UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC 329 - McGregor vs. Holloway 2
The UFC is back in Vegas for a numbered fight card with a host of intriguing matchups, including a rematch 13 years in the making between Conor McGregor and Max Holloway. We'll break down each fight across three platforms. Picks this week include a veteran looking to spoil the party for an up-and-coming prospect, and a lightweight standout who needs a victory to stay in the title picture. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Farid Basharat ($9,600)
The UFC did their best to find an Ethyn Ewing replacement in every sense of the word, as late-notice debutante John Garza is a slick boxer with power who is not afraid to work the body. Unfortunately, this is where the commonalities with Ewing end, as "Mowgli" has had trouble stopping takedowns on the regional scene and doesn't have much fluidity in his movement. This should allow Basharat to pressure his opponent effectively and control the fight with his wrestling.
Alessandro Costa ($9,100)
Costa's tendency to hang back and look for counter shots could provide an opportunity for Cody Durden to force clinch situations, but the Brazilian will be the much stronger party here, leaving the only real path for "Custom Made" to exhaust his opponent and take over late. It seems much more likely that the more agile and powerful grappler will be one step ahead, using athleticism and hard strikes from range to control the fight.
Tracy Cortez ($8,000)
Cortez has worked hard to become more than just a wrestler, incorporating feints into her game that she uses to fire crisp boxing combinations. This well-roundedness should be a problem for Cong Wang, who is a dangerous striker, but can be controlled and brought to the ground, as evidenced by the 8:06 of control time she yielded to Eduarda Moura. Wang has the kickboxing skills to look good against the right opponent, but this will be a step up in competition that I don't think she is ready for.
Cory Sandhagen ($8,300)
I still vividly remember picking Mario Bautista over Sandhagen in my early days as a RotoWire analyst, reasoning that Bautista would be able to fluster his lanky opponent with pressure, while being a good enough scrambler to survive in exchanges. It was clear from the outset, however, that Bautista struggled with the height disadvantage and was a step behind when the two hit the ground. This dynamic has me leaning toward "Sandman" in the rematch, as wrestling is an integral part of a successful Bautista performance, and I expect him to have trouble closing the distance once again.
Kai Kamaka ($6,900)
Luke Riley is an explosive boxer with undeniable fight-ending power, but he has shown enough holes in his game that I can't endorse him as such a big favorite against a UFC veteran. The most glaring of these is his takedown defense rate, which stands at an anemic 37 percent after being grounded four times in his first two UFC fights. This is something I expect Kamaka, who was a state wrestling champion in Hawaii, to exploit. He will also use his kicks and make sure that Riley can't just have a boxing match. It's possible that the superior athleticism of Riley is enough to win the day, but this is a test I need to see the 27-year-old pass.
Gable Steveson ($9,900)
There is no really comfortable way to play Steveson this week, as he tips the scales with a (-2500) betting line for his UFC debut. The wrestling standout showed in other organizations that he is incredibly quick and powerful, with hints that his striking is much further along than some might expect. Elisha Ellison is an agile heavyweight with serviceable boxing, but it would hardly be surprising to see him overwhelmed as he was in his debut against Brando Pericic.
Robert Whittaker ($8,700)
With this matchup against Nikita Krylov, Whittaker is in a position to take what would undoubtedly be the worst loss of his career. Fortunately for "The Reaper," his footwork and striking technique are light years ahead of someone like Krylov, who didn't look good in long stretches of his fight with Modestas Bukauskas. Whittaker is moving up to light heavyweight for this one, which means he will need to contend with disadvantages in height and reach, but the former middleweight champion should have enough skill to get his hand raised.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider on PrizePicks
Brandon Royval UNDER 57.5 Significant Strikes, Terrance McKinney UNDER 24.5 Significant Strikes, and Adrian Yanez OVER 40.5 Significant Strikes
Royval can pile up the strikes when he gets his game going, but he will be at such a disadvantage in power and speed that the perennial title contender won't want to stay in the pocket for long. This will likely result in a knockout before the number is reached, or Royval forcing clinch situations so he can work his grappling.
When Terrance McKinney sprints across the cage to unleash a torrent of offense on Saturday, he will meet King Green, welcoming him with his hands down. This should result in even more landed power strikes than usual in a short span, as neither one of these men has ever backed away from a firefight.
Yanez tends to take his time before finding the kill shot, probing with his jab from range to set up combinations. Cody Garbrandt has prioritized keeping himself safe over providing meaningful offense of late, which should help us get over our total here.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool
UFC Bets to Consider
Ryan Gandra Wins via KO/TKO (+106)
Gandra swings so big and with such abandon that I don't expect him to survive for long at this level without major improvements. This regional style should serve him well for at least one more fight, however, as Zachary Reese has always stood up tall in the pocket with his chin in the air. Things may get interesting if Reese can get to his grappling, but I can't trust him to survive the initial onslaught.
Cesar Almeida Wins via KO/TKO (+400)
As a UFC veteran with almost 60 kickboxing fights to his name, I was a bit surprised to see Almeida as a significant underdog against 24-year-old Damian Pinas. There is no doubt that Pinas can throw long, powerful shots, but he is used to quickly disposing of his opponents, having been outside the first round just once in 10 professional MMA fights. We saw Almeida keep his cool and find the finishing counter shot when he was in trouble against Abdul Razak Alhassan, and I think his experience and presence will go a long way here.
Paddy Pimblett Wins via Submission (+650)
Benoit Saint-Denis can make any pick against him look foolish when he employs his suffocating style, but I could only watch him dive headlong into the guillotine of Dan Hooker so many times before wondering if his latch-ditch escape attempts would work against a much more accomplished grappler. We saw "The Baddy" control Justin Gaethje with his jab for large stretches of their fight, and I'm going to take a shot that a frustrated French fighter will be stuck at range and try to force a takedown at the wrong time.
Max Holloway Wins via KO/TKO (-120)
To say there is only one way to call this fight may be overstating the case, but we need to be realistic about the current state of Conor McGregor: a man who was getting overwhelmed by the pressure of Dustin Poirier before breaking his leg five years ago. Max Holloway has been active in the organization during Conor's absence, backing his opponents up against the fence before unloading with combinations. While it's not impossible that a rejuvenated McGregor catches Max early with those extra welterweight pounds, Conor hasn't felt the speed of a fight since the early days of Joe Biden's presidency, and it's hard to believe he'll be able to find his groove against such a skilled and imposing fighter as "Blessed."
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for 329. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
Looking for a new sportsbook? Get in on the action with our best sportsbook promo codes, as well as a list of best sports betting sites and sports betting apps.
