The UFC returns to the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Saturday, June 6, for UFC Vegas 118. In the main event, former welterweight champion Belal Muhammad takes on Gabriel Bonfim in a high-stakes bout at 170 pounds.
Below, I'll share my UFC Vegas 118 predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC Vegas 118 Betting Favorite
Bruno Silva (15-8-2) vs. Edgar Chairez (13-6) -- Flyweight
On the prelims at UFC Vegas 118 is a fun flyweight bout between Bruno Silva and Edgar Chairez, and I like the Brazilian, Silva, to get his hand raised.
Silva is a tough out and has fought high-level competition, as his last three losses are to Charles Johnson (split decision), Joshua Van and Manel Kape. Chairez has won back-to-back fights, but the level of competition hasn't been close.
Silva has the wrestling advantage in this matchup, as he's averaging over two takedowns per fight, while Chairez has a takedown defense of just 38 percent.
On the feet, they are pretty similar, but I like Silva to mix in the wrestling and clinch work to win minutes. He also has more power, and his cardio isn't a question. I like Silva to edge out a decision or possibly get a third-round stoppage when Chairez begins to fade.
UFC Vegas 118 Bet: Bruno Silva (-142)
UFC Vegas 118 Underdog Play
Santiago Luna (8-0) vs. Bryce Mitchell (18-3) -- Bantamweight
For my underdog pick at UFC Vegas 118, I'm taking Santiago Luna to remain undefeated and hand Bryce Mitchell a loss.
Luna is one of the top prospects in the sport and someone I've been high on. He's been impressive so far with a 2-0 record in the UFC. Although he is taking this fight on short notice, I like this matchup and was surprised to see he was the underdog.
Luna is a phenomenal, well-rounded fighter, and I think he should be able to have success whether it's on the feet or the mat. He also has plenty of power, and I worry about Mitchell's chin considering he is dropping to 135lbs and cutting more weight.
I like Luna to be the aggressor in this fight and land heavy shots to score a TKO win over Mitchell for the biggest win of his career.
UFC Vegas 118 Bet: Santiago Luna (+120)
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UFC Vegas 118 Prop Bet
Marcus McGhee (10-2) vs. John Yannis (10-4) - Bantamweight
For my prop at UFC Vegas 118, I'm taking Marcus McGhee to score a KO/TKO/DQ win over John Yannis on the prelims.
McGhee is coming off a decision loss to Petr Yan, which was a good learning experience for him, and now he gets a massive step down in competition in what seems like a set-up fight. Yannis is 1-1 in the UFC, but I haven't been impressed with his striking and striking defense.
I expect McGhee to be the much more technical striker, pick apart Yannis and land heavy shots. Eventually, I expect it to be too much, as McGhee should get a KO win likely in the second round due to the accumulation of damage.
UFC Vegas 118 Bet: Marcus McGhee by KO/TKO/DQ (+135)
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UFC Vegas 118 Parlay
Iwo Baraniewski (8-0) vs. Junior Tafa (7-5) -- Light Heavyweight
Brendan Allen (26-7) vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (16-5) -- Middleweight
For my parlay at UFC Vegas 118, I'm taking Iwo Baraniewski and Brendan Allen to get their hands raised Saturday.
Baraniewski is 2-0 in the UFC and coming off two KO wins in the first round, but his debut is what was impressive. He got hurt multiple times but was able to survive and eventually KO Ibo Aslan. Tafa, meanwhile, is 3-5 in the UFC, and he's someone I haven't been impressed with, as his ground game is a huge issue. I like Baraniewski to land heavy shots, and even if he doesn't TKO Tafa, he should be able to eventually sink in a submission. Look for him to finish Tafa early here.
To close out the parlay, I'm backing Allen to beat Edmen Shahbazyan in the co-main event. I don't understand this fight, as Allen is levels above Shahbazyan, and he's only a -225 favorite. Although Shahbazyan has won three straight fights, the level of competition hasn't been there, while Allen is coming off an impressive, high-level win over Reinier de Ridder.
Allen should be able to control Shahbazyan on the ground and wear him out en route to a submission or ground-and-pound TKO win, similar to what Anthony Hernandez and Nassourdine Imavov were able to do to him.
UFC Vegas 118 Bet: Iwo Baraniewski & Brendan Allen parlay (-122)
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UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC Vegas 118 card.
- Bruno Silva (-142)
- Santiago Luna (+120)
- Marcus McGhee by KO/TKO/DQ (+135)
- Iwo Baraniewski & Brendan Allen parlay (-122)
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