PGA DFS contests have exploded in popularity in recent years, with most Tour events including at least three DFS tournaments with prize pools of $250k on up at various buy-in levels. In this article, we'll break down some of the key things to know to help you build the best possible lineups.
Be sure to dive into our entire golf draft kit, which includes all the tools you will need for success, including fantasy golf cheat sheets.
5 Rules To Live By
- Get to Know the Course
- Focus on Upside in GPPs
- Understand Leverage
- Factor in Correlation
- Course History Matters
Rule No. 1: Get to Know the Course
Before we dive into the tournament field, we have to study the course of that week's event to determine which metrics are going to be more or less important in a given week. The PGA Tour schedule is so diverse, and some venues like TPC River Highlands (host of the Travelers Championship) play under 7,000 yards and strongly favor driving accuracy. Then there are courses like Quail Hollow that are over 800 yards longer and will benefit the longer hitters. Is this week's event a birdie-fest or should we expect the winning score to be around 10-under or less? Are players going to see a lot of wedge approaches? The PGA Tour's site is filled with stats on almost anything you can think of that will help you give boosts (or downgrades) to golfers based on their course fit.
Rule No. 2: Focus on Upside in GPPs
With so much of the money in GPP Tournaments (Guaranteed Prize Pools) going to the top few finishers, it's imperative that we focus on golfers that can contend. Some players are prone to a lot of missed cuts, but have a top-5 ceiling when things are clicking, and others see the weekend often but rarely find themselves near the top of the leaderboard. Those golfers can be fine for cash games, but a T40 isn't going to help you take down a tournament. Look for players that are elite in a couple skill sets and target them when their weaknesses aren't much of a detriment at certain courses.
Rule No. 3: Understand Leverage
Often, the most popular plays in the $7k and $6k range disappoint. After all, these golfers are priced there for a reason and usually have various weaknesses and inconsistencies. We need to have really good reasons to play the $7k golfer that is 15+% rostered and the $6k player that is close to 10%. There will be players in this range most tournaments that finish in the top-15 that are less than 5% rostered, and we'll gain a lot of leverage on the field if we can find them. And it's OK to be chalky. After all, Scottie Scheffler is winning a lot of tournaments these days. Just make sure when you do play him or someone else that is expected to be over 20% rostered that we mix in more players in the single-digit rostership range.
Rule No. 4: Factor in Correlation
Stacking is essentially a must in the NFL or MLB due to the correlation that comes with multiple players from the same team scoring on a touchdown or home run, but it's often an afterthought in PGA contests since golfers don't play on teams. Nevertheless, correlation is something that can still certainly come into play, whether it be rostering similar types of golfers or players all from the same wave. For example, it's not uncommon for the weather to benefit those playing in the Thursday morning/Friday afternoon wave in the first two rounds (or vice versa). And when it comes to playing styles, it's wise to stack your lineup with golfers with similar strengths, whether that be long hitters, short hitters, those that play well in wind, golfers that make a lot of birdies, etc.
Rule No. 5: Course History Matters
The PGA Tour travels to a lot of the same venues on a yearly basis, so we have a lot of history to factor in. Of course, there will be players that have a small sample size (or no course history) and this is just one piece of the puzzle, but it's something we have to consider. One of the keys here is finding players with past success that aren't going to be overly popular. Maybe it's a golfer that had a bad putting week his last tournament leading to a missed cut, or a poor showing the year prior when their form wasn't as good as it is now, leading to most DFS players overlooking them.
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