Texas Grand Prix Preview: Circuit of the Americas

This weekend the NASCAR Cup Series returns to the Circuit of the Americas road course for their fourth visit after NASCAR's 2021 debut at the facility. This track is a 20-turn, 3.426-mile long road course that is located in Austin, Texas. The event is 68 laps, divided into three stages of 15 laps, 15 laps and 38 laps. Top speeds (93 mph pole) are limited by the highly-technical layout and 20 challenging turns. The circuit is very reminiscent of the many Formula One tracks that dot most of the landscape of Europe. In fact, the facility was created as a venue to specifically host F1 events. The track is really unlike any other road course that NASCAR races on with the possible exception of the Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course. F1 races regularly at COTA and IndyCar and IMSA have raced at the circuit in the recent past. NASCAR has spent the last few seasons making this facility a regular part of its annual Cup Series schedule.

The first season at COTA was marred by terrible weather. Persistent rain over that weekend hampered practice, qualifying and most-especially the race. Rain tires were used to make the event possible, but at times the lack of grip and lack of visibility made the racing treacherous and extremely challenging. Fortunately, the last two races at COTA have been run in fair weather and in dry conditions, both giving us fantastic action that often comes down to the last lap. We hope to see that again this weekend in Austin. As an aide in driver determination for this event, the loop stats in the table below are from the last three Echopark Texas Grand Prix.

Three seasons ago we saw history made with NASCAR running their first-ever Cup Series event on the challenging COTA circuit. The event and weekend would be marred by bad weather, and the race would even be cut short of full distance, but the excitement and action would leave fans yelling for more. NASCAR renewed this event and for the last two seasons we have witnessed incredible racing action on the very technical Texas road course. This is the first road course event in the schedule and it will likely set the standard going forward for future road tracks that NASCAR will visit during the summer and fall.

Last season's Echopark Texas Grand Prix would come down to late cautions and NASCAR overtime. Tyler Reddick would overcome William Byron and survive several restarts to run away from Kyle Busch on the final restart. The 23XI Racing youngster would capture his first win at Circuit of the Americas, and it should be highly representative of what we witness this weekend in Austin. The road racing talents who often succeed were the usual faces at the front at the end. We'll look at the track, drivers and some parts of last season's race in order to give you the drivers you need to succeed in your fantasy racing games for the Echopark Texas Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas.    

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Ross Chastain – Chastain has been a consistent performer on road courses since moving to Trackhouse Racing a couple seasons ago, but no course better than the Circuit of the Americas. The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet has been thick in the middle of the outcome of the last three races at the Austin road course. Chastain broke through and took the victory in the 2022 installment after a thrilling last-lap battle with AJ Allmendinger and Alex Bowman. He's led 35 total laps at this facility and managed a stellar 3.0 average finish across his three starts at COTA. Chastain proved those performances were no fluke with his Top-10 finishes last season at the Charlotte ROVAL and at Sonoma. The Trackhouse Racing veteran is pretty good on typical road circuits, but he really elevates his game at COTA.           

Chase Elliott –  Despite being winless on road circuits the past couple seasons, we still have to pay major respect to Elliott and his road racing skills. He's a seven-time winner on NASCAR road circuits and carries an improbable 57-percent Top-5 rate on these style tracks. Even over his "lean" last couple seasons, Elliott has managed two pole positions, 118 laps led and five Top-5 finishes (56-percent). He hasn't broken through to win, but Elliott has clearly been a major factor in these races the last couple seasons. The Hendrick Motorsports star won at COTA in 2021 and he managed a strong fourth-place finish at the track in 2022. Elliott missed last season's Echopark Texas Grand Prix due to injury. He'll be in the mix to win Sunday at the Texas road course.    

Tyler Reddick – Reddick is one of the top road racing performers of the past few seasons. In the last 10 events alone, he's grabbed three wins, 153 laps led and eight Top-10 finishes for a stellar 9.7 average finish across the span. The 23XI Racing youngster won this event one year ago for his first COTA victory, in convincing fashion. Reddick now has one pole, 43 laps led, two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in his three starts at Circuit of the Americas. The average finish across those three starts is a microscopic 5.0 average finish. We've come to expect the No. 45 Toyota racing up front in these events, and we're certain Reddick will do so again this Sunday in Austin.  

Alex Bowman – Bowman is coming off a Top-5 Bristol finish and looking to keep the momentum going this week in Austin. The Hendrick Motorsports star is not really known for his road racing skills as all seven of his career victories have come on ovals. However, COTA has been a special exception for the driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet. Bowman has two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in his prior starts at Circuit of the Americas for a very sharp 4.3 average finish. He's been battling for the win in the closing laps of each of the previous three races at COTA. While he's probably not as good odds of winning as the three prior names in the contenders list, he's a great outside contender and he'll be racing among the leaders again Sunday at Circuit of the Americas.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kyle Busch – While road course racing isn't really his big niche, Busch has certain courses where he shines. The Richard Childress Racing star has performed well for years at the winding fast course at Watkins Glen, and COTA mimics many of those characteristics. He led 12 laps in the inaugural race at Austin to nab a Top 10 and returned last season to battle for the win and finish runner-up in the 2023 installment of the Echopark Texas Grand Prix. That brings his average finish to a respectable 13.3 at this facility and shows that he's battled among the leaders in two of the three prior events at this track. While the sample size is small, the 67-percent Top-10 rate is a good mark of what to expect in the future for this driver and team. Coming off a struggled-filled race at Bristol this past week, Busch will be hungry to win in Sunday's Echopark Texas Grand Prix.

Austin Cindric – The Penske Racing youngster has had his struggles on ovals, but road racing has always been his true gift. Cindric has 16 Top-10 finishes to this point in his Cup Series career and seven (44-percent) of those have come on the various road courses of NASCAR. As it relates to Austin, the driver of the No. 2 Ford has led 17 total laps there and grabbed two Top-10 finishes in his three starts. The average finish is checking in at a respectable 13.0 over the span. In this event one year ago, Cindric qualified a stellar third on the grid and raced to a strong sixth-place finish in the Echopark Texas Grand Prix. Given Cindric's success at COTA and in road racing generally speaking, we believe the No. 2 Ford team is lock for success in Austin this Sunday.   

Ty Gibbs – The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has started the season very well. He's riding a four-race Top-10 streak into Texas this week and has had success an array of different style tracks. Gibbs has just one-career Cup Series start at COTA and it was a very impressive ninth-place finish in this event one year ago. In his Xfinity Series career at Circuit of the Americas, the young driver has one pole position and one Top-5 finish in two starts. Clearly Gibbs has road racing skills as his 44-percent Top-10 rate and solid 13.6 average finish illustrate. To this very early point in his Cup Series career, the road circuits have been Gibbs' most successful and productive race tracks. That's a good sign heading to Austin this week.

William Byron – Byron is looking to rebound from his Bristol disappointment, and COTA is a good track to get the No. 24 Chevrolet team back inside the Top 10 column. The Hendrick Motorsports star was a good performer last season on the series' road courses with one win and three Top-10 finishes. Byron had his career-best COTA outing last season when he won the pole position, led 28 laps and finished fifth in last year's Echopark Texas Grand Prix. His 9.3 average finish across three starts in Austin speak to his consistency and improvement here. Considering how strong his last outing was at Circuit of the Americas and how fast he's been to start this season, Byron seems like a very good play for the first road course battle of 2024.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history of road course racing & solid upside

Chris Buescher – The driver of the No. 17 Ford has started the season reasonably well and now we come to a track to demonstrate his skill. Buescher was simply flawless on the road circuits last season. He piloted the RFK Ford very well on these tracks. Buescher would nab five Top 10's and post an impressive 7.8 average finish in the six road racing events of 2023. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing driver took some time to figure COTA out, but he did so in a big way last season. Buescher drove from 32nd-place on the starting grid to finish an impressive eighth-place in last year's Echopark Texas Grand Prix. The No. 17 team will be focused Sunday in the Echopark Texas Grand Prix.

Kyle Larson – Larson gets a bit of a downgrade this week going to the sleepers list, but he does still present some value on the winding Austin circuit. The Hendrick Motorsports star has one Top-10 and two Top-15 finishes in his prior COTA starts for a decent 15.0 average finish. Larson is not a big threat to win here, and he should be expected to do so. Still, his road racing ability is good enough forge a hard-fought Top 10. Larson grabbed three of those last season on NASCAR road circuits (50-percent) and earned a solid 12.2 average finish on these style tracks. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet is a model of consistency and that's why he's leading the points as we come to Texas this week.

AJ Allmendinger – The Kaulig Racing veteran gets the fantasy racing nod this weekend in the No. 13 Chevrolet. Allmendinger is an obvious choice. The veteran driver has a lot of experience and success in road course racing. Last season alone, Allmendinger grabbed one win (ROVAL) and three Top-10 finishes on these style tracks. It only added to a strong career record for him in this style of racing. Allmendinger has three-career Cup Series victories on road circuits, and he also boasts 11-career trophies on Xfinity Series road courses. In this event three years ago, the veteran driver peddled to an impressive fifth-place finish at Circuit of the Americas in the pouring rain. In this event two years ago, Allmendinger would battle for the win up until the final lap.   

Christopher Bell – Bell comes to Texas a lofty eighth in the overall driver standings after his win and three Top-10 finishes thus far. The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster was reasonably good in his road racing starts of last season. Bell earned three Top 10's for a 50-percent Top-10 rate and a good 14.2 average finish. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has crashed out of two of his prior three starts at Circuit of the Americas, but he has had good speed at this track. The other started netted an impressive third-place finish two seasons ago. We believe that Bell will show up this weekend for the Echopark Texas Grand Prix. This driver and team are on a good roll and should keep it going in Austin.

Michael McDowell – McDowell is a good road course performer. He grabbed one win and three Top-10 finishes last season on these style tracks. The Front Row Motorsports veteran has started the season reasonably well and has a pair of Top-10 finishes through the first five events. McDowell has earned one Top 10 and three Top 15's in his prior three starts at Circuit of the Americas. That works out to a pretty strong 10.7 average finish. The driver of the No. 34 Ford has been a consistent finisher on the lead lap and he's maintained a presence among the leaders in each of his three prior starts at COTA. We believe this driver and team are a great sleeper play for this road racing battle in Austin.

John Hunter Nemechek – With no prior Cup Series starts at COTA, Nemechek is likely the riskiest pick of the sleepers this week, but we have good reason to be optimistic. He's started this season well and comes to Austin this week a surprising 15th in the driver standings with two Top-10 finishes already this season. The young driver has just one Xfinity Series start at COTA so he's not rich with experience racing here. What Nemechek does have going for him is momentum and optimism. The driver of the No. 42 Toyota is coming off a shocking sixth-place finish at Bristol this past week and will ride that momentum into Austin this Sunday. We believe this is a young driver and team that is heading in the right direction.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Ryan Blaney – The reigning Cup Series champion has started the season well and sits fourth in the overall standings as we come to Austin this week. Blaney's not the top performer on road circuits that he is on ovals, and that's why we're fading him to the slow down list this week. The driver of the No. 12 Ford snagged just one Top-10 finish last season in six road course events for a lowly 17-percent Top-10 rate and 19.8 average finish. In addition, Blaney has had some struggles in his three COTA starts. He grabbed a Top-10 finish there in 2022, but his other two efforts have fallen short. His 21st-place finish in the Echopark Texas Grand Prix last season has weighed his average finish at the track down to 14.7. Blaney certainly has the skill to prove us wrong this weekend, but we believe he's a high-risk fantasy racing play at Circuit of the Americas.

Joey Logano – The veteran driver of the No. 22 Ford was a steady performer on road courses last season. Logano grabbed four Top-10 finishes on these winding circuits. However, the Penske Racing star is off to a terrible start to this season. He has just one Top-10 finish in the first five events and has seemed to find trouble at every turn to start this season. Logano has had difficulties at COTA as well. Despite good qualifying efforts he has just one Top-10 finish in his three prior starts and an inflated average finish of 20.7. For whatever reason, the rough and tumble racing experience at this track does not appeal to Logano and he's struggled here considerably. Given his current slump, we believe a good performance at COTA is a big ask of the No. 22 Ford team this week.

Denny Hamlin – Las Sunday's Bristol winner was a tough luck performer last season on the road circuits. Despite three pole positions and great qualifying efforts, the Joe Gibbs Racing star would earn just one Top 10 finish last season on these style tracks. The 20.2 average finish was really illustrative of the problems Hamlin had closing these races in 2023. As for Circuit of the Americas, the driver of the No. 11 Toyota has had his share of struggles here as well. Hamlin has no Top 10's in his three prior starts and just one Top-15 finish. He's had great difficulty qualifying, leading laps and being able to race among the leaders. We believe it all evidence that points to the fantasy racing bench this week.

Bubba Wallace – Wallace had his troubles at Bristol this past week, finishing a distant 29th-place. The 23XI Racing driver will look to rebound at Circuit of the Americas this week, however, it will be a tall task for the veteran driver. Wallace has just two Top-10 finishes in 27-career road course starts for a lowly 7-percent rate. The average finish is also higher than we'd like to see at 24.2. That's not even the start of the bad news. Wallace has crashed out of all three COTA starts to this point, finishing 39th-, 38th and 37th-place the last three seasons. He's yet to finish one of these races on the winding Austin circuit. We advise you keep Wallace benched this week and look for your fantasy racing help elsewhere.