UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC Oklahoma City - Du Plessis vs. Usman
The UFC heads to Oklahoma City for a card full of intriguing matchups we can analyze for potential profit. We'll take a look at each bout across three platforms, with picks including a scrappy brawler looking for his first UFC win, and a former champion intent on proving he still belongs among the elite. Our betting lines this week come courtesy of the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
UFC Predictions to Consider on DraftKings
Kamaru Usman ($7,200)
The lack of respect shown to the former welterweight king ahead of his matchup against Dricus Du Plessis has been odd. It certainly is the case that Usman will be at a disadvantage in speed and physicality in his move up to middleweight, but we saw him use his wrestling to neutralize an incredibly explosive fighter in Joaquin Buckley, and he was able to survive the initial onslaught of Khamzat Chimaev and unquestionably win the third round of that fight. Du Plessis's own bout with Chimaev wasn't the first time he'd shown a weakness against a strong wrestler, and Usman remains one of the best defensive fighters in the sport.
Austin Bashi ($7,900)
Bashi was far too reliant on wrestling in his debut loss to Christian Rodriguez, but we got a glimpse of a different style in his quick submission win over John Yannis, as the 24-year-old came out light on his feet to throw body kicks from range. Jose Delgado is fast and powerful but has notched a takedown defense rate of just 50 percent in five UFC fights, despite not having shared the cage with a committed wrestler. I expect Bashi to continue his improvement on the feet, which should help him get to his takedowns more effectively.
Damien Anderson ($8,500)
Anderson versus Ezra Elliott is an intriguing bout between two BJJ specialists in their MMA infancy. While they are evenly matched in several areas, I'm giving the slight edge to Anderson, who I view as the more fluid striker. I also have questions about Elliott's strength of schedule, as he has been a (-1000) favorite or greater in his last three professional fights, while "Demon Hands" has been fighting opponents in CFFC, which features a tougher class of fighter overall.
Dione Barbosa ($9,400)
The price here is a bit prohibitive outside of cash games, but Barbosa should be able to use her reactive wrestling against newcomer Anna Melisano, a fighter who stands upright while charging into the pocket, leaving her hips exposed. Melisano is also active off her back, so I expect her to give up positions and control time while trying to play jujitsu. "Bandana" is aggressive with an all-around skill set that could make her one to watch going forward, but the majority of Melisano's professional career has been spent facing fighters with three wins or fewer, which makes this feel like too much too soon.
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani ($7,400)
I was a bit surprised to see Lebosnoyani as a significant underdog here, as I see the fight against Seok Hyeon Ko as much closer to even. While both can be suffocating grapplers, "Mufassa" is a much more prolific submission grappler, which should make this fight interesting when it gets to the ground. Lebosnoyani will also have the speed and technique advantage, as Ko wants to do little more than throw a few big shots before forcing a tie-up.
Fatima Kline ($9,300)
Kline and Tabatha Ricci are both committed wrestlers, but Kline is bigger, more aggressive, and hits harder. We saw Ricci relegated to the back foot for the entirety of her fight against Virna Jandiroba, and I expect a more physical opponent to make life even worse for "Baby Shark."
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider on PrizePicks - Significant Strikes
Alden Coria UNDER 47.5 Significant Strikes, Tommy McMillen OVER 53.5 Significant Strikes, and Felipe Franco OVER 18.5 Significant Strikes
Stewart Nicoll fights far too recklessly to have much success against a fighter like Coria, who is explosive, hits hard, and is a capable wrestler. I expect this fight to end in an early stoppage, or for Coria to control Nicoll on the ground for large portions of it. Either outcome would likely prevent "Cobra" from reaching this total.
McMillien gets shot out of a cannon trying to finish fights, but I expect Alberto Montes to slow this fight down by looking for grappling sequences and heavy counters off the back foot. This should force McMillian to reconsider his entries, leading to a fight where both men take turns striking from range.
Felipe Franco and Levi Rodrigues are two incredibly powerful athletes, but as we saw in Franco's UFC debut against Mario Pinto, this dynamic can lead to hesitancy, as neither man wants to taste the power of his opponent. Look for a slow-paced striking battle here, which should end with Franco edging over this total.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool
UFC Bets to Consider
Mitch Ramirez Wins via KO/TKO (+550)
Ramirez can get reckless in the pocket, but as an aggressive fighter who will pressure relentlessly, he is the perfect upset candidate for Chase Hooper, who is likely looking to take a breath after losing by KO/TKO in each of his last two fights. We saw how well Ramirez's submission defense held up against Mike Davis, and Hooper isn't athletic or fast enough to punish Ramirez for swinging wildly on the feet. Hooper may drag this fight to the ground and control Ramirez for the better part of three rounds, but it's difficult to initiate takedowns off of the back foot, and I expect Hooper to get flustered when faced with the prospect of a third consecutive knockout loss.
Christian Leroy Duncan Wins via KO/TKO (+180)
Jared Cannonier has been knocked out just three times in 27 fights, but the 42-year-old looks as flatfooted as ever in the cage, and Duncan has the combination of agility and power that is uncommon even among middleweights. Cannonier will have no choice but to stand in the pocket and try to work his boxing, which should open the door to the finishing sequence.
Alvin Hines Wins via KO/TKO (+200)
I wasn't very high on Hines ahead of his debut, but he was able to show some basic ideas of striking: pumping jabs, and trying to set up big shots, even as he was being battered by Jhonata Diniz. This led to Hines nearly taking over the fight in the third round as his opponent began to tire. Conversely, RJ Harris is a big mess of a heavyweight who will throw big shots, but ultimately wants to initiate grappling sequences. I think Hines is a good enough wrestler to stay out of the clinch and light up Harris from range until the finish materializes.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Oklahoma City. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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