The Genesis Invitational Betting Preview
The final event of the West Coast Swing heads to Los Angeles for the return of The Genesis Invitational to Riviera Country Club after the 2025 event was moved to Torrey Pines due the devastating LA wildfires last January. The second straight signature event features a 72-player field in which the top-50 golfers plus ties and anyone within 10 shots of the lead will make the 36-hole cut, and Scottie Scheffler headlines as the tournament favorite at +305. Ludvig Aberg serves as the defending champion after winning by one shot over Maverick McNealy last year, while Hideki Matsuyama (60-1 odds) won the 2024 event at Riviera by three shots over Will Zalatoris and Luke List.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 1:00 PM ET unless otherwise noted.
Course Overview
Par 71, 7,383 yards
These are the average rankings of The Genesis Invitational champions at Riviera since 2021:
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 12.6
- SG: Approach: 8.2
- SG: Around-the-Green: 10.6
- SG: Putting: 9.6
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 1.6
- Driving Distance: 14.3
- Driving Accuracy: 30.2
Riviera tends to be one of the professionals' favorite venues as a challenging but fair test that exposes any weaknesses in one's game and has some unique holes. The beginning of each front-nine features trademark holes - the downhill par-5 first that allowed 16 eagles in 2024, and then No. 10 – a 315 yard par-4 with bunkers on both sides of the green that will allow birdies but also bring double and triple bogey as players routinely go from one bunker to another. Outside of these two holes, only the other two par-5s played under-par in 2024, so it will be imperative to take advantage of the par-5s. As we can see from the metrics above, it's balanced across the board, with tee to green play standing out as the champion has led the field in the category in two of the last three years. Off the tee, players are faced with moderately wide fairways surrounded by two-inch rough. There are a few forced layups, and overall, I'll give a slight edge to the longer hitters. In addition to well balanced golfers, I'll be targeting players that hit their irons well from 150-200 yards, as we'll see a lot of approach shots in that range.
Best at Riviera
The following golfers have the lowest scoring average at Riviera over the past five years:
- Max Homa: 68.3
- Cameron Young: 68.6
- Patrick Cantlay: 68.8
- Jason Day: 68.8
- Collin Morikawa: 68.9
Homa has feasted in his hometown event, winning in a playoff in 2021, finishing runner-up two years later and has finished no worse than T16 across his last five appearances. Something will have to give between his track record and current level of play, as he isn't playing nearly as well as those past performances, having posted a best finish of T27 through three events this year and only two top-10s since the start of last year. Meanwhile, Cantlay (26-1) is looking for his first win at Riviera, and he's been close before with a T4 in 2018 and back-to-back top-5s. Although we haven't seen him at the top of his game in a couple years, he's still playing solid with a pair of top-15s across three starts this year as he looks to break a winless drought that is approaching four years.
Top Tee to Green Players
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes from tee to green across their last 20 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler: 2.69
- Si Woo Kim: 2.42
- Collin Morikawa: 1.50
- Rory McIlroy: 1.48
- Russell Henley: 1.44
Scheffler's PGA Tour modern-era record of 18 consecutive top-10 finishes was in danger of coming to an end at Pebble Beach, but for a second tournament in a row he made a charge on the weekend, posting rounds of 67-63 to come up two back of Collin Morikawa. His results here are subpar by his standards with a best finish of T7 across six appearances, but there was a similar sentiment before he won The American Express last month. Speaking of Morikawa, his multi-year winless stretch ended at Pebble after leading the field in SG: Approach and tee to green. It will be an interesting to see if it leads to a more consistent year as his ball-striking is at an elite level, but he still needs to make strides on the greens. Morikawa finished T2 here back in 2022.
The Genesis Invitational Bets: Outright Picks
Rory McIlroy (+1275)
McIlroy has shown form at Riviera with a pair of top-5s when it was a full field event. He had a solid showing in his 2026 PGA Tour debut at Pebble, finishing T14 and ranked fourth in SG: Approach. McIlroy won three times last year including once during the West Coast Swing.
Sam Burns (+3500)
Burns is another player with a good course history, finishing one shot out of a playoff in 2021 and posted a top-10 here last year. He played well at Pebble as he was one back heading into the weekend before ultimately finishing T6.
Kurt Kitayama (+7600)
Kitayama stands out in this price range due to his ball striking having ranked 12th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 32nd on approach last year. He won a signature event on another difficult course in Bay Hill in 2023 before finding the winner's circle again last year.
The Genesis Invitational Bets: Placement Picks
Chris Gotterup (Top-5 at +470)
Speaking of players that are no stranger to excelling with their long game, Gotterup ranks in the top-10 in SG: Off-the-Tee and driving distance and is also gaining 0.62 strokes per round on approach early in the season. He'll be making his Riviera debut but it's hard to find a course that doesn't fit his game.
Ryan Fox (Top-10 at +720)
Another player making his Riviera debut, Fox should be a good course fit as a solid putter and well-rounded player. The veteran won twice last year and has started 2026 with back-to-back top-25s, gaining shots in every category in both tournaments.
Ryan Gerard (Top-5 at +875)
Gerard's hot stretch finally came to an end last week but let's not forget that he's fifth in the FedExCup Standings for a reason. Playing the best golf of his career, Gerard has stood out with his driving and iron play and has gained stroked on the greens in all four tournaments this year.
The Genesis Invitational Bets: 1st Round Leader
Alex Noren (+5000 FanDuel)
Noren posted top-20s in two of his first three appearances at Riviera (2018 and 2021) and has gained over a stroke per round on approach in two of his last three trips. Following back-to-back missed cuts to start the year, he rebounded with a T29 at Pebble Beach and gained shots in every strokes gained category. Across 87 PGA Tour starts since 2021, Noren has held at least a co-lead after the first round on three occasions.
Harry Hall (+5500 FanDuel)
Hall shared the first round lead twice last year, so he's no stranger to going low early. This will be his Riviera debut, and his excellent wedge play combined with arguably the best short game on Tour will help. Hall has three top-25s across four starts this year.
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