UFC Abu Dhabi DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
Discover the top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC Abu Dhabi on Saturday. Build winning lineups with our predictions, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Light Heavyweight
Magomed Ankalaev (21-2-1, 1NC) v. Bogdan Guskov (18-3-1)
DK Salaries: Ankalaev ($9,500), Guskov ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Ankalaev (-550), Guskov (+420)
This was originally scheduled to be Ankalaev v. Khalil Rountree as recently as a little over a week ago. Rountree withdrew, and the fight was offered to Jan Blachowicz, who was due to fight Guskov next week. Jan stated he couldn't make the weight on such short notice, and Guskov was granted the opportunity. Got all that?
When we last saw Ankalaev in October, he was getting knocked out by Alex Pereira and losing his 205-pound belt in the process. It was a truly dreadful performance, particularly when you take into account he had dominated Pereira just a handful of months earlier. It was the first knockout loss of his career. Ankalaev turned 34 in early-June, which isn't ideal, but it's not like the UFC's light heavyweight division is brimming with high-end athletes at the very top. Magomed should be just fine for the foreseeable future.
Guskov last appeared in December when he fought Blachowicz to a majority draw. It was a competitive, back-and-forth fight, and the rematch would have made plenty of sense. Bogdan has been on a nice run of late, going 4-0-1 in his past five fights with all four of the wins coming via stoppage (three knockouts, one submission). He hasn't lost since September 2023, which was his UFC debut and a late-notice fight against a tenured veteran in Volkan Oezdemir.
I think we have to consider Ankalaev's performance against Pereira his last time out to simply be an off night until proven otherwise.
He absorbed a grand total of 76 significant strikes over 25 minutes in the first fight between the two. In the second, he ate 28 significant strikes in 80 seconds.
This is a guy that has traditionally displayed elite stand-up defense, which is remarkable because he very rarely grapples. Even with the disaster against Pereira, he still only absorbs 2.59 significant strikes per minute on average.
Guskov is going to be more than willing to engage Ankalaev in the striking battle he is seeking. He hasn't landed a single takedown in six UFC fights.
Bogdan is more aggressive than Magomed, but far less technical. He'll eat a strike in order to land two of his own. It worked pretty well against the aging Blachowicz, but I have a difficult time believing it will be an effective strategy against an opponent as crafty as Ankalaev.
I actually have time for Guskov and think he's a solid depth fighter in a division with virtually no depth, but this is a massive ask.
I just don't think his style of fighting will work well here against an opponent who, outside of the Pereira fight, has displayed elite striking defense his entire UFC run. I'm more willing to lean on what we saw his first 15 fights with the company that his lone off night.
THE PICK: Ankalaev
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Co-Main Event - Flyweight
Steve Erceg (14-4-0) v. Ramazan Temirov (19-3-0)
DK Salaries: Erceg ($8,200), Temirov ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Erceg (-108), Temirov (-112)
Erceg has had quite a run considering he's been with the UFC just a little over three years. He won his first three fights with the company before getting rushed into a title fight with Alexandre Pantoja in May 2024. He looked great that evening and was primed to become champion before making one dumb move which led to a reversal and a unanimous decision defeat. He followed that up with back-to-back losses to Kai Kara-France and Brandon Moreno.
Erceg has won his last two fights via unanimous decision against Tim Elliott and Ode Osbourne (at bantamweight), but he looked quite lousy in both of those bouts, and there's an easy argument to be made he hasn't had a truly positive showing since the Pantoja fight.
Temirov joined the UFC in October 2024 after a brief two-fight stop in Rizin. He's been inactive since arriving on the scene, with a knockout of CJ Vergara and a unanimous decision win over Charles Johnson in his only two fights with the company. Temirov hasn't fought since March of last year. He was scheduled to face Asu Almabayev last July before withdrawing. Little did we know at the time, but the cancelled bout was the result of Temirov failing a drug test. He was suspended for a year and officially cleared to return on July 5.
We've seen enough from Erceg now to get a real feel for his game.
He's remarkably well-rounded with no real weaknesses. He rarely makes mistakes (outside of the Pantoja fight) and typically has an excellent feel for what he needs to do to win a fight. He will outwork his opposition just enough or land a takedown in a key spot to secure a round. In that sense, he reminds me a lot of Farid Basharat who fought on the McGregor card a couple weeks ago.
Temirov has massive power for a flyweight, especially when you take into account he's only 5-foot-4.
11 of his 19 career victories have come via knockout. That said, I wasn't overly impressed with what I saw in his win over Johnson. He started quickly before fading in a major way late. That's not the way to go about things against Erceg, who has traditionally had strong cardio.
Then there's the size difference between the two.
At 5-foot-8, Erceg is one of the biggest flyweights on the roster. He has four inches in height and five inches in reach on Temirov.
I think there's some real recency bias in the numbers here. Maybe Erceg doesn't quite have that elite ceiling many envisioned for him upon his company arrival, but I don't see how he and Temirov should be a pick 'em. I'm willing to take the known commodity here at what I perceive as a discounted price.
THE PICK: Erceg
Heavyweight
Valter Walker (15-1-0) v. Thomas Petersen (11-4-0)
DK Salaries: Walker ($8,800), Petersen ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Walker (-170), Petersen (+140)
Walker joined the UFC in April 2024 and immediately dropped a unanimous decision to Lukasz Brzeski, a bad look on multiple fronts. He has rebounded with four straight wins since. Not only have all four come via submission, but they've all come via heel hook, which is traditionally one of the most difficult moves to pull of. Now, let's not get ahead of ourselves. The wins have come against Junior Tafa, Don'Tale Mayes, Kennedy Nzechukwu and Louie Sutherland. Plus, it seems as if Walker has made a gimmick of this and is now looking for nothing but heel hooks every single time he enters the Octagon. It's been impressive, but there's definitely a world in which this all falls apart in an instant.
I have some time for Petersen, although the results haven't really been there thus far. He earned a submission win on Dana White's Contender Series back in August 2023 to earn his shot with the UFC. He's been wildly inconsistent since, alternating wins and losses in his first six fights with the company. The three wins have come via decision, and two of the defeats have come via knockout. Petersen is a serviceable fighter in a division that needs all the depth it can find, but I doubt there's another level here we have yet to see.
Walker's numbers are irrelevant because all four of his submission wins have come in Round 1, three in 1:24 or less.
I don't trust his striking in the least and could easily see him getting overwhelmed on the feet by most any opponent, but at 6-foot-6 with a 78-inch reach, Walker is amongst the largest fighters on the entire roster.
He's averaging 5.74 takedowns per 15 minutes. Ignore that number. A better way to look at it is in his victories, he got each of his opponents down once before submitting them.
That said, Petersen's greatest asset is his wrestling. He averages just over three (3.01) takedowns per 15 minutes and is defending the takedown at a terrific 87 percent clip.
The bottom line is that I refuse to back Walker as a favorite against anyone halfway decent.
He has one move. What if that one move doesn't work? Petersen is a quality grappler and also has better cardio than Valter. If Walker is able to find a heel hook for a FIFTH fight in a row, so be it. I'll take the "L".
THE PICK: Petersen
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Welterweight
Santiago Ponzinibbio (31-9-0) v. Sam Patterson (14-3-1)
DK Salaries: Ponzinibbio ($6,800), Patterson ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Ponzinibbio (+320), Patterson (-410)
Ponzinibbio will be 40 years old in late September and appears to be just about out of time. He's 2-5 in his past seven fights dating back to December 2021. Three of those five defeats came via split decision and none were easy fights (Daniel Rodriguez, Muslim Salikhov, Kevin Holland, Michel Pereira, Geoff Neal). The most positive thing I can say about Ponzinibbio these days is that it typically still takes a lot to get him out of there.
Patterson won four straight against middling competition from January 2024 to September 2025. He was elevated into a high-profile fight against Michael Page in March and started strong before fading, eventually dropping a unanimous decision. Patterson's ceiling is likely that of a fringe top-15 guy. Someone that wins more than they lose but consistently struggle to get that one "notable" victory.
Ponzinibbio was a dynamic offensive fighter in his heyday, but age, injuries, and inactivity have taken their toll. He fought just once in both 2023 and 2024 and didn't compete at all from November 2018 to January 2021. Ponzinibbio's potential best days were spent outside of competition.
The one thing I will say is that Ponzinibbio is still willing to get in there and mix things up. He'll stand in the pocket and trade with his opposition without a care in the world. The issue is that in order to generate any meaningful offense, he is going to get hit. A ton. He's been knocked out in two of his last three defeats, but both came in Round 3. I don't see Patterson getting an early stoppage here.
Each of Sam's first five UFC fights ended in Round 1, so he never really got a chance to generate any sort of volume on the feet. In the Page bout, which did go the distance, Patterson landed just 12-of-64 significant strikes. Now MVP is one of the most unique fighters in the division, so I'm not surprised Patterson struggled. I'm very interested to see how much offense he will generate here against a guy in Ponzinibbio that is there to be hit.
The numbers here are way off. I completely get wanting to fade Ponz given his age what he's shown lately. I also understand Patterson is far better than a fringe-roster opponent. I'm still not seeing $2,600 difference in salary. At all.
It's not enough to swing me to the Ponzinibbio side because I don't think he's going to win, but I'm not rushing to back Sam, either. This is a pass for me entirely.
THE PICK: Patterson
Other Bouts
Welterweight
Islam Dulatov (12-1-0) v. Wellington Turman (18-8-0)
DK Salaries: Dulatov ($9,800), Turman ($6,400)
Vegas Odds: Dulatov (-900), Turman (+600)
THE PICK: Dulatov
Lightweight
Magomed Zaynukov (8-0-0) v. Damian Rzepecki (10-0-0)
DK Salaries: Zaynukov ($9,200), Rzepecki ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Zaynukov (-325), Rzepecki (+260)
THE PICK: Zaynukov
Heavyweight
Rizvan Kuniev (13-3-1, 1NC) v. Tyrell Fortune (18-3-0, 2NC)
DK Salaries: Kuniev ($9,000), Fortune ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Kuniev (-305), Fortune (+245)
THE PICK: Fortune
Welterweight
Abubakar Vagaev (24-4-0) v. Saygid Izagakhmaev (22-3-0)
DK Salaries: Vagaev ($8,900), Izagakhmaev ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Vagaev (-205), Izagakhmaev (+170)
THE PICK: Vagaev
Light Heavyweight
Dustin Jacoby (22-9-1) v. Muhammad Said (9-0-0)
DK Salaries: Jacoby ($8,700), Said ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Jacoby (-165), Said (+140)
THE PICK: Jacoby
Lightweight
Ismael Bonfim (20-6-0) v. Axel Sola (11-1-1)
DK Salaries: Bonfim ($7,600), Sola ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Bonfim (+155), Sola (-185)
THE PICK: Sola
Light Heavyweight
Magomed Tuchalov (6-0-0) v. Brendson Ribeiro (17-10-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Tuchalov ($9,700), Ribeiro ($6,500)
Vegas Odds: Tuchalov (-800), Ribeiro (+550)
THE PICK: Tuchalov
Lightweight
Nurullo Aliev (11-0-0) v. Mike Davis (12-3-0)
DK Salaries: Aliev ($8,500), Davis ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Aliev (-220), Davis (+180)
THE PICK: Davis
Bantamweight
Cody Gibson (22-12-0) v. Abdul Hussein (15-2-0)
DK Salaries: Gibson ($6,900), Hussein ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Gibson (+350), Hussein (-455)
THE PICK: Hussein
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
