UFC Vegas 118 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
Check out the top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC Vegas 118. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $350k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Welterweight
Belal Muhammad (24-5-0, 1NC) v. Gabriel Bonfim (19-1-0)
DK Salaries: Muhammad ($8,300), Bonfim ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Muhammad (-120), Bonfim (+100)
Muhammad lost his UFC Welterweight Championship last May, falling to Jack Della Maddalena just a handful of months after he won the title in shocking, dominant fashion from Leon Edwards. Belal followed that up with a unanimous decision loss to Ian Garry in November and now finds himself in a must-win situation here against Bonfim. Set to turn 38 years old in July, Muhammad won't be able to overcome a three-fight losing streak.
Bonfim is 7-1 in his first eight UFC fights. The one setback was a knockout loss to Nicolas Dalby in which he started quickly before badly gassing. Four of the seven wins are via stoppage, including three via submission. As great as Bonfim has looked, he still hasn't faced anywhere near the competition level of Muhammad. Gabriel's two best wins with the company are a split decision over late-career Stephen Thompson and a knockout of Randy Brown his last time out in November.
As has been the case his entire UFC run, Belal relies on cardio and wrestling to be successful.
He has literally zero power, so if the takedowns aren't landing, he's in big trouble. He went 3-of-9 against Della Maddalena and 0-for-7 against Garry. It's very much position over damage, although Muhammad typically stays busy from the top, even if the blows aren't accomplishing much.
Bonfim is equally reliant on his ground game, although my advice to him here would be to just try to overwhelm Muhammad on the feet. He doesn't have to worry about the knockout -- Belal has just one KO in the past decade -- so try to pressure him in the stand-up and take him out early. He's never going to top Muhammad in the cardio department, which is arguably Belal's biggest advantage in this fight, so going for broke early doesn't seem like a bad play.
Muhammad's career takedown defense is 90 percent. It's rare for someone to ever even attempt to wrestle him because he's almost always the guy pressuring and leading the dance.
This is a coin flip for me, which is right in line with the posted odds.
In the end, I keep coming back to Belal's perceived cardio advantage. I think this fight is going to last a while, and I think Muhammad can outwork and outpace Bonfim in the later rounds.
I'm not on too many underdogs on this card, and I'll probably use Bonfim in a couple spots just for the few hundred dollars salary relief, but my best guess is that Belal wins a competitive decision.
THE PICK: Muhammad
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Co-Main Event - Middleweight
Brendan Allen (26-7-0) v. Edmen Shahbazyan (16-5-0)
DK Salaries: Allen ($8,800), Shahbazyan ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Allen (-220), Shahbazyan (+180)
Allen doesn't get talked about much when discussing the best middleweights on the roster, but he deserves to be. He's 9-2 dating back to February 2022, and the two setbacks came against legitimate contenders in Anthony Hernandez and Nassourdine Imavov. His most recent fight, a knockout victory over Reinier de Ridder in a main event in October, may have been his most impressive performance to date. Allen probably isn't on the same tier as the best 185-pounders, but he's not far off.
Shahbazyan somehow won't be 29 years old until November despite seemingly being around forever. He's among the most inconsistent fighters in the sport, having lost five of seven from August 2020 to August 2024 before responding with a three-fight winning streak. The recent string of success looks great on paper, with two of the wins coming via knockout, but the victories are over Andre Muniz, Andre Petroski and Dylan Budka. To say Allen is an upgrade in competition is the understatement of the century.
I give Allen a lot of credit for accepting this fight, because rankings-wise, he has nothing to gain and everything to lose.
In case you have figured it out yet, I'm not buying this Shahbazyan resurgence. Sure, the power is legitimate, and he seems to be picky his spots better than he had been, but he's doing so against inferior fighters.
I don't trust his ability to take a punch, as durability has been an issue in the past. I don't think much of his cardio, although this is a three-round fight.
At 6-foot-2 with a 75-inch reach, Allen is the exact same size as Edmen, so neither man will have an edge there.
Brendan is a far from a perfect fighter, but he's tough, gritty and more well-rounded than Shahbazyan.
Allen has a ridiculous 14 career wins via submission. He mixes things up pretty well and has always been quite good at tailoring his game plan to his opposition. If he's facing a guy that can't defend a takedown, he'll wrestle. If he's facing an opponent with durability issues that can't take a punch, he'll pressure you on the feet.
I have a very hard time seeing Shahbazyan outworking him over 15 minutes, and while Edmen has some power and is live for a knockout, it would likely have to come in the early-going.
Allen looks like a real value play given his price tag.
THE PICK: Allen
Lightweight
Fares Ziam (18-4-0) v. Tom Nolan (10-1-0)
DK Salaries: Ziam ($9,100), Nolan ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Ziam (-325), Nolan (+260)
Another fighter who is criminally underrated, Ziam has won six fights in a row dating back to September 2022. The UFC has taken it easy with him in regards to the level of competition Ziam has been matched up against, but he's a talented operator. He's won two of his last three via knockout and turned just 29 years of age in March. Ziam is a legitimate top-15 guy in a loaded lightweight division.
Nolan has rebounded exceptionally well from a 63-second knockout loss to Nikolas Motta in his UFC debut back in January 2024. He's won four straight since, including a pair via stoppage (although again, it's almost all come against lower-level competition). Born in March 2000, Nolan is an obvious guy to monitor moving forward when you combine his youth with his success to date.
At 6-foot-3, Nolan is one of the biggest guys in the lightweight division.
He's a high-volume striker and the type of guy that is willing to eat a strike in order to land two of his own. Nolan throws plenty of kicks, and he's willing to invest in the body.
That said, he's giving up a couple inches in reach to Ziam.
The Frenchman has become increasingly reliant on his wrestling game over time. Although he averages just 1.73 takedowns per 15 minutes, Ziam has landed 10 successful takedowns in his last three fights.
Ziam is by no means a big ground-and-pound guy, so it's imperative he win with positioning should he get the fight to the mat. He does land 40 percent of his takedown attempts, which is an encouraging number.
I don't have much interest in dropping $9,100 on Ziam, even if I think he's going to win. I simply don't see $2,000 difference in salary between these two.
THE PICK: Ziam
Bantamweight
Bryce Mitchell (18-4-0) v. Santiago Luna (8-0-0)
DK Salaries: Mitchell ($8,500), Luna ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Mitchell (-150), Luna (+125)
This was supposed to be Mitchell v. Victor Henry before the latter was forced to withdraw. Luna accepted the assignment a shade over a week before the fight is due to take place.
Mitchell has been a .500 fighter in his last six fights dating back to December 2022. He mixed things up his last time out against Said Nurmagomedov last July, returning to bantamweight for the first time since his 2015 professional debut, and it resulted in a unanimous decision win. I've long maintained that Bryce would be better served getting out of his comfort zone and going to train with a big team, but he likes to do his own thing in his native Arkansas. I think his ceiling is limited as a result.
Our exposure to Luna has been extremely limited. He joined the UFC last September with all of six professional fights under his belt and proceeded to score a first-round knockout win over Quang Le in his company debut. He followed that up with a sweep on the scorecards over Angel Pacheco in February in Mexico City. Luna is a real prospect, but this is a big ask, especially on short notice.
The story regarding Mitchell hasn't changed over the years. He's entirely reliant on his wrestling game for success and will only go as far as his grappling will take him.
Theoretically, it should work better in the lighter weight class. At 5-foot-10, Mitchell is a big bantamweight.
His striking has never developed much at all. He's awkward and uncomfortable on the feet, particularly in prolonged exchanges. He often appears to lunging and off-balance. I would take any halfway-decent opponent over Bryce on the feet.
Because the sample size is so small, the numbers on Luna tell us nothing. He's averaging 8.2 significant strikes landed per minute in addition to 4.21 takedowns per 15 minutes. Obviously, neither of those are going to last.
He overwhelmed Pacheco with both volume and positioning, but it's worth noting that Angel landed his only takedown attempt in that fight, and he's not half, or even a quarter, the wrestler Mitchell is.
I wish the price tag was better, but this is a Luna underdog play for me. I'm 100 percent confident he can topple Bryce on the feet. Of course, it could easily blow up in my face if he can't defend a takedown, but Luna is without a doubt one of the better underdog plays on the entire card, win or lose.
THE PICK: Luna
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Other Bouts
Light Heavyweight
Iwo Baraniewski (8-0-0) v. Junior Tafa (7-5-0)
DK Salaries: Baraniewski ($9,000), Tafa ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Baraniewski (-360), Tafa (+285)
THE PICK: Baraniewski
Catchweight (130 pounds)
Matt Schnell (17-10-0, 1NC) v. Alessandro Costa (15-5-0)
DK Salaries: Schnell ($6.400), Costa ($9,800)
Vegas Odds: Schnell (+525), Costa (-750)
THE PICK: Costa
Bantamweight
Marcus McGhee (10-2-0) v. John Yannis (10-4-0)
DK Salaries: McGhee ($9,500), Yannis ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: McGhee (-500), Yannis (+380)
THE PICK: McGhee
Flyweight
Bruno Silva (15-8-2, 1NC) v. Edgar Chairez (13-6-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Silva ($8,400), Chairez ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Silva (-140), Chairez (+120)
THE PICK: Chairez
Women's Bantamweight
Priscila Cachoeira (13-8-0) v. Chelsea Chandler (6-4-0)
DK Salaries: Cachoeira ($8,000), Chandler ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Cachoeira (+105), Chandler (-125)
THE PICK: Cachoeira
Featherweight
Jordan Leavitt (13-3-0) v. Joanderson Brito (18-5-1)
DK Salries: Leavitt ($7,600), Brito ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Leavitt (+160), Brito (-190)
THE PICK: Brito
Women's Flyweight
Jeisla Chaves (7-0-0) v. Yuneisy Duben (6-1-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Chaves ($9,300), Duben ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Chaves (-395), Duben (+310)
THE PICK: Chaves
Women's Strawweight
Ketlen Souza (16-6-0) v. Ariane Carnelossi (15-4-0)
DK Salaries: Souza ($8,900), Carnelossi ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Souza (-305), Carnelossi (+295)
THE PICK: Souza
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
