Corbin Carroll

A star is born. Carroll flashed tremendous potential as a late-season call-up in 2022 and then did nothing in 2023 to dissuade the notion that he is one of the brightest young players in the sport. He tallied 65 extra-base hits in 155 regular-season games, stole 54 bases in 59 attempts, and placed seventh among all major leaguers in runs scored (116) to help the Diamondbacks claim the final NL Wild Card spot and stage a run all the way to the World Series. The one legitimate knock against him is that he has a weak outfield arm, but fantasy managers have the luxury of simply ignoring that fact. At age 23 and absolutely dripping with category-spanning fantasy upside, Carroll is sure to be a first-round selection in every mixed-league draft this spring. He could even regularly come off the board within the first five picks. That eight-year, $111 million contract extension he signed with Arizona last March already looks incredibly team-friendly and gives the D-backs some leeway to build an even better supporting cast around him.

Carroll was part of the new trend in 2022 of the game's best prospects in the upper levels debuting for the final month, rather than early the following season. He laid waste to every minor-league stop along the way, showcasing an extremely fantasy-friendly skillset. Carroll has played in some hitter-friendly environments, but his .240 ISO in the majors was his worst such mark since rookie ball in 2019. He may never hit 40 home runs, but power will be a strength (39.0 Hard% in the minors). His 100th percentile sprint speed will also be a strength - he stole 33 bases on 39 attempts last year. Carroll had a .777 OPS against lefties and a 1.062 OPS against righties in the minors in 2022, but considering he is already the Diamondbacks' best position player and a strong defender, it would be surprising if he fell into a strict platoon. His most common lineup spots were sixth, seventh and eighth, but he could assume a spot in the top third sometime this season. The trade of Daulton Varsho to Toronto also opens up center field in Arizona, with Lourdes Gurriel set to play left. Carroll had a plus-four DRS in just 32 games last year, and that strong level of defense in center field should afford him a longer leash if he struggles early in 2023.

Carroll entered the season as the No. 16 overall prospect for dynasty, and if he hadn't suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in May, he may have finished the year as a top-five prospect. He had a 53.3 Hard%, 20.7 BB%, .478 ISO and three steals in 29 plate appearances at High-A, so he couldn't have played much better before getting hurt. Carroll has a potentially special set of fantasy-relevant tools, including 70-grade speed, burgeoning power and a hit tool and approach that offer a level of safety with regards to projecting his performance as he moves up the ladder. Any hitter returning from a significant shoulder surgery carries at least some risk, and we don't know how long it will take Carroll to return to form. However, he is the type of prospect who could cement himself as a blue-chip building block in dynasty in short order. Look for Arizona's center fielder of the future to spend the bulk of his age-21 season at Double-A.

Height and weight are less predictive for future power than bat speed and swing plane, and Carroll has the latter aspects figured out, which allows him to project for 20-plus homer power despite being listed at 5-foot-10, 165 pounds. Traditional scouts love Carroll, the 16th overall pick in 2019, for his leadoff-hitting center fielder skill set and strong makeup. He is appealing in fantasy because he is a plus-plus runner who should be an everyday player who hits for average and power. In a normal year, Carroll would have spent his age-19 season at Low-A and High-A. Instead, he got to face a majority of pitchers at the alternate site who either have significant experience in the upper levels of the minors and/or experience in the majors. Carroll's ceiling is an Andrew McCutchen type of statistical profile, and even if the bat doesn't quite get to that level, he should still be a five-category contributor.

The Diamondbacks appear to have struck gold with Carroll, the No. 16 overall pick in the 2019 draft. From a tools perspective, he was worthy of a top-10 pick, but his size (5-foot-10, 165 pounds) scared some teams off. His plus-plus speed is his top tool (18-for-19 on stolen base attempts in 42 games), but he could also be a plus hitter and plus center fielder. His strong hands and wrists generate excellent bat speed and he is adept at using compact torque to produce surprising pop. His 22.0 K% and 15.6 BB% were strong marks for an 18-year-old, and after some early adjustments, he started lifting the ball more in his pro debut. Leadoff-hitting everyday center fielder seems like a median outcome, but there is a chance he gets to enough power to hit second or third. This is a deep draft class for impactful position players, but Carroll clearly belongs in the top-10 for fantasy purposes.