2025 The Sentry Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Published on January 1, 2025

The Sentry Betting Preview

The 2025 PGA Tour season is upon us and the beginning of the new year kicks off as usual in Hawaii for The Sentry at Kapalua's Plantation Course. Previously known as the Tournament of Champions, the 60-man field is limited to golfers that won an event in 2024 as well as those that finished last season in the top-50 of the FedExCup Standings. Xander Schauffele headlines the field as the tournament favorite at 11-2 odds and is one of only two players with single digit odds for the no-cut event. Last year, longshot Chris Kirk (130-1 odds) pulled off a surprising win by one stroke over Sahith Theegala for his sixth Tour victory.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 2:00 PM ET Wednesday

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Course Overview

Par 73, 7,596 yards

These are the average rankings of the event champions over the last five years:

SG: Off-the-Tee: 8.6
SG: Approach: 13.6
SG: Around-the-Green: 8.8
SG: Putting: 5.2
SG: Tee-to-Green: 5.4
Driving Distance: 9.8
Driving Accuracy: 23.6

Much like Augusta National, Kapalua is a course that strongly favors those that have experience at the venue and you have to go all the way back to 2008 to find a player that won in his debut. The uniqueness of the course is a big reason why as the Plantation Course has a lot of undulation throughout and requires more strategy that your typical bomb-and-gouge Tour venue. Off the tee, players are faced with extremely generous landing areas that average over 45 yards wide with minimal rough or penalty for wayward drives. Although the course appears long at nearly 7,600 yards, it's the only place on Tour with three par-3s and when you combine that with fairways that have a lot of runout, it's not a long course by any means. That sets this up as more of a second-shot golf course, and players will see a lot of short approaches from inside 75 yards as well as 200+. Only four holes played over par last year, so expect to see a lot of birdies and low scores. Overall, I'm not downgrading inaccurate drivers this week and putting more emphasis on putting than usual.

Maui Monsters

The following golfers have the lowest scoring average at Kapalua since 2020 (minimum two appearances).

Im has yet to win in Maui but his consistency with results of T5-T8-T13-T5 in four appearances at the event is difficult to ignore. Although he went through a lull early in 2024, he rebounded with 10 top-15s across his final 14 events and looks to be back to his top form. Im comes in as tied for the sixth betting choice at 18-1 odds, and rightfully so. Meanwhile, Morikawa (11-1) has been about as good as it gets without winning here with top-10s in all five of his appearances. He's also gained at least a stroke per round off the tee and on approach combined. Morikawa came close to winning in 2023, finishing two back of Jon Rahm to finish solo second. Although overshadowed by Schauffele and Scottie Scheffler, Morikawa had a strong year with seven top-5s and was runner-up at the Tour Championship.

Tee to Green Tacticians

These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last 20 rounds.

Schauffele will look to build off his exceptional 2024 season that saw him win two majors and post 15 top-10s across 22 starts. His all around play was a big reason why – he ranked second in SG: Tee-to-Green behind only Scheffler. The 2019 event champion, Schauffele has three top-10s across seven appearances here. Another player on this list that also won twice last year is Matsuyama, and he's been close to winning here with top-5s in each of his first three trips to the event. Although he's struggled here since, he comes in healthy and playing much better golf than we've seen from him over the past few years and shouldn't be overlooked at 20-1 odds.

The Sentry Bets: Outright Picks

Ludvig Aberg (14-1)

It's interesting to see Aberg at 14-1 while Thomas and Morikawa are 9-1 and 11-1, respectively. I think he's the best value among the top-tier options. Aberg ranks well in short and long approaches which are key factors here. He didn't win last year but finished runner-up three times. I don't think it will take him long to win in 2025.

Sam Burns (25-1)

Burns won three times in the 2021-22 season, so he clearly has a high ceiling when his game is on, even if he hasn't won a stroke play event since. I think that changes this year and possibly right away. He's always putted well here, is a great all-around player and excellent from inside 100 yards.

Sahith Theegala (25-1)

Theegala makes for an excellent course fit at the Plantation Course with his only weakness being that he's a bid sporadic off the tee which doesn't come into play much on these wide fairways. Last year's runner-up is too good of a value to pass up at 25-1 in this small field.

The Sentry Bets: Placement Wagers

Wyndham Clark
Top-5 Finish: 11-2

Clark was a mediocre T29 in his first appearance here last year, but he was third in SG: Off-the-Tee and the normally reliable putter had a bad week on the greens. He's an excellent wedge player and his game should fit the course well. I think he takes a big leap in his second year around the unique venue.

Kevin Yu
Top-10 Finish: 7-1

Yes, this place can be tricky for first timers, but Yu boosted his stock massively this fall with a win and three top-20s over his last five events. His ball striking stats – 12th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 36th in approach last season jump off the page for someone at these long of odds.

Aaron Rai
Top-5 Finish: 11-1

I'm not sure if golf fans realize how solid Rai was last year as evidenced by him finishing sixth in SG: Total. He's not a long hitter but that didn't prevent Kirk from winning here last year. Rai had five top-5s since May, so I'll gladly take him at double-digit odds.

The Sentry Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

Alex Noren (+100) over Cameron Young

This will be Noren's first trip to Kapalua and while that isn't ideal his all-around game should make him a good fit and we're getting even money. He's an easy target in matchups as he went through a stretch with nine consecutive top-25s last year. Young was a mediocre T33 here last year and his continued struggles on the putting surface make him difficult to rely on.

Denny McCarthy (-115) over Will Zalatoris

Zalatoris has yet to find the top-10 form we saw from him prior to back surgery. While he did have a few good results early in 2024, he only posted two top-25s since May and missed eight cuts in 22 events. That makes him a risky matchup bet, especially against McCarthy, who has proven to be a much more reliable player at this point of their careers. His profile of being short off the tee, a good wedge player and excellent putter should fit well here.

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