Justin Herbert

After two top-10 fantasy seasons, including QB2 in 2021, the last two years have been less than spectacular for Herbert. Injuries played a part, including last season when he missed the final four games with a finger injury that required surgery. Even when healthy, he didn't live up to expectations. In four of his last seven full games he posted no more than 13 fantasy points. Herbert was on target with 74.3 percent of his attempts (8th in NFL), but his average target depth was a middling 7.6 yards (17th) and he only completed 32.2 percent of his attempts of 20-plus yards (21st), all of which resulted in a mediocre 6.9 YPA (21st). This season, he'll have a new system with new teammates. As the Jim Harbaugh era begins, gone are RB Austin Ekeler and WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Joshua Palmer, coming off an injury-marred season, is the No. 1 WR by default followed by Quentin Johnston, a 2023 first-round pick who had a miserable rookie season. 2024 second-round pick Ladd McConkey, who has 4.39 speed, will challenge both for targets, and the team also signed veteran DJ Chark. How many targets are available is another matter with new run-minded offensive coordinator Greg Roman -- Herbert's fourth OC in five years. The strong-armed Herbert certainly won't get the 39.1 attempts per game he averaged the last four years -- only Tom Brady averaged more since 2020.

Herbert looked poised for a big season last year, but injuries knocked him (and the Chargers) off course. Fractured rib cartilage suffered Week 2 hampered Herbert for several weeks, and he threw seven interceptions in a nine-game stretch with a 6.4 YPA and 6.2-yard average target depth (the team went 4-5). Compounding the situation were a season-ending biceps tear for LT Rashawn Slater in Week 3 and lesser injuries to WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, who played only four full games together. No surprise, then, Herbert’s TD passes dropped by 13 from the previous year, and while he was second in the league with 4,739 passing yards, he needed 699 attempts to get there as his average target depth (6.5) ranked 31st and his 6.8 YPA ranked 26th. The Chargers had enough of OC Joe Lombardi’s scheme, replacing him with former Cowboys coordinator Kellen Moore in the offseason. A more balanced offense -- L.A. was 31st in run percentage (35.0) last season -- with improved efficiency in the passing game would benefit Hebert even if it means fewer pass attempts. He was on the field for OTAs after January surgery on his non-throwing shoulder, wasting no time getting to work with Moore and first-round pick Quentin Johnston. The rookie gives Herbert a second deep threat across from Williams, while Allen, RB Austin Ekeler and TE Gerald Everett provide plenty of firepower for shorter throws.

Herbert followed his record-setting rookie year with another season of prolific numbers last year. He became the only player in NFL history with 30-plus touchdown passes in each of his first two years, setting records for most TD passes, passing yards and 300-yards games in a player’s first two seasons. Herbert even finished QB2 in fantasy, with at least 300 yards or three TD passes in 12 games en route to ranking third in touchdowns (38) and second in yards (5,014). His passing efficiency last season was similar to his impressive first year, up a tick or two in a few places like YPA, on-target percentage and average target depth. And he was again effective throwing downfield, ranking third in on-target rate on attempts of 20-plus yards (min. 50 attempts). Herbert did all that after learning his second offense in as many years with the arrival of a new coaching staff. With head coach Brandon Staley and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi returning, stability figures to help Herbert in his third year. A bigger help is the return of wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and running back Austin Ekeler. The Chargers added TE Gerald Everett to replace Jared Cook, then drafted RG Zion Johnson in the first round to improve their offensive line. Herbert has a strong roster around him, and he's yet to really tap into his running ability, which gives him additional upside on top of his continued growth as a passer.

It took an errant needle poke to Tyrod Taylor's lung to get Herbert his first start last season in Week 2, but he quickly showed he should have been the starter all along. The sixth overall pick in the 2020 draft, Herbert set numerous NFL rookie records, including most TD passes (31) and most passing yards per game (289.1). He became the youngest player in NFL history with 30 TD passes in a season and was the fourth rookie with 4,000 passing yards. Scouts questioned his touch on deep balls coming out of Oregon, but Herbert had few issues capitalizing with his cannon arm, connecting for 10 TD passes on attempts 20-plus yards (3rd) and completing eight passes that went for at least 50 yards (T-1st). He was also good under pressure, completing 54.9 percent of his attempts with an on-target rate of 63.4 percent, both third in the league. And his 4.68 speed added fantasy value as he rushed for five touchdowns (T-6th). Part of Herbert's work last year was the result of volume (39.7 attempts per game, 3rd), as his bad-pass percentage ranked 26th (20.2) and his average target depth was 25th (7.8 yards). But new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, who ran a pass-happy offense in Detroit in 2014-15 before serving as Saints QB coach the last five years, could help Herbert improve in those areas without sacrificing too much volume. And Herbert still has quality weapons in Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and former Saints TE Jared Cook. The Chargers also upgraded the offensive line, signing All-Pro center Corey Linsley and left guard Matt Feiler and drafting left tackle Rashawn Slater 13th overall. Herbert, who finished QB9 last season, easily could jump into the top 5 of fantasy QBs this year.

Herbert, the third quarterback drafted this year at sixth overall, looks like the ideal NFL QB at 6-6, 236, with plus athleticism and 4.68 speed in the 40. But he has some issues to overcome before the Chargers crown him heir apparent to Philip Rivers. Herbert has a rifle for an arm to attack downfield but, according to scouts, lacks touch on his deep ball, and his footwork and mechanics are apt to break down under pressure. Despite being a four-year starter at Oregon, Herbert was noted for his inconsistency - even as senior. In his final four games, he stumbled to 58.9 percent passing with four TDs, three INTs and 202 yards per game. And while his timed speed was third fastest among quarterbacks at the combine, Herbert seemed to reluctant to tuck it and run as a collegian. He also needs to adapt to an NFL route tree after playing in Oregon's limited offensive scheme, though that shouldn't be too high a hurdle for the winner of last year's "Academic Heisman." Plus, with Tyrod Taylor entering camp as the starter, Herbert has time to develop his game before likely taking the reins later in the year. When he does, he'll have an improved offensive line protecting him with Mike Pouncey returning from injury, joined by the newly acquired Trai Turner and Bryan Bulaga. He also has excellent weapons to target, including Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler. Herbert might not be NFL-ready when the season opens, but time is on his side.