UFC 329 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
Discover the top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway on Saturday. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $1 MILLON UFC 329 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Welterweight
Conor McGregor (22-6-0) v. Max Holloway (27-9-0)
DK Salaries: McGregor ($7,200), Holloway ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: McGregor (+185), Holloway (-225)
This is a rematch of an August 2023 bout which McGregor won via unanimous decision. I can't put into words how little that result means for this fight.
Obviously, the big story here is the return of McGregor. Conor will be 38 years old three days after this event takes place. He hasn't fought since July 2021 and is 1-3 in his past four fights, with all three of the defeats coming via stoppage. He has just a single win dating back to November 2016. There were rumors of multiple fights with Michael Chandler in recent years, but nothing ever came of it. It's certainly fair to wonder what McGregor's motivation for returning here is. Conor's gimmick only works if he's winning fights, and he's won all of one fight in about a decade.
Holloway has also fallen on hard times of late, dropping two of his last three fights. He's been bouncing back and forth between featherweight -- where he's had his most success -- and lightweight, where it hasn't gone as well. Max keeps himself in great shape, and you know he's going to show up ready to fight. If nothing else, you can certainly trust his preparation far more than McGregor's. It's nice that he's getting what is assuredly a massive payday here considering everything he's done for the company over the years.
The most important thing to note regarding this fight is the fact it will take place at 170 pounds.
McGregor has fought twice at welterweight in the past, getting submitted by Nate Diaz and knocking out Donald Cerrone. Holloway has never competed at 170 pounds. I'm 1000 percent sure Max could still make lightweight or even featherweight without issue, so it's only fair to assume this fight taking place at welterweight was a requirement in order to get McGregor to sign off.
I think there's a real chance this turns into a glorified sparring match.
Neither man offers much in terms of grappling, and both will want to put on a show in the main event of International Fight Week. The power likely goes in McGregor's favor, but it's hard to say for sure considering how long he's been away.
Max should have a clear edge in volume, and the volume should hold up just fine in a higher weight class, although he's giving up a whopping five inches in reach despite being two inches taller than McGregor.
I have shockingly little feel for this fight despite the fact the two men have combined for 45-plus UFC bouts.
Ultimately, I just don't trust Conor's preparation, nor his motivation for fighting.
Holloway's DK salary seems quite fair on the surface, but something is bugging me about this entire thing. It's not enough to flip my pick, but the way this fight came about, plus the fact it's happening at welterweight, is giving me more pause than it probably should.
THE PICK: Holloway
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Co-Main Event - Lightweight
Benoit Saint-Denis (17-3-0, 1NC) v. Paddy Pimblett (23-4-0)
DK Salaries: Saint-Denis ($8,500), Pimblett ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Saint-Denis (-135), Pimblett (+115)
Things were looking bleak for Saint-Denis after suffering back-to-back knockout defeats to Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano back in 2024, but he's since responded with four straight stoppage wins. His second-round submission victory over Mauricio Ruffy last September in Paris was particularly impressive. BSD won't be 31 years of age until December, so he should theoretically be closing in on a title shot if he is able to get past Pimblett, especially if he is able to do so impressively.
Paddy suffered his first UFC defeat his last time out, dropping a unanimous decision to Justin Gaethje in a competitive, back-and-forth affair for the interim UFC Lightweight Championship in January. The setback, which was disappointing at the time, looks a heck of a lot better since Gaethje was able to dethrone Ilia Topuria at the White House a few weeks back. Paddy has enough juice to remain on the fringes of the title conversation, at a minimum, for the next little while.
Regular readers of this column know I'm not the biggest Paddy supporter. In fact, I don't think I've ever picked him to win a fight. This looks like another terrible matchup for him for a variety of reasons.
Saint-Denis' greatest asset is his gas tank. He has the ability to not only push a unique pace that few fighters can match, but also to dish out a ton of punishment while doing so.
He's averaging a whopping 4.19 takedowns per 15 minutes. Pimblett defends the takedown at just a 44 percent clip. He gave up three to Gaethje his last time out and four to Michael Chandler the time before that. I'm supremely confident BSD will be able to get his wrestling game going, particularly early on.
Paddy's striking has improved to the point he was able to outland Gaethje over the course of five rounds, but the most damaging blows most certainly came from Justin. His cardio held up well there over 25 minutes, so I have no reason to think it won't hold up here over the course of three rounds, but he certainly isn't going to be able to match Saint-Denis in that area.
The only time we saw Saint-Denis tire was against Poirier. He was reportedly ill entering that fight and still dominated for a round before his body simply gave out. I don't expect any such issues here.
Perhaps Paddy can find an opening on the mat and clamp on one of his trademark submissions, but Saint-Denis is likely too tricky to provide such an opening.
Pimblett is better than I originally gave him credit for and I have enough respect for his improvements to believe he can keep this fairly close, but I think he's either going to get drowned by pace, grappling, or both.
THE PICK: Saint-Denis
Bantamweight
Cory Sandhagen (18-6-0) v. Mario Bautista (17-3-0)
DK Salaries: Sandhagen ($8,300), Bautista ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Sandhagen (-150), Bautista (+125)
This is a rematch of a January 2019 bout which Sandhagen won via submission in just over three minutes. It was Bautista's company debut.
Now 34 years old, Sandhagen has had problems winning the "big" fight over the course of his UFC run but he remains a no-doubt top-five bantamweight. His five setbacks with the company have come against four former champions -- Merab Dvalishvili, Petr Yan, T.J. Dillashaw, Aljamain Sterling -- and a guy in Umar Nurmagomedov who has fought for the belt once before and probably will again. He only loses to the best of the best.
Bautista is 9-1 in his past ten fights dating back to February 2022. Four of those wins have come via submission, with the lone setback being a lopsided unanimous decision to Nurmagomedov. The lone knock on Bautista, and one which isn't even his fault entirely, is the fact he's fought nowhere near the same level of competition as Sandhagen.
Sandhagen is a tough guy to get a read on much of the time.
He has traditionally had a very difficult time against high-level wrestlers such as Dvalishvili and Nurmagomedov. That said, he's shown off his offensive wrestling against opponents that struggle to defend takedowns.
Bautista is in a similar spot, which leads me to believe this fight will primarily be contested on the feet.
For what it's worth, which is probably nothing, both men landed a takedown in the brief first fight between the two, while Sandhagen also scored a knockdown.
The stand-up numbers between the two are eerily similar.
Bautista lands at a slightly higher rate, while Sandhagen is slightly better defensively.
Cory will enter with a two-inch edge in height and one-inch edge in reach.
Everything we've seen from this two recently suggests this fight is going to be close and competitive.
On a card in which I like very few underdogs outright, I'll take the $400 in savings and role with Bautista in a very slight upset, albeit with minimal confidence. I think the line should be closer to a pick 'em.
THE PICK: Bautista
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Flyweight
Brandon Royval (17-9-0) v. Lone'er Kavanagh (10-1-0)
DK Salaries: Royval ($7,400), Kavanagh ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Royval (+180), Kavanagh (-220)
This is almost certainly last call for the soon-to-be 34-year-old Royval. He's 2-3 in his past five fights and both of the wins have come via split decision. Granted, the setbacks were against the literal three-best flyweights on the roster in Joshua Van, Alexandre Pantoja, and Manel Kape, but you are what your record says you are in this sport. It also doesn't help matters that Royval -- who will be 34 next month -- is getting up there in age while competing in a division that is typically run by younger talent.
Kavanagh, at age 27, is a perfect example of that younger talent. He's sporting a 3-1 record in his first four fights with the company. The setback was a knockout to Charles Johnson which hasn't aged well by any means. Yet the reason Kavanagh is in this spot is because of what he did his last time out. He accepted a late-notice, main event fight against Brandon Moreno in the latter's native Mexico and proceeded to take a clear cut unanimous decision.
At 5-foot-9, Royval is a big, physical flyweight.
Durability is a minor concern but we've also seen him take plenty of beatings in the past without crumbling. Royval absorbed 204 significant strikes over the course of five rounds with Van and 112 in a split decision win over Moreno and 95 in his unanimous decision loss to Pantoja.
The main issue moving forward is that the way Royval fights it will be almost impossible for him to have success if his offensive output dips even a little bit.
Kavanagh has proven to be a competent all-around fighter.
He lands enough (4.13 significant strikes per minute) , is solid defensively (3.49 significant strikes absorbed per minute), can grapple in a pinch (1.12 takedowns per 15 minutes), and exhibits elite takedown defense (94 percent).
He also just turned 27 years old in early June.
The value is entirely on the Royval side and I'm a tad bit worried that he's only lost to the very best in the sport, but if Kavanagh is as good as some people think he is -- and he looked that good against Moreno in hostile territory -- this is a fight he should win. It will almost certainly be close.
THE PICK: Kavanagh
Lightweight
King Green (35-17-1, 1NC) v. Terrance McKinney (18-8-0)
DK Salaries: Green ($7,800), McKinney ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Green (+120), McKinney (-140)
Green, who will turn 40 years old in September, enters having won three in a row including back-to-back fights via stoppage. He knocked out Daniel Zellhuber in February in Mexico City before submitting Jeremy Stephens in May in Newark. This is a very quick turnaround, but Green absorbed no damage in the Stephens fight so it makes sense he wants to get back in the octagon as quickly as possible. I still think he's going to be nothing more than a .500 fighter moving forward but the fact the California native is making any sort of run at his advanced age is remarkable.
McKinney continues to be arguably the most exciting and least trustworthy fighter in the sport. 11 of his 13 UFC fights have ended in Round 1, including seven straight. The last time a McKinney fight lasted more than 2:30 was July 2023. As long as you go into this one expecting supreme entertainment and nothing else, you should walk away quite pleased.
If fights were only one round long, McKinney would be a legitimate title contender.
His power is massive and he's super aggressive, but his gas tank is dreadful and he tends to fall off a cliff very quickly. His win condition is via Round 1 stoppage, which makes all the success he's had with the company all the more remarkable.
This will be Green's 55th professional fight. He's been knocked out six times, most recently by Mauricio Ruffy in March 2025. Green is actually quite responsible defensively considering he always fights with his hands down, but he's willing to throw down and that's not what you want to do against Terrance.
I'm curious to see if Green will focus a bit more on his defense early on knowing how quick of a starter McKinney is. Ultimately, I doubt it.
Terrance cares more about putting on a show than winning fights, so his game plan isn't going to change. He's going to go for broke right off the hop and he's either going to put Green away or likely lose when his gas tank immediately evaporates.
The smart move is probably to save the $600 on Green and hope he survives the early going but I think McKinney has a real chance to finish him immediately given King's supreme confidence in his abilities.
I'm taking McKinney but on a 14-fight card, I would pass on this one all together.
THE PICK: McKinney
OTHER FIGHTS
Light Heavyweight
Nikita Krylov (31-11-0) v. Robert Whittaker (27-9-0)
DK Salaries: Krylov ($7,500), Whittaker ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Krylov (+120), Whittaker (-140)
THE PICK: Krylov
Heavyweight
Gable Steveson (3-0-0) v. Elisha Ellison (5-2-0)
DK Salaries: Steveson ($9,900), Ellison ($6,300)
Vegas Odds: Steveson (-2800), Ellison (+1300)
THE PICK: Steveson
Bantamweight
Cody Garbrandt (15-7-0) v. Adrian Yanez (17-6-1)
DK Salaries: Garbrandt ($6,800), Yanez ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Garbrandt (+320), Yanez (-410)
THE PICK: Yanez
Featherweight
Luke Riley (13-0-0) v. Kai Kamaka (18-7-1)
DK Salaries: Riley ($9,300), Kamaka ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Riley (-310), Kamaka (+250)
THE PICK: Riley
Women's Flyweight
Tracy Cortez (12-3-0) v. Cong Wang (9-1-0)
DK Salaries: Cortez ($8,000), Wang ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Cortez (-105), Wang (-115)
THE PICK: Wang
Middleweight
Damian Pinas (9-1-0) v. Cesar Almeida (7-2-0)
DK Salaries: Pinas ($8,900), Almeida ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Pinas (-220), Almeida (+180)
THE PICK: Pinas
Bantamweight
Farid Basharat (15-0-0) v. John Garza (6-1-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Basharat (-600), Garza (+400)
THE PICK: Basharat
Middleweight
Ryan Gandra (9-1-0) v. Zachary Reese (10-3-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Gandra ($8,600), Reese ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Gandra (-135), Reese (+115)
THE PICK: Reese
Flyweight
Alessandro Costa (16-5-0) v. Cody Durden (18-10-1)
DK Salaries: Costa ($9,100), Durden ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Costa (-250), Durden (+205)
THE PICK: Costa
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
