Weekly Fantasy Golf Preview: the Memorial Tournament

The Memorial Tournament

Muirfield Village Golf Club
Dublin, OH

The PGA Tour heads to Dublin, OH for another edition of the Memorial Tournament.

Fantasy golf, there's nothing quite like it. If you read this article prior to the Charles Schwab Challenge, or if you read the weekly OAD article on this website, you know that I was not very high on Russell Henley going into this past week. As you probably know, Henley was the winner of the Charles Schwab Challenge. That however, is fantasy golf. You think you know what's going to happen and it's completely flipped on you.

It feels like I go over this every year, because inevitably, there is a moment where I say to myself, "how could I pick against the winner?" The answer of course, is golf. It's not just that the sport itself can be maddening, but we're also dealing with a lack of information. We have a few tools at our disposal, but when it comes down to it, we're essentially trying to get into the head of each golfer. Other sports have injury reports and matchup history that we can use, heck having a defense on the other side of the ball helps us figure some things out, but golf it's just one man or woman, against the course. Yeah, the other players are involved as well, but unless we're talking about intimidation, there's nothing that any golfer can do to affect another player. It's why fantasy golf can be so difficult. We look at form, which may or may not carry over to a new course and we look at course history, which may or may not matter, because, what was his form when he played poorly in previous years or great in others?

With that said, it's not a total crapshoot. Course history becomes relevant the more times a golfer plays a course and after a few years on the PGA Tour, we generally have a good feel for the guys that are streaky and can carry a good performance over to the following week. Then again, sometimes you have a golfer win after missing his previous four cuts. Or the opposite, a golfer than has a streak of five top-10s, and he misses the cut in his next start.

All of this to say that, it's not impossible to pick winners, but it's nearly impossible to get though an entire season without a few missteps. I've stated since the start of this venture, way back in the year 2000, that my fades would always have value. By that I mean, I'm never going to fade someone that the public would never think about using, there's no value in that. With that in mind, I'm going to fade some winners from time to time, because for the most part, my fades are within the top-10 players on the odds chart every week. This past week was a big swing and a miss, but hopefully that's my one miss for this season and if you're keeping track at home, and I already used up my one miss, then let's just keep that to yourself.

Okay, onto this week, we're back in signature event land, which is always nice. We've also got a ton of course history, which is even better.

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FAVORITES

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 11:30 AM ET Wednesday.

Scottie Scheffler (+310) 

No shock here that Scheffler is a huge favorite once again. He hasn't won since early in the season, but he's been in the mix several times since then. This week is a bit different as well as he's won this event the past two years. He also finished T3 in the two starts prior to those two wins, so it's safe to say that he has a feel for this course. The question of course is, can he finish this week? It's strange that we're asking this question about the best golfer in the world, but he's had a problem either starting or finishing this season. If you think he might start slow, then perhaps wait until the action starts this week and grab some better odds. Personally, I think this could be a wire-to-wire type of week for Scheffler.

Rory McIlroy (12-1)

This will be McIlroy's 14th start at this event and while he has a bunch of top-20s, he's never finished inside the top-3 here. That's a lot of starts to not have a top-3. He does have a few top-5s however, so it's not like he hasn't played well here, but he's definitely lacking the high-end finishes. I have to wonder if McIlroy will be even more focused on the majors going forward now that he's got another one under his belt. McIlroy has just one top-10 outside the majors this season, and while he doesn't have a lot of starts outside the majors, that number is still a bit jarring. Considering his track record here and the fact that the next major is just a couple weeks away, I'd stay away from a win bet this week.

Ludvig Aberg (15-1)

A bit of a surprise to see Aberg in the third spot this week instead of Cameron Young, but apparently if you take a couple weeks off, your odds slip. Anyhow, there's no doubt that Aberg has played well lately, but his issue this season, and for most of the past 2 ½ seasons is that he hasn't been able to find the winner's circle. Aberg has only one win since November of 2023, and while his overall production has been great, production doesn't matter much when you're holding a win ticket. The Swede's track record here is limited, asvhe has only two starts on this course. He'll probably be in the mix this week, but I don't see a win.  

Visit our golf betting section for the latest PGA odds and finishing props from multiple sportsbooks.

THE NEXT TIER

Matt Fitzpatrick (22-1)

Fitzpatrick was on an extreme heater in March and April, winning the Valspar, the RBC Heritage and the Zurich Classic and while he cooled a bit in May, he did score a top-15 finish at the PGA Championship. Fitzpatrick is currently 3rd in the FedEx standings, which gives you a better idea of how well he's played this season. This is a pivotal stretch for Fitzpatrick however as he has a chance to go from top-tier to elite level is he can pull off another win either at a signature event or a major. Obviously he would prefer the major, but you can only play one event at a time, and the Memorial is up next. His track record here is pretty solid, but he's been hit or miss, with three top-10s in seven starts and four finishes outside the top-30.  

Si Woo Kim (22-1)

Kim isn't a name that you think about often at signature events, but he's fared well at a few of them this season. Though he's yet to win this year, he ranks 5th on the FedExCup list, which shows how consistent he's been this season. Kim did struggle to finish off what should have been a win a couple weeks ago at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, and that could be a concern as he hasn't won on the PGA Tour since 2023, but he's continuing to give himself a chance, which will eventually lead him back to the winner's circle. His track record here is pretty good, he's finished inside the top-20 in five of his past six starts at this event, including a solo-4th in 2023.

Patrick Cantlay (33-1)

Solid, but not spectacular is probably the best way to describe Cantlay's play this season. When compared to previous years though, perhaps disappointing is a better descriptor. Why is he an win option this week then? Well, a couple reasons. First, his form looks pretty good entering the week. He's finished inside the top-12 in four of his past five starts and the only non top-12 came at the PGA Championship, which, as we all know, he and everyone else gets a pass for because majors are just different. Second, his track record at this event is really strong. He hasn't played his best here over the past three years, but prior to that he posted two wins and two additional top-5s.    

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LONG SHOTS

J.J. Spaun (35-1)            

Spaun is one of the more interesting players on the PGA Tour, at least, his career arc has been one of the more interesting ones. For the first five seasons on the PGA Tour, he was either just inside the top-100 or well outside of it. He picked up his first win in 2022 but he didn't exactly take off after that. His real breakthrough came this past year when he won the U.S. Open and finished 3rd in the FedExCup standings. He's already picked up a win this season and he's landed in the top-6 in two of his past three starts. His track record here isn't great, but it seems like he's starting to peak, just ahead of the U.S. Open.   

Sepp Straka (60-1)        

Straka checks a couple boxes as a longshot this week, the first of which is the proven ability to beat the best players on the PGA Tour, which he did a year ago at the Truist Championship. The second is a solid track record at the event and Straka has that as well with top-5s in his past two starts here. Straka had a poor May, but he's not too far removed from some solid outings. Straka posted a top-5 at the Miami Championship and a runner-up at Pebble Beach in February, both signature events. 

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Scottie Scheffler – If you've still got him, this is undoubtedly the best time to use him. Yes, he's going to be favored at every other spot on the schedule, but he won't be the two-time defending champion at any of those events. There have been other spots where it looked like he was a cinch to win, but this one looks as good, if not better than any of those spots. I have a feeling Scheffler is going to go off in the 2nd half of the season and it starts this week.   

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Patrick Cantlay – For those looking to save the big guns for later in the season, Cantlay is your man this week. I think he'll be somewhat popular as his track record is bound to garner some attention, but I've noticed that the OAD players have steered clear of Cantlay for the most part this season, so I don't expect him to be super popular. Cantlay hasn't had the high-end finishes this season that he's had in previous seasons, but it looks like he's close enough that that a return to Muirfield might be all he needs.   

Lightly-Chosen Pick: J.J. Spaun – Though this is Spaun's time of year and he's rounding into form, I don't think many OAD players will be on Spaun this week because of his track record, which includes four missed cuts in five tries. I know, it's hard to overlook, but remember that in three of those starts, he was nowhere near the player that he is now. He also has one thing that many in the field don't – the knowledge that he's beaten all of these guys at a bigger event than this.     

Buyer Beware: Rory McIlroy – Not exactly a safe pick here, but I honestly feel that McIlroy is going to struggle in the events surrounding the majors going forward because I think he's so locked into the majors now that everything else is secondary. His track record at this event is pretty good, he's only missed two cuts in 13 starts and he had five top-10s, but he hasn't finished inside the top-5 here since 2016. McIlroy could easily burn me this week, because if he's locked in, he's going to be a factor, but I'm banking on him not being locked in this week. Two weeks from now, yes, but not this week.    

My Pick: Patrick Cantlay – My picks from here on out might not be in-line with the majority because I've dug myself quite the hole, but Cantlay isn't too far off the beaten path this week, even if his play hasn't been great this season. The reason he'll get some attention this week and the reason I like him is his track record here. Cantlay hasn't been at his best in recent years, but in a five-year span from 2018-2022, Cantlay won twice and finished inside the top-5 two other times. After three starts at this event where he wasn't a factor, perhaps the pressure to perform here is off and maybe that's what he needs this week.    

Previous Results

View the PGA earnings report to find total winnings and winnings per entry via our fantasy golf stats pages.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Matt Fitzpatrick ($11,100)
Middle Range: J.J. Spaun ($9,800)
Lower Range: Sepp Straka ($8,800)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Adam Scott – I was planning on doubling-up this week with Cantlay, but I used him in this format already. Instead I'll pivot to a guy that's made the cut here in 15/16 starts. Scott is also playing at a pretty high level this season, so there's really not much risk in this play. Oh, and we're only cutting about 20 percent of the field this week.   

Previous Results