The UFC heads to Perth, Australia, for a solid UFC Perth card on Saturday, May 2. In the main event, former UFC welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena takes on Carlos Prates in a pivotal bout at 170lbs.
Below, I'll share my UFC Perth predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Brando Pericic (6-1) vs. Shamil Gaziev (14-2)
On the main card of UFC Perth, I like Brando Pericic to defeat Shamil Gaziev at heavyweight.
Pericic is 2-0 in the UFC, and this is a step-up in competition facing Gaziev. However, I've never been that high on Gaziev, who's coming off a quick KO loss to Waldo Cortes-Acosta.
I like Pericic to be able to keep this fight standing and land the better shots to overwhelm Gaziev, similar to Cortes-Acosta, and get an early KO/TKO win. Gaziev doesn't throw a ton of volume and has a negative striking differential in the UFC, which should play into Pericic's favor to get a big win in his home country.
UFC Perth Bet: Brando Pericic (-130)
Weight Class: Light heavyweight
Kevin Christian (9-3) vs. Junior Tafa (6-5)
For my underdog pick at UFC Perth, I'll once again be fading the Tafa brothers, who I'm surprised are still in the UFC.
Christian is going into enemy territory, and there is a chance Tafa can catch him early. However, Junior has struggled with grapplers, and Christian is a much better grappler than Tafa.
I like Christian to be able to take down Tafa easily, as he's struggled to defend takedowns in his UFC career. To me, this is a pick'em fight, if not Christian should be a slight favorite, so to get him at +170 makes it a must-play here.
UFC Perth Bet: Kevin Christian (+170)
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Weight Class: Bantamweight
Colby Thicknesse (8-1) vs. Vince Morales (16-10)
For my prop at UFC Perth, I'm taking Colby Thicknesse to defeat Vince Morales by decision.
Morales is on a three-fight losing streak and is likely fighting for his job on Saturday, taking on Thicknessee, who is from Australia. Thicknesse is a main training partner of Alexander Volkanovski and should be a fan-favorite here.
Morales is a tough out for bantamweights, as he's hard to finish, but I do like Thicknesse to be able to grind out a decision. Thicknessee could also use his wrestling if needed, but I like the younger fighter to be able to land the more damaging shots and edge out a decision win here.
UFC Perth: Colby Thicknesse by decision (+110)
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Weight Class: Flyweight & heavyweight
Steve Erceg (21-13-1) vs. Tim Elliot (13-4)
Tai Tuivasa (14-9) vs. Louie Sutherland (10-5)
For my parlay at UFC Perth, I'm taking Steve Erceg and Tai Tuivasa to get their hands raised.
Erceg takes on Tim Elliott, which is a great fight, but I like the Aussie to get the win. Erceg looked good in his last fight to snap his three-fight losing skid, but he looked good against Brandon Moreno and Alexandre Pantoja, showing how high-level he is. I like Erceg to be able to keep this fight standing and land the more damaging shots, as he does have legitimate power and is the better striker. Erceg also throws more volume than Elliott, which should help him edge out a decision.
To close out the parlay, I like Tai Tuivasa to beat Louie Sutherland, which is a fight for Tuivasa to get back on track. Tuivasa has lost six-straight fights, but has been fighting some of the best heavyweights, while Sutherland is 0-2 in the UFC. I like Tuivasa to land something big early that hurts Sutherland to get an early KO win, similar to the Pericic fight.
UFC Perth Bet: Steve Erceg & Tai Tuivasa parlay (+111)
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UFC Perth Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC Perth card.
- Brando Pericic (-130)
- Kevin Christian (+170)
- Colby Thicknesse by decision (+110)
- Steve Erceg & Tai Tuivasa parlay (+111)
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