UFC Freedom DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
A new milestone for the Paramount+ era of the UFC is upon us, and as it currently stands, the UFC will be putting on an abbreviated, 7-fight card on the White House front lawn. With the short card also comes the launch of Captain Mode on DraftKings. Dive into the top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje on Saturday at the White House, and build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $500k UFC 250 Special with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules (aka Captain Mode!) are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Lightweight Championship
(C) Ilia Topuria (17-0-0) v. (IC) Justin Gaethje (27-5-0)
DK Salaries: Topuria ($9,600), Gaethje ($5,400)
Vegas Odds: Topuria (-500), Gaethje (+380)
Topuria's greatness isn't in question but when you sit back and think about it, it's simply crazy everything he's accomplished at age 29. He's a perfect 9-0 with the UFC (and undefeated as a professional), with seven of the wins coming via stoppage, including six via knockout.
Topuria knocked out Alexander Volkanovski to win the UFC Featherweight Championship back in February 2024. He then knocked out Max Holloway in October of that year to defend the title before vacating it to move up to lightweight where he, you guessed it, knocked out Charles Oliveira in less than three minutes last June to win the vacant 155-pound crown. This will be his first defense at lightweight.
Fighting for some version of the UFC Lightweight Championship for the fourth time, Gaethje finally got over the hump in January by defeating Paddy Pimblett via unanimous decision. It was a back-and-forth war in which both men had their moments, but as is always the case, you don't want to be betting against Gaethje in those type of fights.
Set to turn 38 years of age in November, I think it's overwhelmingly likely we have already seen the best Justin has to offer inside the Octagon, especially if the UFC is going to continue to feed him the toughest matchups possible. But Gaethje remains arguably the most entertaining fighter in the sport, so he's not going anywhere.
Topuria's power is truly elite. He could seemingly be stuck in neutral for an entire fight before one blow finishes his opponent in an instant. I had little doubt power of this level would carry over to the higher weight class, and if the Oliveira fight was any indication, it remains a difference-maker for Ilia.
Oh, he's also a very good wrestler (1.96 takedowns landed per 15 minutes) and responsible defensively (3.83 significant strikes absorbed per minute). If you want to make a case Topuria is the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world, I'm not going to argue.
Gaethje deserves credit for changing the way he fights to some extent in the latter part of his career. He remains aggressive on the feet throughout, but not recklessly slow. Back in his WSOF (PFL) days, he would simply blitz his opposition and let the chips falls where they may. Because he was often fighting inferior competition that couldn't match his power or durability, he'd still win, no-problem. That doesn't work against the best in the world.
Justin still tends to get hit. A ton. By the numbers, it's 7.05 significant strikes absorbed per minute. Heck, Pimblett out landed him 156-144 in terms of significant strikes. Gaethje's two knockdowns and three takedowns were the difference there, but blow-for-blow, Padddy hung in there.
Now you have to face a guy that, although four inches shorter, has about as much power as any man in the sport.
In order for Gaethje to get to his offense, he's going to have to put himself in harm's way. I don't see how he survives the heat coming back his way.
I'm not telling you anything you don't already know. The odds in this fight as massively lopsided for a reason. Not only is Gaethje facing arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter around, but he's also facing a guy that is a terrible stylistic matchup for him. I can see Justin's durability holding up longer than most think, but I think Topuria catches him eventually.
However, keep in mind all the DraftKings salaries on this card are wonky cause there's only seven fights. Gaethje is the second-lowest priced fighter on the slate, and when you look at it from that point of view, he's a somewhat appealing dart throw because you know he's going to fight for your dollar every step of the way. He also has a chance, theoretically to fight five rounds to rack up points.
THE PICK: Topuria
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Co-Main Event - Interim UFC Heavyweight Championship
Alex Pereira (13-3-0) v. Ciryl Gane (13-2-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Pereira ($7,400), Gane ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Pereira (-110), Gane (-110)
Set to turn 39 years old a handful of weeks after this event takes place, Pereira continues to go about his business. He's 6-1 in his past seven fights, with five of the wins coming via knockout and each of the past six fights being for the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship. He lost his 205-pound crowd to Magomed Ankalaev in March 2025, only to get it right back in October of last year with a dominant 80-second KO win. This will be his heavyweight debut.
Gane also fought last October, facing off against Tom Aspinall for the undisputed heavyweight crown. He probably didn't deserve the opportunity considering he was coming off a split decision win over Alexander Volkov in which he certainly lost, but Ciryl looked excellent against Aspinall for four-plus minutes before an accidental eye poke led to a no-contest. I've never been a big Gane guy, but he's clearly better than I've given him credit for.
Pereira never wrestles, so he's only going to go as far as his power takes him. There's really no reason to think the power won't carry over to the heavyweight division, but we haven't seen it yet, so we can't say for sure.
My initial lean was towards Pereira, but the more I think about it, the more I think Gane is the play.
I think it's important to note Gane isn't some massive heavyweight. He weighed in for the Aspinall fight at 247.5 pounds. He's also not some plodding type power-puncher.
He's not going to stand in front of Pereira and let Alex unload on him on the feet.
On average, Gane absorbs just 2.33 significant strikes per minute. He's an excellent athlete. It's imperative he keeps his back off the cage so he doesn't get cornered by Pereira. I think he has the footwork and fluidity to do so.
I also think there's a very realistic chance he tries to wrestle here. Gane has taken down four opponents in his UFC career: Volkov, Francis Ngannou, Jair Rozenstruik and Don'Tale Mayes. What all those guys have in common is that they're pure one-dimensional strikers, just like Pereira.
In a fight that is a very definition of a pick 'em in every sense of the word, I'll back the guy that is a natural heavyweight and one of the division's best athletes over a soon-to-be 39-year-old moving up a division.
THE PICK: Gane
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Bantamweight
Sean O'Malley (19-3-0, 1NC) v. Aiemann Zahabi (14-2-0)
DK Salaries: O'Malley ($9,200), Zahabi ($5,800)
Vegas Odds: O'Malley (-410), Zahabi (+320)
O'Malley continues to have his issues with opposition that employ wrestling-heavy game plans, but he also continues to roll through pretty much everyone that is willing to stand and trade with him. O'Malley rebounded from his back-to-back losses to Merab Dvalishvili in title fights to take a unanimous decision from Yadong Song in January. I wouldn't say Sean looked great in that bout, but Song is a tough opponent. He seems much better positioned for success in this one.
The inclusion of Zahabi on this card is by far the most baffling decision. That's not to say he doesn't deserve it. The Canadian has won seven fights in a row dating back to February 2021, but he remains a virtual unknown amongst casual fans, making him a very strange fit for what is theoretically the biggest production the UFC has ever put together.
What all this leads me to believe is that the UFC wanted O'Malley on this card because he's immensely popular, and company brass wanted to put him in there against an opponent they knew he could look good against.
In what projects as a 15-minute kickboxing match, O'Malley has a four-inch edge in height and three-inch edge in reach.
He lands more than Zahabi (6.05 significant strikes landed per minute to 4.54) and he gets hit less than Zahabi (3.4 significant stirkes absorbed per minute to 4.08).
So, not only will Zahabi have to try to get inside against a taller, longer opponent, he's only going to have to try to get inside against an opponent in Sean that is a master at using kicks to properly manage distance.
Aiemann's last four wins have come via decision. He's has a pair of UFC knockouts over Aori Qileng and Drako Rodriguez, but those came in June 2023 and February 2021 respectively. I'd be surprised, bordering on shocked, if he finished O'Malley.
Zahabi has landed one takedown in his entire UFC run. I don't see any way in which he suddenly completely flips the script and starts spamming attempts against Sean. I just don't think it's in his arsenal.
I have enough respect for Zahabi's improvement in recent years that I can see him keeping this fairly close, but I think O'Malley ultimately wins a decision.
THE PICK: O'Malley
Heavyweight
Josh Hokit (9-0-0) v. Derrick Lewis (29-13-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Hokit ($9,000), Lewis ($6,000)
Vegas Odds: Hokit (-425), Lewis (+330)
Hokit catches a lot of grief for his antics, much of which is his own doing, but there's no doubt the guy can fight. His unanimous decision win over Curtis Blaydes in April was one of the best fights in the history of the heavyweight division. In a division which needs all the youthful talent it can find, Hokit, at age 28, remains one of the brightest prospects around.
Lewis turned 41 years old in February. He longed ago settled into his role as an attraction, earning massive paydays for big fights while not really impacting the state of the heavyweight division in the process. It sounds crazy, but Lewis' win/loss record doesn't really matter. Sure, he can't go on some crazy seven-fight losing streak like Tai Tuivasa has and still expect to remain relevant, but as long as he's hovering around the .500 mark, his drawing power will remain steady.
Hokit is an exceptional athlete, which isn't exactly breaking news considering the guy got some time in the NFL. He's eight years younger than Lewis, which is going to help in his quest to negate a whopping six-inch disadvantage in reach.
The thing that impressed me the most about Hokit's win over Blaydes was his toughness. There were no less than a half-dozen times it looked as if he was out on his feet and it was all over. But he kept coming and coming, and Curtis eventually wilted to the point Hokit was able to win a decision.
This is a different matchup entirely for a variety of reasons.
For starters, there's no way Lewis can keep the pace Blaydes did, so some back-and-forth slugfest, at least over a prolonged period of time, simply isn't going to happen.
Josh's cleanest and easiest path to victory is to attempt to wrestle Derrick, but knowing all of the eyeballs watching this event, I'm guessing he wants to put on a show.
If that's indeed the case, he better be careful. Hokit absorbed 174 significant strikes from Blaydes and lived to tell about it. I'd be shocked if he was able to eat even a fifth of that number from Lewis without crumbling.
Depending on how Hokit goes about things, I could see this being a shockingly easy win for him or getting very dicey. He's the pick because he's younger, a much better athlete, and based on what we've seen thus far, tremendously durable, but there's risk any time someone is facing Lewis.
THE PICK: Hokit
Lightweight
Mauricio Ruffy (13-2-0) v. Michael Chandler (23-10-0)
DK Salaries: Ruffy ($10,000), Chandler ($5,000)
Vegas Odds: Ruffy (-700), Chandler (+500)
Outside of a fight against Benoit Saint-Denis in enemy territory in Paris last September in which he uncharacteristically couldn't defend a takedown, Ruffy has been flawless throughout his UFC run. His win over Rafael Fiziev his last time out in January was his best performance to date. Four of his five company wins have come via knockout, and while he doesn't quite possess the same nuclear power as a guy like Topuria, it's not far off.
Let the record reflect that I'm a fan of Chandler and am happy he's getting this opportunity. He was strung along forever regarding a potential Conor McGregor fight which never happened, plus he was almost certainly past his prime upon joining the UFC from Bellator in early 2021. Mike just turned 40 years old in April and is 1-5 in his past six fights-- albeit in against awesome competition (Paddy Pimblett, Charles Oliveira x2, Dustin Poirier, Gaethje) -- so this sure feels like it's the company doing him a favor to get him on a major card and one more massive payday in his pocket.
The one thing I'm certain of here is that Chandler is going to show up in great shape ready to fight. He's better conditioned than 95 percent of the roster despite his advanced age.
That said, as has been the case throughout his entire career, Chandler has a tendency to get sucked into brawls. He's absorbing more damage than ever and that's a recipe for disaster against a guy that hits as hard as Ruffy.
Even if Mike comes out with a grappling-oriented game plan and let's say wins Round 1, I don't trust him to stick to the script for 15 minutes.
He's giving up three inches in height and four inches in reach to Ruffy and is at risk of getting nuked in an instant.
No one on this stage is going out there to win a boring three-round decision. These two are going to stand and throw down eventually and I find it nearly impossible to believe that's going to go well for Chandler when the time comes.
The price on Ruffy (the most expensive on the slate) is ridiculous when you take into account the competition level each man has faced, but between Chandler's advanced age, his struggles in recent years, and what, on paper, is another poor stylistic matchup for him, it has to be Ruffy all day. Mike is the underdog on the card I have the least interest in, which probably isn't surprising given he's also the cheapest.
THE PICK: Ruffy
A couple quick thoughts on the other two fights...
Middleweight
Bo Nickal (8-1-0) v. Kyle Daukaus (17-4-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Nickal ($8,800), Daukaus ($6,200)
Vegas Odds: Nickal (-345), Daukaus (+275)
I'm still not buying the Nickal surge. A head kick win over Rodolfo Vieira his last time out doesn't change much for me. The improvements of Daukaus upon his August 2025 company return appear legitimate, and he has 11 career wins via submission. Anyone facing a wrestler the level of Nickal is at risk of getting plastered to the mat for 15 minutes, but I think Kyle can threaten enough off his back to roll with him as a sizable underdog.
THE PICK: Daukaus
Lightweight
Diego Lopes (27-8-0) v. Steve Garcia (19-5-0)
DK Salaries: Lopes ($8,400), Garcia ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Lopes (-160), Garcia (+135)
This is an easy pick for me. I have no idea if Garcia is truly any good given he just turned 34 years old, and he certainly hasn't been facing anywhere near the level of competition Lopes has in recent years, but Steve has won seven fights in a row, including six via knockout, with four coming in Round 1 and the other two in Round 2. Lopes hits hard, but he's willing to engage in brawls. If Garcia's power is truly legitimate, I think Diego will provide openings for him to potentially pull the upset.
THE PICK: Garcia
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Captain Mode Scoring
1.) To build your lineup select 1 Captain and 5 additional fighters while staying under the $50,000 salary cap. Your Captain costs 1.5 times their standard salary but scores 1.5 times their standard fantasy points.
2.) Fighters earn points based on officially scored moves and a bonus for being declared the winner of their fight.
3.) Fighters earn points based on officially scored moves, including Significant Strikes (0.4 Pts), Control Time (0.03 Pts/sec), Takedowns (5 Pts), Reversals/Sweeps (5 Pts), and Knockdowns (10 Pts).
