Weekly Fantasy Golf Preview: U.S. Open

U.S. Open

Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Southampton, NY

The PGA Tour heads to New York for another edition of the U.S. Open.

A great win by Bud Cauley this past week in Canada. A win that really deserves more time here, but it's U.S. Open week, so all I'm permitted to do is say congrats, and move on.

Okay, onto the season's third major. The first was one by a big name, the second, not so much. What will the third one bring?

As is the custom here, we're going to look at the storylines heading into this week.

Since the U.S. Open has supplied some real upsets in the past, I'm not going to go out on a limb and say a big name will win this week, but obviously, we have to look at those names first.

• Scottie Scheffler will try to complete the career Grand Slam this week and I dare say, he's got a good chance. It's not often that we have anyone trying to complete the career grand slam with odds so low, so technically, he's got a good chance, but we'll get into that later.
• Rory McIlroy already has the career grand slam, but his sights are on moving up the career majors list. He proved earlier this year that he's not satisfied with the career grand slam, that he's got plenty left in the tank and the desire is still there.
• Jon Rahm leads the charge for the LIV players, a distinction that may not even exist at this time next year, but that's a different matter. Rahm made a run at the PGA Championship and looks poised to make another this week.
• Cameron Young is having a career year, but is he ready to win a major? He leads a list of guys yet to win a major and while his season has been great, he seems to have lost some momentum lately.
• Tommy Fleetwood got the monkey off his back this past season, finally winning on the PGA Tour, but he's yet to take his game to another level this season. A win this week would certainly qualify as a step up.
• Aaron Rai looked like a man in complete control at the PGA Championship in May, does any of that confidence carry over to Shinnecock?
• Bryson DeChambeau has been a non-factor at the first two majors. He's won this event twice, does that change his prospects for this week?
• Will Ludvig Aberg beat Cameron Young to the finish line? Aberg is developing a reputation as someone who struggles to close, especially in big spots. Can he close if he gets out to a lead?

Many more storylines out there and I can't get into all of them now, but as is always the case, there will be stories that emerge as the week wears on. Was anyone talking about Aaron Rai early in the week during the PGA Championship?

We're back at Shinnecock Hills this week. The last time the U.S. Open was held here, in 2018, there wasn't a single player under par at the end of the week. This should be a classic U.S. Open where birdies are hard to come by and pars are golden.

For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, tournament participation and overall golfer performance, head to RotoWire's latest golf news or follow @RotoWireGolf on X.

FAVORITES

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 6:30 PM ET Tuesday.

Scottie Scheffler (11-2) 

It feels like Scheffler is in the midst of a down season, but he has one win and six top-5s, including three runner-ups. The problem is that he won so early in the season and looked good so often that the fact he hasn't found another win feels like this season has been a letdown. Even if you're in the camp that feels Scheffler is having a down year, there's still plenty of time to turn that around. A win this week would change the outlook on this season entirely. Suddenly he'd have his career grand slam and two wins, with plenty of events left. Scheffler has the right mindset to succeed at the U.S. Open and the fact that this looks like a really difficult test, should only help his cause this week.  

Rory McIlroy (12-1)

McIlroy's performance at the U.S. Open was quite erratic to start his career. He won the 2021 U.S. Open, but he also missed the cut in five of his first ten starts. After that however, he got on a roll, finishing in the top-10 in six straight U.S. Opens. That streak started the year after missing the cut at Shinnecock in 2018. The question then is, did he figure something out about Open setups after 2018, or does he have issues with this course. He finished the 2018 Open at +10, so he obviously had issues that year with Shinnecock. My guess is that not only did he figure something out about the Open setups, but he probably learned a lot about the course that year as well. He'll likely play much better this time around, but I'm not sure I like him at this price.   

Jon Rahm (13-1)

The LIV drama didn't seem to affect Rahm at the PGA Championship and I don't think it will matter here either. Of all the LIV players, Rahm seems to have retained focus on the majors better than anyone. DeChambeau has had more success, but his awful performance this season makes me wonder if he's got the focus needed to compete this week. As for Rahm, if not for an incredible performance from Rai at the PGA Championship, Rahm might have his third major already.  The key for Rahm this week is keeping his cool. This course is going to frustrate everyone at some point. It will be paramount for Rahm to keep his head after he gets a bad break or two, which everyone will experience at some point.

Visit our golf betting section for the latest PGA odds and finishing props from multiple sportsbooks.

THE NEXT TIER

Matt Fitzpatrick (20-1)

Fitzpatrick has been on a tear this season and I'm sure he'd like to capitalize on his form by winning his second major. Fitzpatrick's lone major win was a U.S. Open, but he's not really had much success outside of that win. That's not to say that he's struggled here though. His track record at the Open is quite strange. He's missed just one cut in 11 starts, but his lone top-10 was his win in 2022. He came close to a top-10 in 2018 however as he managed a T12 at Shinnecock. With an improved game and two wins under his belt already this season, I think he can make another run at a major.

Cameron Young (22-1)

Young had far too much steam heading into the PGA Championship this past month, but since he's cooled a bit, he's coming in a bit under the radar this week. Young's first U.S. Open was in 2019, so he missed the Shinnecock Open by a year. Considering he missed his first three U.S. Open cuts, he probably wouldn't have fared well in 2018 anyway, but even two rounds might have helped him this time around. With that said, Young's game is so different now than it was seven years ago and he proved that this past year when he finished T4 at the U.S. Open. Young's game has improved a lot even since then, so another run this year wouldn't surprise me at all.   

Sam Burns (35-1)          

Burns is close right now. He's had trouble closing the past couple weeks, but he's put himself in a good spot entering the weekend. If he does that again here, he might be able to close. Burns finished inside the top-10 at the Masters earlier this year and he just missed the top-25 at the PGA Championship this past month. I mentioned that to point out that he's getting better at the majors and while winning one is a whole different level, no one expected Rai to make that jump a month ago, so really, if any of these guys in the second-tier get it going, they're capable of winning.   

Looking to place a bet for this week's PGA Tour event? Check out the best golf betting sites, featuring comprehensive sportsbook reviews and a summary of new customer bonus offers.

LONG SHOTS

Tyrrell Hatton (40-1)

The variations on the betting board are rather odd. There are the customary guys at the top, and then some just outside that group, but after that, there are only a handful of golfers in-between the favorites and the long shots, if you consider 50-1 a long shot, which I do. Anyhow, Hatton is at the back end of the middle tier at 40-1. Hatton played well at the Masters earlier this year, but he missed the cut at the PGA Championship. He's fared pretty well at the U.S. Open throughout the years, he finished T4 this past year and he also fared well at Shinnecock in 2018, when he landed in the top-6.    

Justin Thomas (45-1)   

The U.S. Open has not been Thomas' best major throughout the years, he's missed five cuts in 11 starts, but he has managed a couple top-10s at this event. He also managed a top-25 at Shinnecock in 2018. The reason I think he has a chance this week though is the newly wider fairways at Shinnecock. That, and he looked really good at the PGA Championship this past month. He enters this week on a streak of four top-20s, so we know his form is good enough to contend. He'll just need to find that extra gear to pull off a win this week. We know he has it in him though.  

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Jon Rahm – If you're like me, you can no longer use Rahm, but if you were smart and you held off until now, then this is a great time to use Rahm. I've held the theory for the past few years that it's best to use the LIV players during the majors because, one, it's the only time you can use them, and two, it saves other players for remaining events. That theory has backfired on me this season because I took Rahm at the Masters and DeChambeau at the PGA Championship, but if you still have Rahm at the ready, then I would use him here.    

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Cameron Young – We're starting to get to the point in the season where I'm not sure who has which players left and while I'm sure a lot of OAD players used Young already, I think there is a group (and I'm in that group) that missed out on his hot streak earlier this season. If you are in that group, this could be a good time to use Young. As mentioned earlier, he's a little under the radar this week because his pace has fallen off some, but that's exactly where you want to be heading into a major.     

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Justin Thomas – If your OAD league is anything like my U.S. Open draft, then JT might be coming in under the radar as well. The reason is his historical performances at the U.S. Open, which aren't great. The reason for that is JT can get a little wild off the tee, and while that's usually a big problem at the U.S. Open, it might not be as much of an issue this week as one of the main talking points this week has been the widened fairways at Shinnecock. JT showed a lot at the PGA Championship this past month and if he brings that form into this week, he could be a contender.       

Buyer Beware: Bryson DeChambeau – There's some steam on DeChambeau this week because he's a two-time winner of the U.S. Open and I get that. The wider fairways at Shinnecock should also help his cause, but I'm just not sure his game is anywhere close to where it needs to be right now to contend at a major. He was so far off at both the Masters and the PGA Championship that I wonder if there's something going on either mentally or physically with him. Physically he's looked fine, but the mental part would be easily explainable as the league he's touted for the past five years is crumbling before his eyes and that must have some kind of effect on him. For a guy like Rahm, not so much as I don't think he's ever fully bought into LIV.       

My Pick: Xander Schauffele – I really like Justin Thomas this week, but I'm going with the more reliable Schauffele in this spot. Outside of Scheffler, I don't think there is a safer pick on the board. Schauffele has never missed a cut at the U.S. Open and he's landed in the top-10 seven times! He's yet to win a U.S. Open, but he is a two-time major winner, so it would seem just a matter of time before he captures this title. His form is a little suspect entering this week, but he did post a top-10 at the PGA Championship this past month. He's going to be a popular play this week though, so if you're looking to gain a lot of ground, you may want to look elsewhere.      

Previous Results

View the PGA earnings report to find total winnings and winnings per entry via our fantasy golf stats pages.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Xander Schauffele ($11,600)
Middle Range: Justin Thomas ($10,000)
Lower Range: Gary Woodland ($8,700)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Xander Schauffele – This one is pretty easy. I already mentioned he's the safest pick outside of Scheffler, but he actually has one up on Scheffler this week as Schauffele played Shinnecock in 2018. Not only did he play, but he played it well, finishing T6. Schauffele is in a great spot to succeed this week. He's got a great track record at the U.S. Open and he's not garnering a ton of attention heading into the week.    

Previous Results