UFC Winnipeg DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
See the top DraftKings UFC picks and DFS strategy for UFC Winnipeg. Build winning MMA lineups with our preview, analysis & fight breakdowns.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Welterweight
Gilbert Burns (22-9-0) v. Mike Malott (13-2-1)
DK Salaries: Burns ($6,900), Malott ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Burns (+245), Malott (-305)
Set to turn 40 years old in July, Burns has been trending in the wrong direction for the better part of the last three-plus years. The fact that he is getting another main event fight despite entering on a four-fight losing streak is remarkable. To be fair, those four setbacks came against Michael Morales, Sean Brady, Jack Della Maddalena, and Belal Muhammad, but nothing happened in any of those fights that would lead you to believe Burns was turning a corner or potentially getting back on track. This is, without a doubt, his final opportunity to show something.
Malott joined the UFC roster in April 2022 following a 39-second submission win on Dana White's Contender Series the prior October. He's 6-1 with the company, with two knockout wins and two submission wins on his ledger. His lone setback came against Neil Magny in January 2024 in a fight in which Malott couldn't have been more dominant before gassing and getting choked out with 15 seconds left. Malott is 34, so he's certainly too old to be called a prospect, but I could see him ultimately settling in towards the back-half of the top 10 at 170 pounds.
Gilbert's biggest edge in this fight would seem to be his experience. In addition to the four guys I mentioned above, he's been in the octagon with the likes of Khamzat Chimaev, Kamaru Usman, Stephen Thompson, and Dan Hooker. Malott's lone notable win was against Kevin Holland, and that was his last time out. Before that, his best victory with the company came against Charles Radtke.
Burns remains a wizard on the mat, and that is never going to go away, but he simply hasn't been able to put himself in a position to win a fight of late, and I see that continuing. He's never been a good striker. He gets hit far too much and lacks the requisite power to earn respect from his opposition. His last knockout win came against Demian Maia back in March 2020.
While Gilbert averages 2.12 takedowns per 15 minutes, he's by no means a technical wrestler. He's tremendously strong, particularly in the upper body, and that has helped him earn takedowns in the past, even though his entries are often far from perfect.
Malott is better on the mat than on the feet, but he's primarily a generalist. He does everything reasonably well, and nothing great. He's a better technical striker than Burns and has more power, but that's largely due to the opponent he's facing here. I wouldn't give Malott an edge in those categories against many welterweights currently ranked in the top 10.
Malott figures to have the crowd behind him, being a Canadian, even though his hometown of Burlington, Ontario, is roughly 2,000 miles from Winnipeg.
The pick here comes down to whether or not you think Burns is totally washed. The value is entirely on his side. I see minimal upside in rolling with Malott at $9,300 even in the best of circumstances.
Would I be shocked if he just rolled through Burns because Gilbert has nothing left to offer at this level? Not really, but it's just too high a price tag for me to go that route.
THE PICK: Burns
Co-Main Event - Bantamweight
Kyler Phillips (12-4-0) v. Charles Jourdain (17-8-1)
DK Salaries: Phillips ($7,500), Jourdain ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Phillips (+130), Jourdain (-155)
Phillips started his UFC run with wins in six of his first seven fights, highlighted by a unanimous decision win over Yadong Song in March 2021. It's been downhill since, as Kyler has suffered back-to-back unanimous decision defeats to Vinicius Oliveira and Rob Font. Phillips is still just 30 years old and gets elite training every single day with the crew at the MMA Lab in Arizona, so I by no means want to write him off, but he needs a rebound performance here against a tough customer in Jourdain.
Charles was largely spinning his wheels at featherweight, going 2-4 over a six-fight stretch from July 2022 to June 2024. It was at that time he decided to make the move down to bantamweight, and he has responded with back-to-back submission wins over Victor Henry and Davey Grant. The Grant victory in particular is one I rate highly. Jourdain has seemingly had no issues dropping down to 135 pounds despite being fairly large for the division at 5-foot-9, and I expect him to remain there for the foreseeable future.
Phillips has an intriguing all-around skill set. He averages 5.04 significant strikes landed per minute, and there have been fights in the past in which he has drowned his opposition with volume on the feet. His March 2024 win over Pedro Munhoz, in which he posted 114 significant strikes, is a perfect example.
On the flip side, he's proven to be a capable wrestler on more than one occasion. He's landed multiple takedowns in six of his nine UFC fights. I'm interested in seeing what path he chooses to take against Jourdain, a notoriously aggressive opponent who likes to work from in tight and bully his opposition.
Jourdain is an underrated athlete, and he's super aggressive. His movements inside the octagon are fluid, and we've seen countless opponents have issues with the pressure he applies.
His stand-up defense is questionable at times, but this is a guy who's been in a ton of brawls throughout his pro career and to date he's been knocked out just a single time. His durability is not an issue.
I am worried Phillips is going to be able to get his wrestling game going, but Jourdain always works to get back to his feet.
Unlike the main event, the price tags seem correct here. I expect a close, competitive bout throughout. Give me Jourdain in a tight decision.
THE PICK: Jourdain
Lightweight
Mandel Nallo (14-3-0, 1NC) v. Jai Herbert (13-6-1)
DK Salaries: Nallo ($8,800), Herbert ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Nallo (-180), Herbert (+150)
Nallo is an interesting case. He'll be 37 years of age in late July, so he's about the furthest thing from a "prospect" you will ever see, but he was still forced to go the Contender Series route, and to his credit, knocked out Samuel Silva in a shade over four minutes last September. Nando was a member of the Bellator roster from December 2017 to March 2023, going 4-3 (1NC) with the promotion. He's a Vancouver native, so he's getting his shot on the main roster here in what is essentially a home game, although the company has not given him an easy draw.
Herbert's career UFC record is 3-5-1, though he has more ability than those numbers would lead you to believe. He's been in there against the likes of Ilia Topuria, Chris Padilla, Fares Ziam, L'udovit Klein, and Renato Moicano. It hasn't been an easy run by any stretch of the imagination. Set to turn 38 years old in about a month, this may be his final chance to show the UFC he has some staying power.
Nallo has obviously been around for a while and fought for what was probably the second biggest promotion in the world in Bellator at the time he was with them, but he's still never gone up against anyone of note. Herbert laps him in terms of the level of competition faced.
Herbert is primarily a point striker at this stage of his career. He has three career losses via knockout, but just one in the last five years, and that came against Topuria, so I disregard it entirely. Offensively, he has no ground game to speak of and is typically lower volume than I prefer.
Each of Jai's last five fights has gone to a decision, and he has landed more than 49 significant strikes just once over that span. That is nowhere near enough output when you take into account that he brings virtually no grappling to the table.
I expect Nallo to have an edge on the mat if he chooses to go that route. He has six career wins via submission, and he trains at a Tristar gym that is traditionally very good when it comes to game planning for opposition. Engaging Herbert in a strike-for-strike brawl isn't the way to go about things, even if he is low volume.
Herbert is a live underdog, but it's hard to back him given his mediocre striking totals. He's going to have to do something we haven't seen from him very often to win a decision, and that, combined with the mat edge, makes me lean in Nallo's direction.
THE PICK: Nallo
Women's Flyweight
Jasmine Jasudavicius (14-4-0) v. Karine Silva (19-6-0)
DK Salaries: Jasudavicius ($9,200), Silva ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Jasudavicius (-310), Silva (+250)
A member of the UFC roster for four-plus years now, Jasudavicius turned 37 years old in March. She won five bouts in a row from January 2024 to May 2025, earning her a massive fight against Manon Fiorot last October. She was knocked out in 74 seconds that evening, all but cementing the fact that there is a gap between her and the top girls at 125 pounds. Jasmine is gritty and a strong grappler, but she's obviously getting up there in age, and while her striking has improved, it's by no means a strength. My guess is we've already seen the best she has to offer inside the octagon.
Silva began her UFC run with four straight wins, including three via submission. She's found things more difficult of late, losing two of her last three fights. She was wildly inconsistent prior to her arrival in the company, and for the most part, that has carried over. A win over Jasudavicius would be by far her most notable to date.
This is a battle between two women who are highly reliant on takedowns for success. Jasudavicius averages 2.59 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Silva is at 2.3
The main difference between the two is that Jasmine defends the takedown at a reasonable 75 percent clip, while Silva is at a woeful 21 percent.
I think there's a real chance Jasudavicius just overwhelms Karine with physicality. She is likely going to remain aggressive, as that's the only way she knows how to fight.
Yet the main reason I'm going with Jasmine is her activity from top position. While she's not a strong striker, she works to do damage when she has her opponent in a dominant position.
Silva, on the other hand, seems content to hang out and rack up control time. Karine landed a pair of takedowns on Maycee Barber her last time out and finished with 21 significant strikes landed. Her fight before that? One successful takedown and 26 significant strikes landed. In her April 2024 win over Ariane da Silva, a whopping five successful takedowns and 27 significant strikes landed.
This event is taking place in an arena with a hot crowd, not the UFC Apex. Racking up a boatload of boring control time isn't the path to a decision win.
THE PICK: Jasudavicius
Other Bouts
Lightweight
Thiago Moises (19-9-0) v. Gauge Young (10-3-0)
DK Salaries: Moises ($7,800), Young ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Moises (+110), Young (-130)
THE PICK: Young
Featherweight
Dennis Buzukja (12-5-0) v. Marcio Barbosa (17-2-0)
DK Salaries: Buzukja ($6,800), Barbosa ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Buzukja (+370), Barbosa (-485)
THE PICK: Barbosa
Middleweight
Julien Leblanc (10-2-0) v. Robert Valentin (11-6-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Leblanc ($7,900), Valentin ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Leblanc (+115), Valentin (-135)
THE PICK: Leblanc
Heavyweight
Tanner Boser (22-10-1) v. Gokhan Saricam (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Boser ($7,700), Saricam ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Boser (+130), Saricam (-155)
THE PICK: Boser
Women's Bantamweight
Melissa Croden (7-3-0) v. Daria Zhelezniakova (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Croden ($8,600), Zhelezniakova ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Croden (-155), Zhelezniakova (+130)
THE PICK: Croden
Flyweight
Mitch Raposo (10-3-0) v. Allan Nascimento (22-6-0)
DK Salaries: Raposo ($7,200), Nascimento ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Raposo (+160), Nascimento (-190)
THE PICK: Nascimento
Women's Flyweight
JJ Aldrich (14-7-0) v. Jamey-Lyn Horth (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Aldrich ($7,300), Horth ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Aldrich (+135), Horth (-165)
THE PICK: Aldrich
Bantamweight
John Castaneda (21-8-0) v. Mark Vologdin (12-4-1)
DK Salaries: Castaneda ($8,000), Vologdin ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Castaneda (-125), Vologdin (+105)
THE PICK: Castaneda
Bantamweight
Jamie Siraj (14-3-0) v. John Yannis (9-4-0)
DK Salaries: Siraj ($9,100), Yannis ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Siraj (-270), Yannis (+220)
THE PICK: Siraj
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
