Kyle Schwarber

Schwarber continues his Adam Dunn impresssion with his three true outcome lines and poor batting averages on a near annual basis. The .266 average from 2021 is rather reminiscent of Dunn's batting average run in 2009-2010 before he became what Schwarber is doing here in recent seasons. Schwarber may be the most atypical leadoff hitter in baseball with his sub .200 batting average and body type, yet his OBP skills make him a solid fit for the job. Schwarber had amazing production in runs, RBIs, and homers, but complete lack of batting average and steals limits his ceiling as a fantasy producer. Thankfully, he retains his outfield eligibility on draft day since he was forced to play in the outfield while Harper monopolized the DH position most of the season. 2024 should be more of the same for Schwarber as the surrounding cast remains consistent and his three true outcome skills are unlikely to change anytime soon. Perhaps resuming full-time DH will refresh his legs for a few steals.

Schwarber is sort of like the modern-day Adam Dunn in that he's a three-true-outcomes player who is perennially underrated because of his low batting average. He's also not a good defender. With 46 home runs last season, Schwarber led the National League, finishing second in baseball behind only Aaron Judge. Surprisingly, Schwarber added a new element to his game in his first season with the Phillies in the form of stolen bases. He was 10-for-11 on the basepaths after going 4-for-8 over the prior three seasons, so it would seem one of the Philadelphia coaches got through to him on how to read opposing pitchers. Now entering his age-30 season, Schwarber should be celebrated for what he is. His power contributions more than make up for the low average and the steals are just a cherry on top.

Schwarber is a power-only bat, and sometimes that's all a fantasy team needs. He consistently hits 30 or more home runs with a walk rate over 10%. Those skills are bankable. He provides no stolen bases (four total in his last three seasons) with a batting average that bounces around from a complete drag to somewhat OK (.211 to .238 to .250 to .188 to .266). The low batting average is from mainly hitting flyballs, being shifted as a pull hitter and having square wheels. He's also struggled with an extreme platoon split, with a career .880 OPS against righties and just .684 OPS against lefties. He just can't generate any power (.146 ISO) against lefties. Without knowing his exact role, he might end up in a platoon or could have over 600 plate appearances. In leagues that require 10 or fewer games to qualify at a position, he is qualified at first base.

Schwarber continued to hit the ball out of the park in 2020, but his overall numbers took a tumble. The slugger suffered from some bad luck during the condensed slate, as his .219 BABIP came in well below his career .267 mark. Schwarber's SLG fell from .531 in 2019 to .393 last year, with only six doubles in 59 games, despite 95th percentile exit velocity. The 27-year-old has always been a bit of a slow starter, with his career OPS lowest in April and May, and in 2020 he did not have time to heat up. The Cubs should have taken advantage of the DH more with Schwarber as his defense was so poor in 48 starts in left field that it washed away most of his offensive contributions. While Chicago did not bring him back, there should still be plenty of suitors for Schwarber's bat in 2021. He figures to get back near an .800 OPS and 30 home runs, with plenty of strikeouts and a sub-.250 batting average mixed in.

Players who saw their 2019 homer total built off opposite-field home runs will suffer if the ball is dejuiced this season. Schwarber led all players with 15 homers to the opposite field in 2019, so that is a concern for the big bat. Last season marked the second time in three years Schwarber hit 30 homers, but 2019 was the first time he was truly an everyday player and fulfilled the run production expectations that have followed him for the past few seasons. Schwarber's Statcast metrics are littered with spots in the 90th percentile or above, highlighted by an average exit velocity in the 97th percentile and a hard-hit rate in the 99th percentile. Those numbers should help you feel better about a drop in homers with a new baseball potentially in play. Strikeout rate improving, batting average improving...good signs entering his age-27 season.

Most major-league hitters would be thrilled to smack 72 homers before their 26th birthday, especially after missing an entire season due to injury. However, expectations for Schwarber are higher than most, so thus far, he's deemed a disappointment. Two hurdles remain before he loses the label. First, Schwarber needs to make more contact, even in this era of increasing strikeouts. More importantly, the slugger needs to figure out how to handle southpaws better or he'll be saddled with platoon playing time, aiding his average but limiting overall production. In his favor: he's still young and possesses a good eye, posting a career 14% walk rate. In addition, his outfield defense is improving, so the gains versus lefties don't need to be that major, just better than the 85 wRC+ posted in 2018. Even with his faults, Schwarber is a threat to hit 30 long balls with a solid OBP. In leagues using average, be sure to have a buffer.

While Schwarber hit 30 home runs last season, his campaign has to be categorized as a major disappointment. He was excellent in the 2016 World Series after missing almost the entire year with a torn ligament in his knee, but failed to build on that momentum, batting just .171 over the first two and a half months of the season. Those prolonged struggles earned Schwarber a trip to the minors, and though the reset seemed to be beneficial, the swing and miss was still a problem after his return, with Schwarber striking out in one-third of his plate appearances the rest of the way. His struggles against left-handed pitching continued -- Schwarber now has a .159/.270/.312 career line against southpaws -- but to his credit Schwarber's defense in left field was better than most expected. The soon-to-be 25-year-old will have some appeal at a reduced cost given his power, but he's a batting-average liability, and his confinement to a platoon role means his run and RBI totals will continue to lag behind his everyday counterparts.

An outfield collision with Dexter Fowler in his second game of the season resulted in a torn ACL and MCL for Schwarber. Much to everyone's surprise, Schwarber was cleared to DH in the World Series, and it was like he'd never been away. Schwarber went 7-for-17 in the Fall Classic with three walks to four strikeouts, even adding a stolen base for good measure in Game 7. The fact that he was able to jump right back in against high-level pitching after nearly seven months away (and only a couple games in the Arizona Fall League to shake the rust) speaks to Schwarber's immense talent at the plate. Unfortunately, he lost catcher eligibility and it's uncertain how often he'll man the backstop in 2017. Chances are, he will play primarily in the outfield coming off such a serious knee injury, and with the emergence of Willson Contreras. Regardless, Schwarber remains a highly appealing option as he's among the best young hitters in the game.

All Schwarber does is hit, and the Cubs had no choice but to promote him last year when it appeared that no minor league level could hold him. His .246 batting average was a bit disappointing, but he made up for it with 16 home runs and 36 walks in limited regular-season action and five more homers in the postseason. Even better, though he moved to the outfield he still managed to catch 21 games in the majors, earning him valuable multi-position eligibility. It's doubtful that he can be an everyday catcher, but it's possible he could play enough behind the plate to continue to stay eligible there in the coming years. How does a catcher-eligible player who hits 25 home runs and bats .290 sound?

The Cubs drafted Schwarber with the fourth pick in the 2014 draft and he made an immediate impression in his three-level stint, hitting a combined 18 home runs in 262 at-bats with an on-base percentage north of .400. Though he played a lot of outfield in his first year as a pro, he's expected to be a full-time catcher in 2015, either at High-A Myrtle Beach or Double-A Tennessee. If he can prove himself there, he'll be on the fast track to Chicago, where he won't have many catchers to beat out.