The Memorial Tournament Betting Preview

One of only two signature events left in the year, the PGA Tour heads north for the annual Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village just outside of Columbus, Ohio. Hosted by Hall of Famer Jack Nicklaus since its inception in 1976, the 72-player field will have a 36-hole cut (top-50 plus anyone within 10 shots off the lead) and is highlighted by World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+310), with Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland being the only eligible golfers missing the event. Last year, Scheffler (+280) successfully defended his title by four strokes over Ben Griffin.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11:00 AM ET Wednesday

Course Overview

Par 72, 7,569 yards

These are the average rankings of the Memorial Tournament winners since 2021:

• SG: Off-the-Tee: 8.0
• SG: Approach: 9.2
• SG: Around-the-Green: 14.8
• SG: Putting: 18.2
• SG: Tee-to-Green: 3.2
• Driving Distance: 22.8
• Driving Accuracy: 29.0

Following a difficult scoring week at Colonial, things don't get any easier at Muirfield where the winning score has been single digits two of the last three years and the runner-up has reached double digits only once since 2020. Outside of the four par-5s, only the short par-4 14th hole has played under-par since 2021, and players will need to survive the difficult three-hole closing stretch that consists of a long par-3 over water and two long par-4s. Off the tee, players are faced with moderately wide fairways with water in play on half of the non par-3s and also surrounded by penalizing four-inch rough. Water also comes into play on over half of the approaches, and we can see from the metrics above that SG: Tee-to-Green is a key statistic as the champion has led the field in the category in four of the last five years. Overall, this is a venue that tests every club in the bag and thus I'm favoring golfers that are good all-around players, in addition to those that hit their approaches well from 200+ yards and rank well in bogey avoidance. 

Course History

The following players have the lowest scoring average at Muirfield Village over the last five years (minimum eight rounds played):

• Scottie Scheffler: 69.8
• Patrick Cantlay: 71.4
• Si Woo Kim: 71.7
• Jordan Spieth: 71.8
• Ludvig Aberg: 71.9

It's not often we see someone with a scoring average over a shot and a half lower than anyone else in the field, but that how dominant Scheffler has been at the venue. Aiming for a three-peat, Scheffler has finished no worse than third here the last four years and is gaining a whopping 2.36 strokes on approach per round during that stretch. Another player with a history of success here is Spieth, who is still looking for his first win at the venue while also looking to break a winless drought that has now reached over four years. He's posted four top-10s here including two in the last three years and has eight top-25s this year, but his last top-10 came a full year ago here. Entering the week with 46-1 odds, Spieth is overdue to get into contention and playing well enough to do just that.

Current Form

These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes from tee to green across their last 20 rounds:

• Scottie Scheffler: 2.58
• Cameron Young: 2.08
• Rory McIlroy: 1.96
• Matt Fitzpatrick: 1.95
• Ludvig Aberg: 1.93

I'll skip past Scheffler, whose track record and recent form make him the overwhelming favorite. Next on this list is Young, who would be the Player of the Year if the season ended today. If there's anything to be hesitant about, he hasn't played great at the Memorial, with a best finish of T25 across four appearances. Right behind him on the odds board as the fourth choice on the board is Aberg (16-1), who has shown form here with a T5 in his debut and a top-20 last year. The narrative on Aberg's inability to close is going to continue to follow him until he wins again, but it's difficult to ignore the consistency of a guy that's had a top-5 result in four of his last seven starts.

The Memorial Tournament Bets: Outright Picks

Xander Schauffele (+1750)

Coming off an outright win with Russell Henley last week, I'll start this week with Schauffele. The World No. 10 ranks well in several important categories this week including SG: Tee-to-Green (17th) and bogey avoidance (11th), which has helped lead to five top-10s across his last seven starts. He's also been consistent here with eight consecutive top-25s, most of which came when they were full field events.

Justin Thomas (40-1)

Thomas' putter let him down at Colonial, but he was second from tee to green and had his best ball-striking week of the year en route to his fourth consecutive top-25. Thomas looks on the verge of winning again soon, and he's a past runner-up at Jack's place with two other top-10s.

Alex Smalley (54-1)

There aren't many players hotter than Smalley right now. He's posted back-to-back top-3 finishes (including the PGA Championship) for his seventh straight top-25 finish. People may shy away from him because he's missed the cut in both of his prior starts here, but so did Griffin before finishing runner-up last year.

The Memorial Tournament Bets: Placement Wagers

Ben Griffin
Top-5 Finish: +580

Speaking of Griffin's result last year, he's back to playing like the golfer we saw much of last year, finishing one shot out of a playoff last week for his second top-5 result in May. His excellent scrambling will be needed with how difficult it is to score and hit greens consistently at Muirfield Village.

Alex Fitzpatrick
Top-10 Finish: +650

The younger Fitzpatrick took a week off following his excellent run that consisted of the Zurich team win and back-to-back top-10s in signature events. This can be a tricky place for first-timers, but he's shown he can step up to the challenge and his steady all-around game should help.

Shane Lowry
Top-5 Finish: +1050

Lowry has a solid track record at the venue with four top-25s, and he was third in SG: Approach here last year. He hasn't posted a top-20 since early March, which is surprising considering he's 27th in SG: Total this year. Lowry is overdue for some positive regression.

The Memorial Tournament Bets: Head-to-Head Matchup

Patrick Cantlay (+110) over Russell Henley

We saw Henley win last week, but his iron play and putting has been inconsistent, losing strokes in each category in three of his last six tournaments. I'll side with Cantlay at plus money, who has also been playing well with four top-15s across his last five events - three of which came at elevated events. Cantlay is also a two-time winner at Muirfield Village.

The Memorial Tournament Bets: First Round Leader

J.J. Spaun (37-1)

Spaun held a share of the first round lead at Colonial with an opening 64 last week, so here's to betting that he can get off to another fast start with his early tee time. He ranks in the top-10 in SG: Approach and tee to green, and he looks to be back in his 2025 form after a sluggish first three months of the year. 

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