Underdog PGA Draft Strategy: the Memorial Tournament

The best strategy and picks for Underdog PGA Drafts at the Memorial Tournament, including why Cullum Brownbridge thinks Kurt Kitayama makes for an excellent course fit at Muirfield Village.
Underdog PGA Draft Strategy: the Memorial Tournament

The Memorial Tournament

Purse: $20M
Winner's Share: $4M
FedEx Cup Points: 700 to the winner
Location: Dublin, Ohio
Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club
Yardage: 7,569
Par: 72

Previous Winners

2025 - Scottie Scheffler
2024 - Scottie Scheffler
2023 - Viktor Hovland
2022 - Billy Horschel
2021 - Patrick Cantlay
2020 - Jon Rahm
2019 - Patrick Cantlay
2018 - Bryson DeChambeau
2017 - Jason Dufner
2016 - William McGirt

Recap: Henley Triumphs at Colonial in Playoff

After a birdie fest at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson last week, scoring returned to relative normalcy for the Charles Schwab Challenge, with only the top-9 players scoring 10-under or better. Eric Cole was the clubhouse leader heading into the final round, and despite not gaining any strokes Sunday, he maintained his lead for most of the day while the rest of the field jockeyed for position, including reigning U.S. Open Champion J.J. Spaun (T6), Houston Open winner Gary Woodland (T6), Alex Smalley (T3) and defending CSC champion Ben Griffin (T3).

However, it was Russell Henley who made a late surge with three-straight birdies over his last three holes to force a playoff with Cole. Each player's tee shot found the fairway, but Henley's approach shot was far better, leading to a birdie that was enough to beat out Cole's par to earn the former his sixth career PGA Tour victory and second since 2025. Although Cole fell short of capturing his maiden victory on the PGA Tour, his performance at the Charles Schwab Challenge was enough for him to jump up to second in the Aon Swing 5 standings to earn himself a spot in the Memorial Tournament this week.

Other notable finishes at Colonial Country Club include Mac Meissner (T3), Justin Thomas (T13), Hideki Matsuyama (T13) and Ludvig Aberg (T17). Top names that failed to make it to the weekend include Rickie Fowler, Keith Mitchell, Sungjae Im and Rasmus Hojgaard.

Preview: The Memorial Tournament

The Memorial Tournament is the penultimate Signature Event on the PGA Tour calendar and sits two weeks away from the third major of the season, the U.S. Open Championship. As such, the top players are in the field this week, including two-time defending champion and world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who is looking to become the first player in over a decade to three-peat at a Tour event. Nine of the top-10 players in the world will tee off this week -- including Henley, Rory McIlroy, Cameron Young and Matt Fitzpatrick -- with the exception being Collin Morikawa. We'll also see Aaron Rai for the first time since his memorable victory at the PGA Championship at Aronimink.

This year marks the 51st version of the Memorial, which was won by Roger Maltbie in a playoff over Hale Irwin in the debut event in 1976. It has been one of the hardest courses on the Tour since it underwent sizable renovations six years ago. Scheffler won last year with a 10-under cumulative score, but Griffin and Sepp Straka were far behind with scores of six-under and five-under, respectively. In fact, only the top-12 players on the leaderboard last year shot under par. Scheffler won the event two years ago at eight-under, and 2023 champion Victor Hovland ended the tournament with the seven-under score, beating out Denny McCarthy in a playoff.

With any Jack Nicklaus designed course, golfers who wish to rise to the top will need to be good with every aspect of their game. The back nine is harder than the front, with the three-hole stretch from 16 to 18 being one of the hardest on tour (no nickname needed). Water plays a factor on 13 holes, bunkers are littered across the course and the greens are some of the smallest and fastest that players will navigate this season. Similar to Augusta National, the best way to move up the leaderboard is to score on the par-5s, all of which are reachable under regulation. Strong approach play and excellence around and on the green are going to be the keys to success here at Murifield.

Underdog Contest Overview

Underdog hosts drafts every week at three buy-in amounts; The Par 3 at $3, the featured draft at $10, and "The Sandbagger" at $100. Each entrant will be paired up with five other participants and participate in a six-man snake draft of teams made up of six players (36 total selections), with each selection on a 30-second timer. For example, the person with the first overall pick and lucky enough to get Scheffler (unless you like to live dangerously) will have to wait until 2.6 and 3.1 to make their next selections. Points are allocated to golfers based on their performance on every hole, with bonus points available for golfers who make consecutive birdies or finish a round bogey free.

First Two Rounds

Ludvig Aberg (3.0 Average Draft Position)

Aberg was the favorite heading into Colonial Country Club last week, so his T17 was a bit of a letdown. Still, the young Swede has finished in the top-20 in eight of his last nine outings (with a T21 at The Masters being the exception), and that includes five top-5 finishes. He has a well-rounded statistical matrix this season and leads the PGA Tour in Approach beyond 200 yards, while his SG: Total of 1.72 is second only to Scheffler. Aberg also ranks fourth in SG: Off-the-Tee, sixth in proximity, eighth in SG: Approach, 12th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 16th in GIR. That's all to say that he has a well-rounded game that fits nicely at Memorial, as evidenced by his T5 finish in 2024 and T16 last year.

Matt Fitzpatrick (6.1 ADP)

Fitzpatrick is coming off a T14 performance at the PGA Championship two weeks ago, which was a nice bounce-back performance from his T52 at the Truist Championship. The Englishman is enjoying a career year with three Tour victories -- the Valspar Championship, RBC Heritage and the Zurich Classic that earned his brother, Alex, a PGA Tour membership -- all of which came after his runner-up performance to Cameron Young at THE PLAYERS. Fitzpatrick has enjoyed previous success at the Memorial with three top-10 finishes in seven prior outings, including solo third in 2020. He ranks second in SG: Tee-to-Green, fourth in both and SG: Approach and total driving (including fourth in accuracy), seventh in bogey avoidance and GIR and eighth in SG: Around-the-Green.

Russell Henley (10.2 ADP)

Henley rebounded from his MC at the PGA Championship with a come-from-behind victory last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge, his first win since last year's Arnold Palmer Invitational and sixth PGA Tour victory in his career. He does everything well, ranking in top-50 in all Strokes Gained categories, including 21st in SG: Tee-to-Green. He also leads the tour in both driving accuracy and scrambling while ranking second in bogey avoidance. Henley finished T5 at the Memorial last year.

Alex Smalley (11.6 ADP)

Smalley followed up his T2 at the PGA Championship with a T3 performance last week at Colonial. He's finished in the top-10 in four of his last five outings, including three top-5s. He missed the cut in each of his two prior appearances at Murifield, but Smalley is in the best form of his career and is inching closer toward a maiden PGA Tour victory. He's in the top-30 in SG: Approach, Putting and Tee-to-Green while ranking sixth in GIR, eighth in proximity, 10th in Approach beyond 200 yards and 14th in bogey avoidance.

Also consider: Cameron Young (4.1 ADP - ranks in the top-20 in all SG categories other than putting (48th) while also ranking third in bogey avoidance, sixth in both scrambling and total driving and seventh in proximity).

Middle-Round Value

Ben Griffin (16.9 ADP)

Griffin put together a commendable title defense last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge, where he finished T3. He's finished in the top-15 in three of his last four outings, including solo third at the Cadillac Championship and T14 at the PGA Championship. He missed the cut in each of his first two appearances at Murifield but finished solo second to Scheffler last year. Griffin has been one of the best short game players on the Tour this season, ranking ninth in SG: Around-the-Green as well as 16th in SG: Putting.

Jordan Spieth (18.2 ADP)

Spieth has eight top-25 finishes in 14 tournaments this season (including three times over his last four outings), though he has yet to record a top-10 finish. What better place to do so than the Memorial, where he's logged four top-10s in 13 prior appearances, including T7 last year and T5 in 2023. Spieth is above average across all SG categories (including top-50 in both Putting and Tee-to-Green) 

Sepp Straka (22.4 ADP)

Straka missed the cut at the PGA Championship three weeks ago and opted to take a break, going home to compete in the DP World Tour's Austrian Alpine Open, where he finished T12. He's made the cut in five of six outings at the Memorial, including T5 in 2024 and solo third last year. Straka ranks eighth in approaches beyond 200 yards, ninth in SG: Approach and 29th in SG: Tee-to-Green.

Adam Scott (23.0 ADP)

Scott is looking to bounce back from an MC at the PGA Championship, his first missed cut of the season. The Memorial is a good place to do so, as he's made the cut in 15 of 16 prior appearances, including T9 in 2023 and solo second in 2019. Scott ranks second in SG: Approach and approaches beyond 200 yards, 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 11th in GIR, 14th in proximity and top-25 in both total driving and bogey avoidance

Also consider: Sam Burns (21.3 ADP - coming off a T26 at the PGA Championship, ranks sixth on the Tour in SG: Putting and has finished T16-T15-T12 in each of his last three appearances at Murifield). 

Late-Round Targets

Gary Woodland (26.1 ADP)

Woodland continued his feel-good 2026 season with a T6 last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge, which was a nice rebound after missing the cut at the PGA Championship. It was his third top-10 finish of the season, which includes his win at the Texas Children's Open. Woodland ranks eighth in SG: Off-the-Tee and 19th in total driving (including third in driving distance). He's also 33rd in SG: Putting and 39th in approaches beyond 200 yards.

Kurt Kitayama (28.1 ADP)

Kitayama has missed the cut in each of his three outings at the Memorial. However, he is in excellent form, having cracked the top-10 in three of his last four tournaments, including most recently at the PGA Championship with a T10. Kitayama ranks fourth in GIR, fifth in SG: Approach, seventh in total driving, 15th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 35th in proximity.

Aaron Rai (32.4 ADP)

Rai's triumph at the PGA Championship hasn't given him the ADP bump that I anticipated. Granted, prior to his victory at Aronimink, the Englishman had just one top-10 in his nine prior tournaments (solo fifth at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic), and he missed the cut in each of his last two outings at the Memorial. Perhaps his breakthrough in the last major will propel Rai to further success this season. He does rank eighth in GIR and 25th in SG: Approach and is above average across all other SG categories.

Alex Fitzpatrick (34.8 ADP)

I'll round off with Matt's brother, Alex, who has taken full advantage of his PGA Tour membership that he gained thanks to the Fitzpatrick brother's victory at the Zurich Classic. Alex has shown that he can compete in Signature Events, having finished T9 at the Cadillac Championship and solo fourth at the Truist before a T75 at the PGA Championship. This week will be his debut at Murifield. 

Also consider: Nick Taylor (35.6 ADP - finished solo fourth in last year's Memorial Tournament, proceeded his T26 at the PGA Championship with a T9 at the Cadillac Championship and T14 at the Truist).

For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, tournament participation and overall golfer performance, head to RotoWire's latest golf news or follow @RotoWireGolf on X.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Cullum is a RotoWire contributor for the NFL, NBA, MLB and Golf. He is irrationally pessimistic about his favorite sports teams.
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