UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC Vegas 118 - Muhammad vs. Bonfim
The UFC returns to the Apex for a solid fight card with consequential bouts. We'll take a look at each fight across three platforms. Picks this week include a kickboxer looking to stake his claim as a contender in the welterweight division and a hard-hitting zombie who always brings the heat. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Predictions to Consider on DraftKings
Fares Ziam ($9,100)
Ziam continues to sail in his second UFC campaign, riding his length, composure, and grappling ability to a six-fight win streak. Tom Nolan is an aggressive and powerful striker, but his frantic entries are likely to be met with hard counter shots and takedown attempts as he falls into clinch exchanges.
Brendan Allen ($8,800)
Edmen Shahbazyan is no longer an easy mark for any fighter who wants to take him down, but he hasn't beaten a wrestler like Allen, who will get in his face from the opening bell and chain his attempts together. Allen has been knocked out by punchers who pack less power than Shahbazyan, so "The Golden Boy" will have his opportunities, but Allen's smothering pressure should be enough to get the upper hand early.
Iwo Baraniewski ($8,800)
Baraniewski has shown how much he likes to brawl in his first two UFC fights, but it would surprise me if we didn't see his Judo skills against Junior Tafa, a powerful kickboxer who has surrendered at least one takedown in five of his last six fights. Tafa has shown very little awareness once the fight hits the ground, which makes a wrestling approach the path of least resistance.
Gabriel Bonfim ($7,900)
This fight is hard to call, as Belal Muhammad likes to pour on the pressure, and we have seen Bonfim tire in the past. However, I'm picking the athleticism and power of "Marretinha" to ultimately win the day. It's also worth noting that fighters like Leon Edwards and Jack Della Maddalena found success scrambling with Muhammad on the ground, and Bonfim has been incredibly hard to hold down.
Santiago Luna ($7,700)
Takedowns have always been at the core of Bryce Mitchell's strategy, but he became something of a panic wrestler against Said Nurmagomedov, landing just 13 significant strikes over 15 minutes. As a wrestler himself, Luna has a strong base, which should help him defend takedowns. I also expect his body work and power to make it harder for Mitchell to spam attempts.
Bruno Silva ($8,400)
Silva has become a forgotten man at flyweight, but his wrestling, toughness, and combination striking make him tough to deal with for any fighter in the division. Edgar Chairez is a crafty boxer, but "Puro Chicali" sports a meager 38 percent takedown defense rate and can be caught flatfooted at range.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
Predictions to Consider on PrizePicks
Ariane Carnelossi OVER 34.5 Significant Strikes, John Yannis UNDER 29.5 Significant Strikes, and Matt Schnell UNDER 20.5 Significant Strikes
Wrestling has been kryptonite to Carnelossi, who has notched just a 22 percent takedown defense rate in five UFC fights. The issue is that Ketlen Souza has rarely shown much interest in taking her opponents to the ground, averaging fewer than 0.5 takedowns per 15 minutes of cage time. Carnelossi is a tough brawler who can put volume on her opponents and should be able to breeze past this total if the fight stays in space.
This seems like a big total for Yannis, who stands straight up in the pocket looking to land fight-ending shots. Marcus McGhee has secured knockouts in eight of his 10 professional MMA wins, and has speed to match his appreciable power. Neither one of these guys is going to refuse a firefight, making this bout live to end in the first few exchanges.
Matt Schnell is too prone to being finished to call this line any other way, as six of his last seven losses have come via knockout or submission. Alessandro Costa hits incredibly hard and has finished his last four wins via KO/TKO. "Danger" carries his chin high in the pocket and looks to initiate exchanges, giving this fight a predictable outcome.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool
UFC Bets to Consider
Joanderson Brito Wins via KO/TKO (+320)
Jordan Leavitt is fun to watch as a grappler, but he is so slow and stationary that I don't expect him to survive in space with a big, athletic puncher like Brito for long. Brito does everything with power, so he is liable to run out of gas down the stretch, but I just don't see Leavitt weathering the storm here.
Priscila Cachoeira Wins via KO/TKO (+265)
The fight between Cahoeira and Chelsea Chandler is a battle of two messy brawlers, with "Zombie Girl" showing a bit more variety in her striking and ability to put punches together. The Brazilian has been taken down and controlled before, but we have seen a bit of evidence that she is working on staying upright, as her opponents have gone 0-for-6 on takedown attempts in her last three fights.
Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves Fight Does Not Go to Decision (-118)
Duben has never seen the scorecards in her seven professional MMA bouts, while Chaves has won four of her seven fights by KO/TKO. These numbers alone should lend more juice to this line, but we can take advantage of the perception that women don't often finish fights. Duben is a heavy-handed wrestle-boxer, while Chaves is a powerful Thai Striker with a three-inch reach advantage. This should create fireworks when Duben attempts to close the distance.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Vegas 118. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section
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