Top MMA DFS Picks and Strategies for UFC 320
UFC DFS expert picks for this Saturday's UFC 329 card are up, as well as fight-by-fight breakdowns, plus betting and lineup strategy for the entire event. Welcome to Drake's Takes.
UFC Vegas 19 Picks & Career Results:
2026 Overall Picks: 185-74-2
2025 Overall Picks: 345-152-2
DFS Lock of the Week: McKinney
Fanduel Captain: McKinney/Holloway
Conor McGregor (22-6-0) v. Max Holloway (27-9-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 22-6 (19 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Explosive counter striker with elite power and timing
- Still extremely dangerous early, but inactivity and cardio are major concerns
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 27-9 (12 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Elite volume striker with incredible cardio and durability
- Constantly increases his output as fights progress and overwhelms opponents late
DFS Perspective:
I give McGregor one good round to make something happen. If he does not knock Holloway out early, I expect Holloway to completely take over and dominate the fight. The pace, volume and cardio advantage should become more significant with every passing minute. McGregor is dangerous early, but Holloway is the clear preferred side with massive DFS upside if this fight gets beyond the first round.
UFC 329 Pick: Holloway
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Benoit Saint-Denis (17-3-0) v. Paddy Pimblett (23-4-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 17-3 (6 KO/TKO, 11 submissions)
- Relentless pressure fighter with dangerous grappling and finishing ability
- Pushes a brutal pace and constantly looks to overwhelm opponents
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 23-4 (6 KO/TKO, 11 submissions)
- Dangerous grappler with strong submission ability and improving striking
- Durable and capable of creating offense in chaotic exchanges
DFS Perspective:
There is not a lot of value that I like on this card, which makes Pimblett stand out. This fight is probably closer than most people think, and Paddy has enough grappling and finishing ability to make Saint-Denis work everywhere. Saint-Denis is the more relentless fighter, but Pimblett has a real path to winning this fight and profiles as a solid value play.
UFC 329 Pick: Pimblett
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Cory Sandhagen (18-6-0) v. Mario Bautista (17-3-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 18-6 (8 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Creative striker with excellent movement, range management, and volume
- Well-rounded enough to mix in wrestling and make adjustments throughout fights
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 17-3 (3 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)
- High-paced and well-rounded with strong pressure and grappling
- Excels at making fights uncomfortable with constant activity and clinch work
DFS Perspective:
This should be a very close fight between two of the most well-rounded fighters in the division. Bautista's pressure and grappling can make this competitive, but Sandhagen has the upper hand with his length, movement, and striking. I expect both fighters to have their moments, but Sandhagen should be able to make the better adjustments and land the cleaner shots over the course of the fight. Slight lean Sandhagen in a matchup that could go either way.
UFC 329 Pick: Sandhagen
Brandon Royval (17-9-0) v. Lone'er Kavanagh (16-1-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 17-9 (4 KO/TKO, 9 submissions)
- Relentless action fighter with elite pace and dangerous submission ability
- Constantly creates chaos with volume, scrambles, and pressure
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16-1 (4 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Explosive striker with excellent speed and finishing ability
- Continues to improve and proved he belongs near the top of the division in his latest win
DFS Perspective:
Kavanagh proved he belongs at the top with his latest win, but this is another step up in competition. Royval will throw everything he has at him and force a high pace from start to finish. I expect this fight to remain close throughout, making Royval another solid value play on a card where I do not like many of the cheaper options.
UFC 329 Pick: Royval
King Green (35-17-1) v. Terrance McKinney (18-8-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 35-17-1 (12 KO/TKO, 10 submissions)
- Experienced striker with slick boxing and excellent defensive movement
- Has absorbed significant damage late in his career, and durability is becoming a major concern
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 18-8 (9 KO/TKO, 9 submissions)
- Explosive finisher with dangerous power and submission ability
- Pushes an all-out pace early and rarely allows fights to develop slowly
DFS Perspective:
This should be an early finish for McKinney. Green is the more experienced and technical fighter, but his durability has become a serious concern, and McKinney is exactly the type of opponent who can capitalize on that. Whether it comes from his power on the feet or his submission game, I expect McKinney to overwhelm Green early. McKinney profiles as one of the strongest finishing plays on the slate.
UFC 329 Pick: McKinney
Robert Whittaker (26-9-0) v. Nikita Krylov (31-11-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 26-9 (10 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Elite striker with excellent movement, timing, and takedown defense
- Still technically dangerous, but recent durability concerns are becoming difficult to ignore
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 31-11 (13 KO/TKO, 16 submissions)
- Aggressive finisher with dangerous offense on the feet and on the mat
- Constantly looks for a finish and has multiple paths to end fights early
DFS Perspective:
This is a dangerous matchup for Whittaker at this stage of his career. He is still the more polished striker and could absolutely win if he controls the range, but the recent durability concerns make him difficult to trust. Krylov is bigger, aggressive, and capable of finishing the fight anywhere. Slight lean Krylov due to his size and finishing upside, but this is a volatile matchup with strong DFS appeal on both sides.
UFC 329 Pick: Krylov
Gable Steveson (3-0-0) v. Elisha Ellison (5-2-0)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: N/A – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 3-0 (3 KO/TKO)
- Elite wrestler with overwhelming athleticism and physical strength
- Still developing as a mixed martial artist, but has a massive advantage in wrestling
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 5-2 (4 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Powerful heavyweight with dangerous striking and finishing ability
- Most effective when he can keep fights standing and create early exchanges
DFS Perspective:
This feels like another showcase spot for Steveson. Ellison has power and is always dangerous at heavyweight, but the wrestling advantage should be massive. I expect Steveson to dictate where this fight takes place, pile up takedowns and control, and eventually find a finish. Steveson profiles as one of the strongest plays on the slate with a massive DFS ceiling.
UFC 329 Pick: Steveson
Cody Garbrandt (15-7-0) v. Adrian Yanez (17-6-1)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15-7 (11 KO/TKO)
- Former elite boxer with fast hands and legitimate knockout power
- Durability remains a major concern after years of damaging knockout losses
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-6-1 (11 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Sharp boxer with excellent combinations and legitimate finishing power
- Should have a major advantage if he can consistently force Garbrandt into exchanges
DFS Perspective:
This fight should be a cake walk for Yanez. Garbrandt still has speed and power, but his durability cannot be trusted against a striker as dangerous as Yanez. I expect Yanez to find his timing, land something clean, and put Garbrandt away. Yanez profiles as one of the stronger finishing plays on the slate.
UFC 329 Pick: Yanez
Kai Kamaka (18-7-1) v. Luke Riley (13-0-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18-7-1 (3 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Experienced and well-rounded fighter with solid boxing and wrestling
- Difficult to overwhelm and capable of making fights competitive everywhere
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13-0 (9 KO/TKO)
- Undefeated prospect with dangerous power and excellent finishing instincts
- Pushes a strong pace and continues to look more impressive with each fight
DFS Perspective:
Kamaka is a solid veteran and represents another step up in competition for Riley, but the undefeated prospect continues to look like the real deal. Riley should have the edge in power, activity, and finishing upside. Kamaka is durable enough to make this competitive, but I expect Riley to eventually take over and continue his undefeated run. Riley profiles as the preferred side with strong DFS upside.
UFC 329 Pick: Riley
Tracy Cortez (12-3-0) v. Cong Wang (9-1-0)
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-3 (1 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Wrestling-heavy fighter with strong control and solid cardio
- Most effective when forcing opponents to defend takedowns and grinding out rounds
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 9-1 (2 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Explosive striker with excellent speed, power, and movement
- Strong takedown defense allows her to keep fights in her preferred range
DFS Perspective:
Wang's takedown defense and electric striking should be the difference in this fight. Cortez needs to consistently get the fight to the mat to have success, but Wang has the tools to keep it standing and make her pay on the feet. If the takedown defense holds up, I expect Wang to control the striking exchanges and pull away as the fight progresses. Wang profiles as the preferred side with solid DFS upside.
UFC 329 Pick: Wang
Damian Pinas (9-1-0) v. Cesar Almeida (7-2-0)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9-1 (8 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Explosive striker with dangerous power and strong finishing instincts
- Most effective when he can pressure forward and force exchanges early
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7-2 (5 KO/TKO)
- High-level kickboxer with sharp counters and legitimate knockout power
- Extremely dangerous in prolonged striking exchanges
DFS Perspective:
This should be a violent striking battle with major finishing upside on both sides. Pinas is younger, explosive, and carries serious power, but Almeida is the more polished and experienced striker. If this fight stays standing as expected, either man can end it with one clean shot. Slight lean Pinas due to his athleticism and power, but this is a fight worth targeting heavily for DFS.
UFC 329 Pick: Pinas
Farid Basharat (15-0-0) v. John Garza (6-1-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15-0 (1 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Undefeated and well-rounded with excellent grappling and fight IQ
- Excels at controlling opponents and consistently making the right adjustments
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: N/A – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 6-1 (3 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Athletic prospect with dangerous power and finishing ability
- Still largely untested against high-level competition
DFS Perspective:
This is a massive jump in competition for Garza. Basharat is far more experienced and should have clear advantages in grappling, control, and overall fight IQ. Garza has enough power to be dangerous early, but I expect Basharat to take over once he starts mixing in takedowns. Basharat profiles as one of the safer plays on the slate with strong control-based upside.
UFC 329 Pick: Basharat
Ryan Gandra (9-1-0) v. Zach Reese (10-3-0)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9-1 (5 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Explosive striker with dangerous power and strong finishing instincts
- Coming off a first-round finish, but remains largely untested against experienced competition
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 10-3 (5 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Dangerous finisher with power on the feet and a slick submission game
- More experienced against UFC-level competition and capable of ending the fight anywhere
DFS Perspective:
I need to see more from Gandra before taking him against more experienced fighters. It feels like he is being valued much higher due to his first-round finish last time out, but Reese is a different animal. Gandra is dangerous, but I expect Reese to have his chances throughout this fight and eventually pull off the upset. Reese profiles as another solid value play on a card where I do not like many of the cheaper options.
UFC 329 Pick: Reese
Cody Durden (18-10-1) v. Alessandro Costa (16-5-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 18-10-1 (6 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Wrestling-heavy fighter with strong takedowns and control
- Most effective when he can dictate the fight on the mat, but has struggled against dangerous grapplers
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16-5 (7 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Well-rounded flyweight with dangerous power and strong grappling
- Capable of creating finishing opportunities on the feet and on the mat
DFS Perspective:
This feels like a difficult matchup for Durden. His best path is through wrestling and control, but Costa is dangerous enough on the mat to make those exchanges risky. Costa also has the edge in power on the feet and should have more ways to win this fight. I expect Durden to have some early success with his wrestling, but Costa profiles as the preferred side with solid finishing upside.
UFC 329 Pick: Costa
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING RULES
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING RULES
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
