DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: Valero Texas Open Cash and GPP Strategy

VALERO TEXAS OPEN

Purse: $9.8M
Winner's Share: $1.764M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: San Antonio, Texas
Course: TPC San Antonio (The Oaks Course)
Yardage: 7,438
Par: 72
2025 champion: Brian Harman

Tournament Preview

It's a week before the Masters and the field is 99.9 percent set. Maybe 100 percent. The only way anyone can now get into the first major of the season is to win this week's Valero Texas Open. It's not impossible, as J.J. Spaun and Akshay Bhatia will tell you. They both did it in the past four years.

There are 22 golfers teeing it up this week who also have been, as they say, invited to Augusta National.  While that leaves 110 other golfers in this field of 132, there's still a strong likelihood the winner comes from the Masters 22, among them Tommy Fleetwood, Ludvig Aberg, Russell Henley, Hideki Matsuyama and the biggest name this week down around San Antone, the 2021 Valero winner, Texas native son Jordan Spieth.

That list is courtesy the PGA Tour. (Note: Daniel Berger and Collin Morikawa withdrew on Tuesday morning)

Among the more high profile names not yet in the Masters field and playing this week are Rickie Fowler, Tiny Finau, Michael Thorbjornsen and Billy Horschel.

The Texas Open has had quite a history. It began way back in 1922 and, as you'll recall, Bob McDonald edged Cyril Walker by a stroke to pocket a cool 15-hundred bucks. This is the seventh oldest pro tournament in the world, behind only three majors --the Open Championship, U.S. Open and PGA Championship -- plus the South African, Canadian and Western (now the BMW Championship) Opens. The Valero is the only one of the seven to be played in the same city the entire time. San Antonio is not known as a golf town but, c'mon, that is seriously impressive.

The tournament has been around so long that Walter Hagen once won it. So has Byron Nelson, Ben Hogan and Sam Snead. And Arnold Palmer -- three times. It had been moved around a great deal before being given the coveted slot before the Masters seven years ago. (To be honest, that would not have happened without Valero Energy Corporation, the title sponsor since 2002, re-upping for 10 years through 2028.) It's been played in winter, spring, summer and fall. That's right -- January, February, March, April, May, September, October and even November.

The Oaks Course is, ahem, a 2010 Greg Norman design with consulting by Sergio Garcia. There's also another course at TPC San Antonio built by Pete Dye, so it's interesting that Norman's is the championship 18. The course is long and has some very long holes, including two 600-yarders and another par-5 at 591. There are five par-4s at about 450-plus. Two of the par-3s exceed 200 yards, one of them a mammoth 241. However, another par-3, the 213-yard 3rd hole, was reduced a few years ago to 171 yards on the scorecard. No matter, this course still sounds like it would suit Norman's mad bombing ways just fine back in his hey day.

There are towering oak trees that line the narrow fairways (about 25-30 yards wide), water on three holes and some of the 64 bunkers are enormous, including two bigger than many PGA Tour greens. There is a lot of native land that can lead to very crooked numbers. Kevin Na famously found a native area on the par-4, 474-yard 9th hole in 2011, and he eventually walked off with a 16.

Despite all those pitfalls, the week could very well tip on the wind. More on the weather in a moment.

The Oaks features some of the toughest greens to hit in regulation, even though they are medium-sized at an average of 6,400 square feet. Ball striking is incredibly important this week, with Exhibits A and B being Corey Conners in 2019 and 2023, winning the only two tournaments he's won on the PGA Tour.

The poa-overseed putting surfaces run a so-so 11 on the Stimpmeter, but many have undulations and multiple levels leading to run-offs.

After cutting the rough a bit in 2019, it's now back at three inches. And thus the Oaks has been among the 15 hardest courses on Tour the past three years. Brian Harman won at a mere 9-under a year ago, and that was by three shots over Ryan Gerard.

As for the weather, it will be very hot, with highs in the upper 80s all week. Showers are in the forecast the first two days, especially Thursday. Right now it says the wind will be single-digit mph all week, but we'll believe that when we see it.

Key Stats to Winning at TPC San Antonio

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Driving accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in regulation/Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Par-3 scoring 200-225 yards
• Par-4 scoring 450-500 yards
• Par-5 scoring 550-600 yards

Past Champions

2025 - Brian Harman
2024 - Akshay Bhatia
2023 - Corey Conners
2022 - J.J. Spaun
2021 - Jordan Spieth
2020 - Tournament canceled
2019 - Corey Conners
2018 - Andrew Landry
2017 - Kevin Chappell
2016 - Charley Hoffman

Champion's Profile

Last year, Harman ranked second in the field in SG: Approach, fifth in Tee-to-Green and sixth in Putting. You combine those three metrics like that and you're gonna win 95 percent of the tournaments you enter.

Two years ago, the winning score ballooned to 20-under, with Bhatia and Denny McCarthy going to a playoff.

If there ever were proof that there's more than one way to win a golf tournament, look no further. Bhatia ranked eighth in driving distance to McCarthy's 73rd, first in greens in regulation vs. 34th, sixth in SG: Off-the-Tee vs. 42nd and 24th in SG: Putting vs. third. Yes, McCarthy putted great, as he usually does.

There were key similarities, however: Bhatia ranked first in SG: Approach and Tee-to-Green and second in Around-the-Green. McCarthy was seventh, second and first.

The top four guys on the leaderboard ranked first, second, third and seventh in SG: Approach and first, second, fifth and sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green.

In other words, strong ball-striking/tee-to-green games is what to focus on most.

The over/under on the winning score on golfodds.com was set at 271.5 -- 16.5 under par. 

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

$10,000 and up

Tommy Fleetwood - $10,500 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1425) 
Fleetwood is cresting at the right time for the Masters. He has finished in the top-8 in three of his past four starts, all in big events. He is ranked fifth on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green and 11th in driving accuracy. Fleetwood is back in San Antonio for the third straight year, so he obviously likes to play the week before a major, or at least this major. He managed only a tie for 62nd last year but was T7 in 2024.

$9,000-$9,900

Russell Henley - $9,800 (+1800) 
Henley has been his ever-steady self over the first three months of the season. He's finished top-20 in six of his seven starts, with a pair of top-10s. The one thing he hasn't done is contend for a title, as T6 at Bay Hill is his best showing. Two years ago here, Henley tied for fourth. He's ranked 31st in SG: Approach, 32nd in Tee-to-Green and 14th in Putting. Not only is that great for this week, but next week, too.

Hideki Matsuyama - $9,100 (+2150) 
Matsuyama follows the mold of ball-strikers we are focusing on this week. He tied for 15th here in 2023 and for seventh in 2024. His 2026 season is going well. Matsuyama opened T13-T11-P2-T8 and has not missed a cut in seven starts. He's ranked top-20 on Tour in both SG: Approach and Tee-to-Green. He's also ranked fifth in SG: Around-the-Green. That might not be the most critical stat this week, but it sure will be important next week.

$8,000-$8,900

Michael Thorbjornsen - $8,900 (+2800) 
Thorbjornsen was so close to the Masters his past two starts. He was in the final pairing on Sunday at THE PLAYERS and last week was in contention at Houston. He was done in both times by poor Sundays, and thus stalled at No. 54 OWGR when he needed to get into the top-50. Now, he'll need a win this week. If he can figure out how to have a better Sunday, he very well could do it.

J.J. Spaun - $8,600 (+3800) 
Hear us out on this one. Spaun has missed 4 of 7 cuts this season and 2 of his past 3. But in the past month he also had a top-25 at THE PLAYERS and has seen his approach play improve significantly. A month ago, Spaun was ranked outside the top 100 in SG: Approach but now he's up to 38th. That's more like the Spaun from 2025, even though his putting still needs a lot of work. He was the 2022 winner here.

Denny McCarthy - $8,200 (+5600)
McCarthy, now 33 and on the Tour since 2017, is still looking for his first win. He looked like he would get it here two years ago, only to have it agonizingly wrested from him by Akshay Bhatia in a playoff. He has three other top-20s in this tournament. McCarthy has made 7 of 9 cuts in 2026 and is coming off his best showing of the season, a tie for 12th at the Houston Open.

$7,000-$7,900

Thorbjorn Olesen - $7,900 (+5700) 
A week ago, Olesen would have elicited a different response from us. The 36-year-old Dane missed 4 of 5 cuts to open the season. But then last week, he tied for 14th, shooting four rounds of 68 or better. Combine that with his past two showings in San Antonio, 14th two years ago and fifth last year, and we appear to have a Texas-loving Scandinavian. Besides, Olesen has been an excellent approach player this season, ranked 17th on Tour.

Haotong Li - $7,100 (+8400) 
Li's strong start to his rookie season on the PGA Tour -- T8 at the Amex and T11 at the Farmers -- has stalled in a big way. He's missed 4 of 5 cuts since then. But we are encouraged by some of his stats, specifically his approach play, and think this course will help turns things around for him. Li is ranked 49th on Tour in SG: Approach, plus 34th in Tee-to-Green and 27th in Off-the-Tee. He's ranked 55th in -- get this -- SG: Total.

Adrien Dumont de Chassart - $7,100 (+10500) 
The former collegiate star at Illinois appears much more comfortable in his second PGA Tour season at age 26 -- and not just because the Illini are in the Final Four. Dumont de Chassart has made 6 of 8 cuts with four top-25s and two near-misses at T26. He tied for 12th last week at Houston. He is ranked top-85 in every strokes-gained metric, signaling a strong all-around game.

Max Homa - $7,000 (+10500) 
Homa has had good weeks and bad weeks, a sign of a player struggling to regain his game. But approach play is the best part of his game right now, ranked 43rd on the season. And Homa has done a good job reining in his wayward driver. He has made 5 of 7 cuts this season, with a best of T13 at the Cognizant plus a T32 at THE PLAYERS.

$6,000-$6,900

David Ford - $6,700 (+18000) 
The 23-year-old North Carolina alum has been taking steps forward this season, and steps back. It's consistent with a young player striving for, um, consistency. Ford has made 5 of 8 cuts. He has top-20s at the Amex and Puerto Rico. Importantly, he's ranked top-50 on Tour in SG: Approach, Off-the-Tee, Tee-to-Green, greens in regulation and driving accuracy. Really, that's pretty darn good. So maybe you're thinking his putting sucks? No, it's average, ranking 105th on Tour.

Matthieu Pavon - $6,500 (+22500) 
Pavon is nothing like so many of the other guys we picked this week. His approach numbers are unsightly. A lot of his stats are. One that isn't is his putting. The Frenchman is ranked fourth on Tour in SG: Putting. And that has been carrying him to weekend after weekend this season. Pavon has made 7 of 9 cuts -- one of the two misses was at THE PLAYERS -- with a pair of top-20s, including T11 at the Valspar a couple of weeks back. He's currently 72nd in the FedEx Cup point standings -- just two spots out of playoff position. You don't often see that down here in the mid-$6,000s. 

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