Top DFS Picks and Strategies for UFC Vegas 118
DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Macau card are live. Included in this preview are profiles for each fighter and breakdowns of my DFS strategy for every bout on the card. Welcome to Drake's Takes.
UFC Vegas 118 Picks & Career Results:
2026 Overall Picks: 155-61-2
2025 Overall Picks: 345-152-2
DFS Lock of the Week: Baraniewski
Fanduel Captain: Baraniewski
Belal Muhammad (24-5-0) v. Gabriel Bonfim (19-1-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 24-5 (5 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Elite pressure fighter with outstanding cardio and wrestling
- Excels at breaking opponents with pace, volume, and control
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 19-1 (4 KO/TKO, 13 submissions)
- Dangerous grappler with excellent submission ability
- Continues to improve and has shown a well-rounded offensive game
DFS Perspective:
This is a fascinating matchup between one of the division's established veterans and a rising contender. Muhammad's pressure, cardio and wrestling have proven effective against elite competition for years, but Bonfim poses a real threat with his submission game and overall athleticism. The biggest question is whether Bonfim can handle Muhammad's pace over three rounds. If Muhammad can force a grinding fight, he can take over late. If Bonfim finds opportunities early, he has the tools to make this very interesting. My slight lean is to Muhammad, due to experience and proven success against high-level competition.
UFC Vegas 118 Pick: Muhammad
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Brendan Allen (26-7-0) v. Edmen Shahbazyan (16-5-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 26-7 (6 KO/TKO, 14 submissions)
- Well-rounded middleweight with strong grappling and submission ability
- Most effective when mixing pressure, wrestling, and control together
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16-5 (13 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Dangerous striker with power and fast starts
- Can struggle when opponents survive early and force grappling exchanges
DFS Perspective:
This should be a good matchup for Allen. Shahbazyan is always dangerous early, but Allen has clear advantages in grappling, control and overall durability. If Allen can weather the early offense and get this fight into his world, he should be able to take over. Allen profiles as the preferred side with strong grappling upside.
UFC Vegas 118 Pick: Allen
Fares Ziam (18-4-0) v. Tom Nolan (10-1-0)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18-4 (6 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Technical striker with good range management and improving grappling
- Does a good job controlling distance and winning rounds with activity
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 10-1 (5 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Long, powerful striker with strong finishing ability
- Dangerous when able to establish range and force opponents into exchanges
DFS Perspective:
This should be a very competitive fight. Ziam is the more proven UFC fighter and has continued to improve, while Nolan brings the size, power and finishing upside. If Ziam can mix in his grappling and avoid prolonged striking battles, he can frustrate Nolan over three rounds. Slight lean Ziam due to experience, but both sides have DFS appeal.
UFC Vegas 118 Pick: Ziam
Bryce Mitchell (18-3-0) v. Santiago Luna (8-0-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 18-3 (1 KO/TKO, 9 submissions)
- Elite grappler with relentless wrestling and top control
- Most effective when forcing opponents into extended grappling exchanges
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-0 (3 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Undefeated prospect with a balanced skill set and finishing ability
- Still largely untested against high-level UFC competition
DFS Perspective:
This is a massive jump in competition for Luna. Mitchell has faced far better opposition and should have a significant edge in wrestling, grappling and overall experience. If Mitchell can implement his usual game plan, he can control this fight from start to finish. Mitchell profiles as one of the stronger grappling plays on the card.
UFC Vegas 118 Pick: Mitchell
Matt Schnell (17-10-0) v. Alessandro Costa (15-5-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-10 (2 KO/TKO, 9 submissions)
- Scrappy veteran with dangerous submission ability and plenty of experience
- Often finds himself in wild fights with momentum swings and finishing opportunities
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15-5 (6 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Well-rounded flyweight with sharp striking and improving grappling
- Has shown the ability to control fights and create damage over three rounds
DFS Perspective:
This feels like a strong matchup for Costa. Schnell is always dangerous and capable of finding a submission out of nowhere, but he has become increasingly difficult to trust. Costa is the cleaner striker, the younger fighter, and should be able to dictate where this fight takes place. If he stays disciplined, he should be able to put together a dominant performance. Costa profiles as the preferred side with solid DFS upside.
UFC Vegas 118 Pick: Costa
Iwo Baraniewski (8-0-0) v. Junior Tafa (7-5-0)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-0 (6 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Undefeated heavyweight with serious power and finishing ability
- Continues to look like one of the more promising heavyweight prospects
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7-5 (7 KO/TKO)
- Heavy-handed striker who relies heavily on knockout power
- Limited outside of striking and has struggled against more complete fighters
DFS Perspective:
This should be a cake walk for Baraniewski. He looks like the more complete fighter and should have advantages in both skill and overall upside. Tafa is always live for a knockout, but if Baraniewski fights smart, he should be able to control the fight and eventually find a finish of his own. Baraniewski profiles as one of the stronger plays on the slate.
UFC Vegas 118 Pick: Baraniewski
Marcus McGhee (10-2-0) v. John Yannis (10-4-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-2 (8 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Explosive striker with serious power and finishing ability
- Most dangerous when he can force exchanges and create damage early
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 10-4 (6 KO/TKO)
- Aggressive striker who prefers to keep fights standing
- Can be dangerous offensively, but has shown defensive vulnerabilities
DFS Perspective:
This feels like a good spot for McGhee. He has a cleaner striking style, more power and has consistently shown the ability to create finishing opportunities. Yannis is willing to engage, which could play right into McGhee's strengths. If McGhee lands clean, he has a strong chance to find a finish. McGhee profiles as a strong play with knockout upside.
UFC Vegas 118 Pick: McGhee
Bruno Silva (15-8-2) v. Edgar Chairez (13-6-0)
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15-8-2 (6 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Aggressive flyweight with solid grappling and submission ability
- Has consistently faced tough competition throughout his UFC run
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13-6 (4 KO/TKO, 8 submissions)
- Dangerous submission specialist with strong finishing instincts
- Capable of creating problems on the mat, but has shown some inconsistency
DFS Perspective:
This should be a competitive fight with plenty of grappling exchanges. Both fighters are dangerous on the mat and capable of finding submissions. I would give a slight lean to Silva due to the level of competition he has faced throughout his career. Chairez also looked hesitant at times in his last fight, which raises some concerns heading into this matchup. Silva profiles as the preferred side in a closely contested fight.
UFC Vegas 118 Pick: Silva
Chelsea Chandler (6-4-0) v. Priscila Cachoeira (13-8-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 6-4 (2 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Physical fighter who prefers to make fights ugly and grind opponents down
- Has struggled with consistency and defensive striking at times
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13-8 (8 KO/TKO)
- Aggressive striker with real knockout power for the division
- Most dangerous when opponents are willing to engage in prolonged exchanges
DFS Perspective:
This feels like a prime spot for Cachoeira to pull off an upset. Chandler has shown defensive issues on the feet, and Cachoeira has the power to capitalize if given opportunities. As an underdog, she brings legitimate knockout upside and could be one of the more interesting GPP targets on the slate. Slight lean Cachoeira to score a knockout win.
UFC Vegas 118 Pick: Cachoeira
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Jordan Leavitt (13-3-0) v. Joanderson Brito (18-5-1)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 13-3 (1 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Grappling-heavy fighter with solid control and submission ability
- Most effective when slowing fights down and forcing opponents into his world
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18-5-1 (8 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)
- Explosive and well-rounded with power, wrestling, and finishing ability
- Dangerous in every phase and constantly pushes for finishes
DFS Perspective:
This is a difficult matchup for Leavitt. Brito is the more explosive athlete, the better striker, and has the grappling skills to avoid being controlled for long stretches. Leavitt's path is through wrestling and control, but Brito has shown he can handle strong grapplers while creating his own offense. Brito profiles as one of the stronger plays on the slate with upside to finish in multiple ways.
UFC Vegas 118 Pick: Brito
Jeisla Chaves (6-0-0) v. Yuneisy Duben (6-1-0)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 6-0 (3 KO/TKO)
- Undefeated prospect with a well-rounded skill set
- Shows good composure and the ability to mix striking with grappling
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 6-1 (5 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Aggressive striker with real power for the division
- Looks to pressure early and create damage on the feet
DFS Perspective:
This is an interesting matchup between two fighters still early in their careers. Duben brings more raw power and finishing upside, while Chaves appears to be the more complete fighter overall. If Chaves is able to mix in grappling and avoid prolonged striking exchanges, she should be able to dictate the pace. Slight lean Chaves in a competitive matchup.
UFC Vegas 118 Pick: Chaves
Ketlen Souza (16-6-0) v. Ariane Carnelossi (15-4-0)
- Height: 5'3" – Reach: 63" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 16-6 (8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Aggressive and well-rounded with power on the feet and submission ability
- Dangerous in fast-paced fights where she can create damage early
- Height: 5'2" – Reach: 61" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15-4 (9 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Physical striker with heavy hands and forward pressure
- Most effective when turning fights into brawls and forcing exchanges
DFS Perspective:
This should be a fun fight while it lasts. Both women are willing to engage and have finishing ability, which creates solid DFS appeal. Souza appears to be the more complete fighter overall and has more ways to win if the fight extends. Carnelossi is always dangerous with her power, but Souza profiles as the preferred side in a high-action matchup.
UFC Vegas 118 Pick: Souza
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
