year he arrived at this tournament as The Great Hope. This season, Conners has not been great, wouldn't even be in the playoffs if they started today. He hasn't finished better than a tie for 30th in almost three months. His once-vaunted approach game has been off for two seasons now. --Len Hochberg
Theegala did not play at TPC Toronto last year, so he arrives with zero course history to lean on. His recent form doesn't fill that gap either, as he averaged -0.46 SG: Total and -0.16 SG: Putting over his last 20 rounds -- concerning numbers on a course that requires positive contributions on the greens. Too many players in this field are showcasing stronger form to justify a pick here. --Lauren Jump
Fleetwood will be tempting for many as the tournament favorite after posting top-5s in back-to-back Signature Events, but do we really want to use him in a event with a smaller prize pool? His iron play also hasn't been to his usual standard as of late, as he's lost strokes on approach in three of his last five tournaments. Fleetwood also skipped this event last year, so it will be his first time seeing the course. Even though we're into June now, there will still be some good spots to use him, especially considering his best golf was in the summer last year. --Ryan Pohle
Koepka finds himself among the favorites, but as of late May he was still trying to find the putter, which is not great at a course that favors success on the greens. It has been a while since Koepka played in Canada, and he may be viewing this appearance as simply a tune-up for the U.S. Open, so I'm passing in all regards. --Kevin O'Brien
Don't get burned by late withdrawals. Visit RotoWire's PGA tournament field page for a live-updated summary of the field for the current week and list of players who have dropped out.
