UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC Freedom 250 - Topuria vs. Gaethje
The UFC returns with fights on the White House lawn (yes, really). We'll take a look at each bout on the Freedom 250 card, highlighting various ways players can profit. It's important to note that for DraftKings, we are operating in a Captain format, meaning that you can choose one fighter on the slate that will receive 1.5 times the points for 1.5 times the listed price. Our picks this week include a middleweight trying to stop a hype train for good and a kickboxer with his third shot at gold. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Captain Predictions to Consider on DraftKings
Josh Hokit ($13,500) / Derrick Lewis ($9,000)
I'm going to make cases for both fighters in the only three-round heavyweight fight on the card, as both are liable to pile up points with a victory. Those looking to roll with a favorite will find a natural fit with Hokit, whose 9.25 significant strikes landed per minute mark is almost unbelievable in the organization's top weight class. He should also be able to lean on his wrestling background, as Lewis has notched just a 52 percent takedown defense rate during his UFC tenure. Hokit will start fast and won't stop until the fight is over, which all but ensures a big score if he gets his hand raised.
As impressive as he has looked in his first three fights, however, we need to remember that Hokit is only nine fights into his MMA career and has almost certainly never faced a puncher as big as Lewis. While "The Black Beast" has struggled with wrestlers, the majority of those have been submission threats, and "The Incredible Hok" has won just three fights by tapout. Hokit is chaotic and fights like he can't be hurt, which may be all Lewis needs to land the fight-ending blow. Lewis spoke of back issues that led to a listless performance against Waldo Cortes-Acosta. However, a healthy Lewis is still one of the most dangerous fighters in the sport, and Hokit seems destined for an early stumble, regardless of his ultimate trajectory.
Ilia Topuria ($14,400)
As the second-most expensive fighter on this slate, Topuria feels like a bargain. "El Matador" has finished six of his last seven fights and hasn't scored less than 94 DraftKings points since his debut against Youssef Zalal in 2020. While Justin Gaethje notched an impressive win over Paddy Pimblett in January, "The Highlight" is incredibly slow and has absorbed an astounding seven significant strikes per minute over 15 UFC fights. To be clear, Gaethje can give as good as he gets when it comes to power shots, but Ilia will have every imaginable advantage in this one, including a BJJ black belt if the fight hits the floor.
Ciryl Gane ($11,400)
The MMA world is enamored with Alex Pereira as he attempts to secure a title in his third weight class, but I suspect that "Poatan" will run into a pretty hard wall here. In his move up to light heavyweight, the Brazilian looked to wear the extra pounds well, with no noticeable change to his body type. By contrast, Periera appears to have eaten his way to the organization's heaviest division, with the 38-year-old looking more like a blown-up middleweight than a true heavyweight fighter. This will be an issue against Gane, who is one of the most agile fighters in the division. Pereira was already a stationary figure in the cage, and he should find difficulty applying pressure, allowing Gane to score with long-range weapons like jabs and kicks. It's also worth noting that Gane showed improved takedown defense before his fight against Tom Aspinall was halted, which should limit Pereira's opportunities to switch up his game.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider on PrizePicks
Mauricio Ruffy UNDER 32.5 Significant Strikes, Steve Garcia OVER 36.5 Significant Strikes, and Sean O'Malley UNDER 65.5 Significant Strikes
Ruffy and Michael Chandler are two explosive athletes who can end a fight at any time. While he never turns down a firefight, I also expect Chandler to employ a good deal of wrestling here, as the consequences of standing in space with Ruffy have proven dire for the majority of his UFC opponents. Expect some early wall-and-stall by Chandler before the Brazilian ends this fight in space, with room to spare on our total.
I was a bit surprised to see Garcia open as a decent underdog here due to the similarities between this fight and Diego Lopes's bouts with bantamweight champion Alexander Volkanovski. Lopes had trouble with the footwork and movement of "The Great" in both fights, and we have watched Garcia become a tremendous outfighter to complement his speed and power. Unlike Volkanovski, however, Garcia will hold a reach advantage of three inches, which will make the Brazilian's quest to track him down more difficult. This lines up perfectly for our play, as Lopes has shown an indestructible chin, having taken big shots from fighters like Jean Silva and Volk without so much as breaking his stride. This should allow Garcia to pile up the strikes early.
We spoke earlier about the advantages Topuria had over Gaethje, and the same can be said for the dynamics of O'Malley versus Aiemann Zahabi. While Zahabi's boxing and ability to outwork opponents have led to an improbable winning streak, "Suga's" speed, power, and length should leave the 38-year-old without many options as he tries to generate offense. It's been a few years since we have seen the devastation O'Malley is capable of, but he is going to dominate so many areas of this fight that a finish should materialize before he hits this total.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool
UFC Bets to Consider
Kyle Daukaus (+265)
I'm a bit perplexed by this line, as a win over an extremely limited BJJ player like Rodolfo Vieira doesn't do much to erase the image of Bo Nickal getting dominated by Reinier de Ridder. Against Daukaus, Nickal will need to deal with a long, aggressive striker who mixes targets well and has sneaky power. He also features an opportunistic submission game, and we've seen Nickal hesitant to take fighters down if he thinks he can't outgrapple them. It's possible the striking performance we saw against Vieira is a sign of major improvement for Bo, but I will need to see it applied against a higher caliber of fighter before making that determination.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Freedom 250. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section
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