2026 U.S. Open Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

The best bets and picks for the 126th U.S. Open Championship this week. See why Ryan Pohle loves Jon Rahm's odds for a strong showing at Shinnecock Hills.

June 16, 2026

2026 U.S. Open Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

By:

Ryan Pohle

June 16, 2026

Golf Picks

U.S. Open Betting Preview

The third major championship of the year is upon us as the 126th U.S. Open heads back to Shinnecock Hills in Southampton, New York on Long Island.

Brooks Koepka -- at 25-1 odds -- picked up the trophy when Shinnecock last hosted in 2018. This time around, there will be a 156-player field that includes 13 LIV golfers and is headlined by Scottie Scheffler, the tournament favorite at +455. The world's top golfer will be looking to secure the career Grand Slam in his first opportunity to do so.

Last year, long-shot J.J. Spaun (150-1) won by two strokes at Oakmont for his first major and second PGA Tour victory.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 5:00 PM ET Tuesday

Course Overview

Par 70, 7,440 yards

These are the average rankings of U.S. Open champions over the last five years:

SG: Off-the-Tee: 8.8
SG: Approach: 22.0
SG: Around-the-Green: 12.4
SG: Putting: 16.0
SG: Tee-to-Green: 8.8
Driving Distance: 15.6
Driving Accuracy: 28.8

Although not every U.S. Open venue favors the same characteristics, the above metrics are a good reference point. We know that the USGA prefers carnage, with the average winning score being roughly five-under since 2021. And that doesn't include the last time the event was held at Shinnecock Hills when the winning score was over-par. Only the two par-5s played under-par that year and a whopping 11 holes played at least a quarter of a shot over par.

So what makes this place so difficult? Off the tee, the landing areas are generous with the fairways averaging around 45 yards wide. However, thick fescue rough and tricky lies will punish wayward tee shots and give this course somewhat of a links feel with its few trees. And of course, everything is made more difficult due to minimal protection from the wind on the island. If you can find the fairway, greens are still difficult to hit due to the small greens that require precision due to the runoffs around the edges. In 2018, players hit greens in regulation about 55 percent of the time, down significantly from the Tour average of roughly two-thirds. Five par-4s over 480 yards also makes the course play long. Overall, I'm giving a slight advantage to the accurate hitters, targeting good iron players from 150-200 yards and golfers with a good track history in majors and on difficult courses.

U.S. Open History

The following players have the lowest scoring average at U.S. Open setups since 2021:

McIlroy had been as consistent as the come at the USGA's flagship event with four top-10s, although it hasn't come without some heartbreak. After coming up one shy of Wyndham Clark at LACC, it's difficult to forget the short par putt miss at Pinehurst on the closing hole two years ago that would've led to a playoff against Bryson DeChambeau. A two-time major champion since, McIlroy is the second choice at +940. A player on this list looking for his first U.S. Open title is Morikawa (39-1), who has posted a top-25 every year since 2021, highlighted by a pair of top-5s. Since hurting his back at TPC Sawgrass, Morikawa has not driven the ball well and hasn't finished in the top-25 in his last three starts. Nevertheless, he's still one of the best iron players in the world and seems to rise to the occasion when he gets overlooked.

Tee-to-Green Tacticians

These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes from tee to green across their last 20 rounds:

Tee to green play will likely be a key statistic this week as Shinnecock is going to test every club in the bag, and Scheffler leads the field in the category as of late. It hasn't led to a win since his first event of the season, but with three runner-up finishes since The Masters, a stretch of wins like we've seen the last couple of years feels as if it's just around the corner. Scheffler is gaining a whopping 1.70 strokes on approach per round across his last four U.S. Open appearances. Meanwhile, Cantlay pops up on both lists showing not only his affinity for this major (six top-25s, more than any other) but also a positive trend in his recent play. However, he hasn't truly been in contention to win since last year's Tour Championship, largely due to an inconsistent year on the greens holding him back. But that's largely factored into his 50-1 odds, making him an intriguing value.

U.S. Open Bets: Outright Picks

Jon Rahm (+1175)

The last time we saw Rahm in a major last month, he was bested only by a dominating performance by Aaron Rai. And in his most recent start, he was runner-up to Tyrrell Hatton at LIV Andalucia. The 2021 U.S. Open champion is dialed in with all aspects of his game and looks ready to break a major winless drought that dates back to the 2023 Masters.

Russell Henley (39-1)

Back in my majors preview article from December, I locked in Henley at 70-1. The price has dropped nearly in half following a top-5 at The Masters and a win at Colonial a few weeks ago. This major fits him the best as a short, but accurate hitter which has led to a top-15 in four of the last five U.S. Opens.

Adam Scott (74-1)

Scott's track record in majors which consists of nine top-5 finishes makes him a solid longshot target. The 45-year-old is proving that age is just a number, as he's had a resurgent year with a pair of top-5s in signature events. Scott's also leading the Tour in SG: Approach this year.

U.S. Open Bets: Top-10 Wagers

Maverick McNealy (5-1)

Coming off a top-10 hit with Jackson Suber last week, I'll start this week's section with McNealy, who has arguably the best short game in the world as he's top-20 in SG: Around-the-green and putting. That's helped lead to nine top-25s across 14 starts. And a quality short game is a nice asset to have on a week where players are constantly scrambling for par.

Gary Woodland (+850)

Another past U.S. Open champion that's a part of my betting card, Woodland has been a top-20 player over the last three months with a win and four other top-20s. He led the field in SG: Off-the-tee at the Memorial and is third in the category for the season.

Jason Day (+970)

Day hasn't been playing great of late, but with that can come some disrespect from the oddsmakers. We have a veteran with five top-10s at U.S. Open's and a top-15 in three of his last seven majors. While the ball striking has dipped, there aren't many guys better than Day from 100 yards and in.

U.S. Open Bets: Head-to-Head Matchup

Tommy Fleetwood (-114) over Cameron Young

The last time Fleetwood saw this course, he fired a Sunday 63 to come up one short. He's always an enticing option in majors having posted seven top-5s including three at the U.S. Open. Young will have a lot of bettors backing him due to his ties to the area and overall play this year, but I can't overlook that after a stretch of six top-10s across seven events this spring, he's failed to post a top-25 in his last two and this has historically been his worst of the four majors.

U.S. Open Bets: First Round Leader

Patrick Reed (46-1)

I had Bud Cauley in this section last week, so maybe that's a good omen for Reed's chances of winning. He goes off in the early wave Thursday morning and has posted top-10 opening rounds in both majors this year. Reed excels at stepping up on the big stage and was fourth here in 2018.

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