UFC 327 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
See the top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $500k UFC 327 Special with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Light Heavyweight Championship
Jiri Prochazka (32-5-1) v. Carlos Ulberg (14-1-0)
DK Salaries: Prochazka ($8,200), Ulberg ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Prochazka (-120), Ulberg (+100)
With Alex Pereira vacating the 205-pound title to fight for the interim heavyweight crown against Ciryl Gane on the White House card in June, Prochazka and Ulberg will compete for the undisputed crown here.
Jiri has been with the UFC for a shade under six years and this will be his fourth title fight. He's 1-2 in the prior three, defeating Glover Teixeira and losing to Pereira twice. Prochazka remains at the top of his game despite being 33 years old. On top of obviously being an excellent fighter, he's extremely entertaining and popular with the fan base, making him a no-brainer addition to a vacant title fight such as this one.
He may look like he's in his mid 20's, but Ulberg will somehow be 36 years old in mid-November. He has just 15 professional fights under his belt and his style rarely leads to him absorbing much damage, so Ulberg is probably in better shape moving forward than most fighters his age. He has followed up a knockout loss to Kennedy Nzechukwu in his company debut back in March 2021 with nine straight wins. That said, while Ulberg has defeated quality opponents such as Dominick Reyes and Jan Blachowicz, he's yet to truly be tested against the best the division has to offer.
For comparison's sake, Prochazka has been in there against Pereira (twice), Khail Rountree, Jamahal Hill, Teixeira, Aleksandar Rakic, etc. The gap is legitimate.
Both of these guys are essentially one-dimensional strikers, although they go about their business is extremely different ways.
Prochazka is all action, all violence. He hits extremely hard, he's comfortable crashing the pocket, and although he has four career defeats via knockout, I wouldn't say he has durability issues. It takes a ton to get Jiri out of there.
Ulberg has eight career wins via knockout including five with the UFC, but the power edge is in Prochazka's favor in a major way.
Carlos is the more technical striker. He throws a bunch of kicks and is very good from distance. As a former professional kickboxer, the cleaner this fight looks, the more it favors Ulberg.
If Jiri is somehow able to turn it into a wild brawl, he will almost certainly pull ahead. The thing is, Prochazka has a way of getting guys out of their comfort zone. There's no way he's going to stand there in a fight scheduled for 25 minutes and let Ulberg hang back and pick him apart from the outside. It's just not going to happen.
This feels like a trap line because it's essentially a pick 'em, but this is a Jiri pick all day long for me in this matchup. I think he has more pure power and I think he has the style to make things miserable for Ulberg over the course of five rounds, or as long as it lasts. I will admit that when a play seems this obvious to me, I feel like I'm missing something.
UFC 327 PICK: Prochazka
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Co-Main Event - Light Heavyweight
Azamat Murzakanov (16-0-0) v. Paulo Costa (15-4-0)
DK Salaries: Murzakanov ($8,900), Costa ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Murzakanov (-200), Costa (+165)
This fight was originally scheduled to open the main card before being bumped up to co-main event recently following the rescheduling of the Joshua Van v. Tatsuro Taira flyweight title fight.
This will be Costa's second appearance at light heavyweight in his past five fights. He lost a unanimous decision to Marvin Vettori at 205 pounds back in October 2021, dropped backed down to middleweight for four fights, went 2-2, and is now returning to light heavyweight. Costa is chiseled out of granite and the extra 20 pounds certainly makes the weight cut far easier at age 35 (in a couple weeks), although it would also seem to dimish his power, which is by far his greatest asset.
Murzakanov is one of the most fascinating fighters on the entire roster in my opinion. He'll be 37 years old the day after this event takes place. At 5-foot-10, he's about the smallest light heavyweight on the roster, but all the guy does is destroy his competition. He's 6-0 in the UFC with five knockout wins on his resume, in addition to a KO win on Dana White's Contender Series. Like Mariano Rivera's cutter, everyone knows what is coming and no one has been able to handle it yet.
Costa earned a reputation as a murderous power puncher early in his UFC run. His first four fights with the company resulted in knockout wins, but that was back in 2017 and 2018. Costa doesn't have a single knockout win since. While his body won't be as drained at 205 pounds as it was at middleweight, his opposition also hits harder in the higher weight class. For what it's worth, Costa has been knocked out just once, against Israel Adesanya in a title fight. His durability has generally always been on point.
If this quickly devloves into a striking match, which I don't see how it ends up being anything other than that, my instinct is that Costa is in trouble.
He still gets hit far too much, absorbing 6.2 significant strikes per minute on the whole. He did a better job of negating the damage his last time out against Roman Kopylov last July, but I think Murzakanov is a much more dangerous opponent.
If Costa isn't finishing his opposition, and that hasn't been the case for many years, he's going to have to outwork Murzakanov, plus survive the massive blows coming his way. I see both of those outcomes as far more likely than a Costa knockout win.
Maybe Costa will see the final bell considering he's displayed insane durability in the past, but this is another easy pick. Give me the guy that has been rolling through everyone since coming on the scene.
UFC 327 PICK: Murzakanov
Heavyweight
Curtis Blaydes (19-5-0, 1NC) v. Josh Hokit (8-0-0)
DK Salaries: Blaydes ($8,400), Hokit ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Blaydes (-140), Hokit (+120)
Blaydes continues to serve as a fringe top-five heavyweight, a role he has filled for several years. He's had major problems winning the "big" fight over the course of his UFC run and is just 2-2 in his past four bouts dating back to April 2023. His biggest win came over UFC Heavyweight Champion Tom Aspinall back in July 2022, but that was a 15-second injury TKO after Aspinall ripped his knee to pieces. Other than that, the win I rate the highest was a 2020 unanimous decision over Alexander Volkov. Blaydes looked awful his last time out, a gifted a split decision win over Rizvan Kuniev last February. There's an overwhelming chance we've already seen the best the 35-year-old has to offer inside the octagon.
Hokit is highly intriuging because of his athletic prowess. He played D1 college football at Fresno State, has a high-level wrestling background, and is still just 28 years old. Hokit has made a name for himself in a short pertiod of time because of his antics in interviews, but he's a talented guy with real upside. The immediate downside is that he has all of eight professional fights under his belt (including two with the UFC) and has faced no one of note. Blaydes, even in a somewhat diminished capacity, represents a massive step up in competition.
Curtis' past success has been directly tied to his grappling, pace, and athleticism. He moves better than 95 percent of the heavyweights on the roster. He has excellent cardio and the ability to outwork his opposition consistently over the course of three rounds.
While that sounds good on paper, and his 5.38 takedowns per 15 minutes looks great, the bottom line is that his wrestling game has dried up almost completely of late. Blaydes has landed just two takedowns -- both against Kuniev -- in his past five fights. Now, some of that is highly misleading because three of those fights ended in Round 1 and another couple early in Round 2, but he's clearly not spamming together attempts like we saw earlier in his UFC run. I'm a lot less interested in this version of Blaydes than the prior guy.
Hokit's numbers are irrelvelant because his UFC run has consisted of two fights totaling 5:55. Nothing we saw against Denzel Freeman or Max Gimenis will give us any info in regards to what to expect against Blaydes.
I will say that on paper, Hokit appears to do several things which could give Curtis problems. The footwork looks solid. Even at his best, Blaydes' takedown attempts consisted of blast double legs on lesser athletes.
Is Curtis going to go back to that power wrestling style we saw in his heyday? Maybe, but Hokit still may be a good enough athlete to be able to hang in there.
Much like my view in the Israel Adesanya v. Joe Pyfer main event a couple weeks ago, I'd rather bet on what we may see from Hokit moving forward as opposed to what we have seen from Blaydes in the past.
UFC 327 PICK: Hokit
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Light Heavyweight
Dominick Reyes (15-5-0) v. Johnny Walker (22-9-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Reyes ($8,300), Walker ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Reyes (-135), Walker (+115)
This is a strange fight. My initial instinct is that it's a matchup that makes sense because I find it hard to believe both of these guys, or even one, are going to be legitimate long-term options, even in a thin 205-pound division. Plus is should be highly entertaining.
Reyes should have defeated Jon Jones for the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship back in February 2020. Instead, Jones got the decision and that set off a string of four straight losses for Reyes. He looked like an obvious release candidate, but the company stuck with him and Dom responded with three straight wins. Then he met Ulberg last September and was finished in a shade over four minutes. Reyes' last seven fights have ended via knockout, with four coming in Round 1 and none getting past Round 2. He's the definition of a 50/50 fighter.
Walker is in essentially the same exact spot as Reyes. He lost four of five from November 2019 to February 2022, responded with a three-fight winning streak, and has just a single victory in four fights since (0-2, 1NC). Like Dom, Johnny has zero durability but also possesses the requisite skill set to put forth an impressive performance here and there.
Walker enters with a two-inch edge in height and whopping five-inch edge in reach. I typically don't put a ton of stock in such numbers, but both of these guys are going to be swinging from the bleachers from the outset in search of a finish.
If Walker can do so from distance and perhaps not put himself at as much risk in the process, that's worth noting.
Of course, neither of these guys, Walker in particular, are known for their high fight IQ. I expect both to fight foolishly in search of an immediate finish and I don't expect it to last long. The under, as opposed to a straight up winner, seems like the safest bet of all.
From top to bottom, this is one of the deepest cards the UFC has put together in maybe years. I don't want to be getting involved in a coin flip fight between two untrustworthy guys.
I lean Walker ever so slightly, but it's impossible to have any conviction with a pick between a pair of fighters that have combined for 10 knockout losses.
UFC 327 PICK: Walker
Featherweight
Cub Swanson (30-14-0) v. Nate Landwehr (18-7-0)
DK Salaries: Swanson ($7,900), Landwehr ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Swanson (+100), Landwehr (-120)
It took the rescheduling of the Van v. Taira fight to get this matchup onto the main card, but it's a well-deserved reward for Swanson in his retirement fight. A former WEC standout, Cub joined the UFC in November 2011. Over the course of his career, he has been in there with the likes of Jens Pulver, Jose Aldo, Chad Mendes, Charles Oliveira, Dustin Poirier, Max Holloway, Brian Ortega, Frankie Edgar, and more. He's one of the sport's true OG's and a guy you will never hear anyone say a bad word about. Swanson has alternated wins and losses in his past seven fights, so while the competition level has soften considerably recently, he still has some gas left in the tank.
Landwehr, who will be 38 years old in June, appears to be in a similar situation, although he certainly hasn't announced his intention to retire. Nate has lost back-to-back fights and three of four, this all on the heels of a three-fight winning streak. Landwehr is an all-action brawler. He's all about putting on entertaining fights, so as a result, he's never going to gain the neccesary traction to make a rise up the division ranks. Not that it would likely be happening anyway given his advanced age.
Cub actually employs a similar style. He's aggressive on the feet and constantly looking to pressure his opponent. He's slowed down a bit, which is totally understandable at age 42, and the main reason he struggles at times. His hand speed is just a bit off and he doesn't quite get his head off the center line as effective in his hey day. That said, he still picks his spots better than Landwehr and displays a much higher fight IQ. The latter is most definitely his biggest advantage here.
I'm fully certain Nate couldn't change his style at this point even if he wanted to. He's kill-or-be-killed at all times. For what it's worth, three of Cub's last four wins have come via knockout, while Landwehr has been KO'ed in back-to-back bouts. In Nate's durability is shot, or close to it, he's finished as an effective fighter.
Most "retirement fights" go terribly for the competitor hanging up their gloves. Michael Chiesa was one of the rare exceptions a couple weeks ago, but he was handed a late-notice layup against Niko Price.
I will say that this seems like a pretty good matchup for Cub. He's facing an opponent that can be foolishly aggressive at times. Swanson has been knocked out just three times in 44 professional fights.
The DK salaries seem fine, I just expected them to be reversed. My inital lean was Cub would be favored by a few hundred dollars. I'll happily pocket those savings and hope he can come through for me one final time.
UFC 327 PICK: Swanson
OTHER BOUTS
Featherweight
Patricio Freire (37-8-0) v. Aaron Pico (13-5-0)
DK Salaries: Freire ($7,000), Pico ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Freire (+275), Pico (-345)
UFC 327 PICK: Pico
Welterweight
Kevin Holland (28-15-0, 1NC) v. Randy Brown (20-7-0)
DK Salaries: Holland ($7,800), Brown ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Holland (+100), Brown (-120)
UFC 327 PICK: Brown
Lightweight
Mateusz Gamrot (25-4-0, 1NC) v. Esteban Ribovics (15-2-0)
DK Salaries: Gamrot ($8,600), Ribovics ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Gamrot (-180), Ribovics (+150)
UFC 327 PICK: Gamrot
Women's Strawweight
Tatiana Suarez (12-1-0) v. Lupita Godinez (14-5-0)
DK Salaries: Suarez ($8,500), Godinez ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Suarez (-155), Godinez (+130)
UFC 327 PICK: Suarez
Lightweight
Chris Padilla (17-6-0) v. Marquel Mederos (11-1-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Padilla (-180), Mederos (+150)
UFC 327 PICK: Padilla
Middleweight
Kelvin Gastelum (21-10-0, 1NC) v. Vicente Luque (23-12-1)
DK Salaries: Gastelum ($9,000), Luque ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Gastelum (-250), Luque (+205)
UFC 327 PICK: Gastelum
Welterweight
Charlie Radtke (11-5-0) v. Francisco Prado (12-4-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Radtke (-185), Prado (+155)
UFC 327 PICK: Prado
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
