Shriners Children's 500k Preview: The Desert Jewel

We stay out west this weekend and head from Nevada to Arizona to complete the west coast swing. This week NASCAR's top racing series stops at one of the more unique tracks on the circuit, Phoenix Raceway. The track at Avondale, Arizona is an irregular "D" shaped oval with very low, progressive banking in the corners of eight to 11 degrees. The straights are nearly flat at a lowly three degrees, and very fast as they carry off into the sweeping corners. This oval is vastly different than Daytona, Atlanta and Las Vegas. Phoenix boasts the high speeds that borders on intermediate ovals with the close confines of short track racing as well. As we have witnessed in the last several years, it's often the driver who brings the fastest car to the Arizona desert that walks away with the trophy. This race is typically marked by dominant performances, and very rarely by late momentum swings that catapult drivers into victory lane. The driver who has led the most laps at this oval has won seven of the last 10 Phoenix races. This is a trend that will likely continue this Sunday.

Since we are making our first stop of the season in the Arizona desert this week, we can only really look back on past statistics for Phoenix Raceway. This style of racing is a big departure from the standard ovals that we've spent the first three weeks of the season competing on. At this point we're tracking trends, but the change of racing style this week demands that we visit the historical numbers with some emphasis. The recent loop statistics at Phoenix Raceway will be the most important data we will examine this week. The historical trends at the Phoenix oval are as important as anywhere in the NASCAR Cup Series schedule. The loop stats in the table below cover the last 19 years or 38 races at Phoenix Raceway.

This is the first race at the Phoenix oval since last November when NASCAR's top division rolled into the Arizona desert to crown last season's champion. Ross Chastain would put on a dominant performance and lead 157 of the 312 laps that November afternoon. The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet would upstage the four championship contenders that day, and comfortably march into victory lane. Ryan Blaney would attempt to reel him in during the closing laps, but would finish runner-up instead. That finish would be good enough to crown Blaney last season's NASCAR Cup Series champion. Considering that we're just four, short months removed from that race, we have to look very closely at what happened in the Season Finale 500. That race and its data will be very fresh and relevant to this week's Shriners Children's 500k. Chastain's win gave Chevrolet the season-sweep at Phoenix and third victory for that manufacturer in the last five events at the Arizona oval. 

If Toyota hopes to climb back into top status at Phoenix Raceway, their hopes will primarily ride with Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin. The duo were the strongest Toyota drivers in both Phoenix races last season, although not major factors in the outcome of those events. If Ford hopes to retake the reins of Phoenix, their big hitters will be Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano. Logano is a three-time winner at Phoenix Raceway, and as recently as 2022. Blaney has never won at the Arizona short track, but he has taken three consecutive runner-up finishes at the Phoenix oval and has been painfully close to breaking through the last couple seasons. We'll have to keep a close eye on Chris Buescher as well, as he too could stir up some trouble for the other manufacturers. He finished fifth-place after leading 18 laps last November and is in need of a big performance this weekend. We'll highlight the teams mentioned above, and some others who will be vying for the win at Phoenix Raceway.  

The Contenders – Those in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – Coming off the big win at Las Vegas this past Sunday, Larson and the No. 5 Chevrolet team have a lot of momentum rolling into the Arizona desert this week. The one-time Phoenix winner rides a three-race Phoenix Top-10 streak into this weekend's action. Larson's last performance at this track netted a strong third-place finish in the Championship Finale 500 last November. In this event one year ago, the Hendrick Motorsports star won the pole and led 201 laps before fading to fourth-place. That effort has lifted Larson's career Top-10 rate at Phoenix to a strong 63-percent. He also cracks the Top 5 at this oval at an impressive 42-percent rate. It's really surprising that he's only grabbed one-career victory at this race track. However, that could easily change by Sunday evening. Larson and his race team are heating up right now. 

Ryan Blaney – Blaney finished an impressive third-place last Sunday in Las Vegas and now carries a two-race Top-5 streak into Arizona this weekend. He'll look to capitalize on some recent gains and success he's had on the Avondale oval. Phoenix Raceway had been a bit of a mixed bag for the driver of the No. 12 Ford up until just recently. Blaney rides a stellar five-race Phoenix Top-5 streak into Sunday. The last three of those have been runner-up finishes with 111 combined laps led. The recent heater has elevated the Penske Racing star's stats at Phoenix Raceway to a strong 44-percent Top-5 rate and 69-percent Top-10 rate with impressive 11.3 average finish. Somehow, Blaney is still winless at this desert oval, but that very well could change after Sunday's Shriners Children's 500.  

William Byron – The winner of this event one year ago easily makes the contenders list this week. Byron led 64 laps in this event last season and took his first-career Phoenix win to the bank. He won the pole, led 95 laps and finished fourth at this oval last November, so Byron had a pretty stellar season at this track in 2023. Phoenix Raceway gives Byron another opportunity to shine. The Arizona oval has yielded Top-10 finishes to the No. 24 Chevrolet team in their last three starts and that has boosted Byron's Top-10 rate at this facility to a strong 58-percent. The 11.3 average finish across 12-career starts is also at a very good level. Byron should factor in the outcome of the Shriners Children's 500.

Ross Chastain – Our last Phoenix victor brings up the bottom of the contenders list this week. Last November, Chastain led a dominating 157 laps and upstaged the championship contenders to take the win at Phoenix Raceway. Until his move to Trackhouse Racing in 2022, Chastain really hadn't made much of an impression at this desert short track. However, since taking the seat of the No. 1 Chevrolet, Chastain has grabbed one win, and three Top-3 finishes in his last four Phoenix Raceway starts. The veteran driver has been slugging it out for the win in each of these last four Phoenix events, with the exception of just one. Chastain is a driver to watch closely Sunday in this 312-lap battle.  

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kyle Busch – The Richard Childress Racing star is looking to rebound from his disappointing finish at Las Vegas last Sunday. The No. 8 Chevrolet team isn't completely focused yet, but they're quickly moving in that direction. Busch is a three-time winner at Phoenix, and two of those victories have come since 2018 at the Phoenix oval. In fact, he's been zeroed-in at this track for quite some time. Busch has four Top 10's in his last five Phoenix starts coming into this weekend's action at the Desert Jewel. Recent efforts have boosted his Top-10 rate at the Arizona short track to a lofty 70-percent. Busch has led close to 1,200 laps for his career at Phoenix Raceway, so he knows what it takes to run up front here and secure wins.

Joey Logano – The driver of the No. 22 Ford is a three-time Phoenix winner and as recently as the fall of 2022. It marks a surge in performance for Logano at this facility in recent visits. The Penske Racing star has led a combined 612 laps in his last nine starts at Phoenix Raceway. He's also cracked the Top 10 in seven of his last 10 starts at the Arizona short track heading into Sunday's action. Since the 2020 season alone he's compiled two wins and one runner-up finish at the Desert Jewel. That has boosted his career Top-5 rate at this track to a strong 27-percent. Logano is a great candidate to crack the Top 10 and be an outside challenger to win in the Shriners Children's 500k.  

Tyler Reddick – With his runner-up finish this past week at Las Vegas, Reddick has signaled he's ready to turn things up a notch now that we're entering the short track/intermediate oval portion of this season's schedule. The 23XI Racing youngster hasn't been a world beater at Phoenix Raceway, but he's had some notable success in recent starts. Two of his last four efforts at the Arizona oval have netted a pair of third-place finishes. Both have come in the spring events, which bodes well for this weekend's Shriners Children's 500. He's also not been a big lap leader here, but Reddick seems to qualify reasonably well and that's a big factor at this smaller oval. Coming off the momentum of his big Las Vegas performance, we expect big things for Reddick this Sunday.  

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has been one of the best short track drivers in the series the last several seasons. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota has two-career Phoenix victories to his credit. The last came in his start here in the Fall of 2019. Hamlin cracks the Top 5 in 43-percent of his starts at Phoenix Raceway. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has led over 850 laps for his career at Phoenix, and he's usually no worse than a Top-10 finisher. Five of Hamlin's last seven efforts at this Arizona oval have all netted Top-10 finishes, including a steady eighth-place last November. It's pretty clear that he simply loves racing at this short track. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has had a bit of a slow start to the 2024 season, but this is a race and an oval that can get him back in the Top-10 column this Sunday afternoon.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Phoenix & solid upside

Chris Buescher – Phoenix Raceway isn't one of Buescher's top statistical ovals. In fact, he labored here for several years before earning his first Top 10 at the track in early 2022. However, since then the Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran has nabbed two Top-10 finishes in his last four Phoenix starts. Last November Buescher led 18 laps and rode home to an impressive fifth-place finish in the Championship Finale 500. That is his best-career performance at Phoenix Raceway to this point. Buescher has had a bumpy start to his 2024 campaign, however, he has qualified well to this point which is a good sign. A rebound to better form should be in store for this driver and team in the Shriners Children's 500.       

Chase Briscoe – Briscoe had a three-race Top-10 streak at Phoenix broken last November when the Stewart Haas Racing driver rode to a subpar 24th-place in last season's Season Finale 500. Prior to that Briscoe had a victory (2022) and three Top-10 finishes at the Desert Jewel. We believe he loves this particular short track and are willing to write off last November as an outlier. As proof, we offer Briscoe's Xfinity Series career record at the Phoenix track. He was four-for-four in starts/Top 10's at the facility prior to his promotion to the Cup Series in 2021. The 7.3 average finish across those four performances is nothing short of stellar. We expect big things for Briscoe this weekend in Phoenix.

Christopher Bell – Despite Bell's third-place Daytona 500 effort, the season has not gone well to this point for the driver of the No. 20 Toyota. Big disappointments at both Atlanta and Las Vegas have buried him pretty far down the driver point standings. Bell will look to rebound at Phoenix Raceway this Sunday. His 50-percent Top-10 rate at this Arizona short track is difficult to ignore. In this event one year ago, Bell qualified a strong fifth on the starting grid and rode his Toyota to an impressive sixth-place finish. The young Joe Gibbs Racing star knows how to navigate this unusual short track. Bell's Xfinity Series career at Phoenix netted two poles, over 250 laps led, one victory and three Top-5 finishes. He's a good rebound candidate in the Shriners Children's 500.  

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex hasn't exactly started the season in race-winning form. However, he slugged it out to an impressive seventh-place finish at Las Vegas this past week. Phoenix Raceway hasn't been an oval of dominance for Truex, thus the sleeper tag this week. He won this event three years ago, and he finished runner-up at Phoenix Raceway that same Fall. Those performances built on some recent success for the driver of the No. 19 Toyota at this track. With a career Top-10 rate hovering around 42-percent and average finish of 15.3, Phoenix has not been a bad facility for Truex. His last start at the track last November netted a steady sixth-place finish. We should see a similar performance this weekend.

Daniel Suarez – With a win at Atlanta two weeks ago and respectable 11th-place finish at Las Vegas this past Sunday, the season couldn't have started any better for Suarez. The driver of the No. 99 Chevrolet is a mid-level performer at Phoenix Raceway. However, we have good reason to believe this time around will be different for the veteran driver. Suarez finished ninth-place in this event two seasons ago, and he nabbed a respectable 11th-place finish at Phoenix last November. Those two recent performances have helped to boost his career numbers at Phoenix Raceway. Suarez will have good notes from that November outing and should use them to good effect in Sunday's Shriners Children's 500k.

Bubba Wallace – Despite the bad luck and tough finish at Las Vegas this past week, we're calling for the No. 23 Toyota team to rebound this week at Phoenix Raceway. Wallace had good speed and qualified well at Vegas, but ran into some problems not of his making in the Pennzoil 400. This driver and team claimed 14th- and 10th-place finishes at Phoenix Raceway last season, bucking Wallace's historical trends. The Top 10 came in the Season Finale 500 last November, so that performance is relevant and fresh. The 23XI Racing team has started the season well and should carry that momentum into Arizona this week for the fourth race of the 2024 season.   

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Brad Keselowski – Despite having reasonably good career statistics at Phoenix Raceway, Keselowski has really struggled at this track since moving from Penske to Roush a couple seasons ago. The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford has just one Top-15 finish in his last four trips to the Arizona desert and an average finish of 22.8 across that span. Those figures fall short of his 45-percent Top-10 rate and reasonably good 13.9 average finish career marks at Phoenix Raceway. Considering that Keselowski and this race team have had a rough start to the season through three races, it's probably best to keep this driver and team on the fantasy bench this week for the Shriners Children's 500k.      

Chase Elliott – While the season hasn't gotten off to a rough start, it's hasn't come exactly firing out of the gates either for Elliott and the No. 9 team. Three Top-15 finishes have been the best he can muster to this point, without much in the way of laps led or real threats to penetrate the Top 5. That's uncharacteristic for this "A tier" driver and team. We head to Phoenix this week and as you can see from the loop data chart, Elliott has really carved this small oval up during his nine-season career. The driver rating is off the charts and he spends a lot of time racing up front here. However, the last two trips to the Arizona desert have gone anywhere but smooth for this Hendrick Motorsports star. Elliott has not qualified particularly well, led zero laps and has finishes of 28th- and 16th-place. We recommend holding off on Elliott for a bit until he shows some better performance.                                                                                                   

Alex Bowman – Bowman is not a historically strong performer at Phoenix Raceway so we've slotted him in the slow down list this week. With just two Top-10 finishes in 17-career starts at the flat short track, his 12-percent Top-10 rate is well lower than the norm. The 22.5 average finish also lags well behind most of the field. After a strong runner-up finish in the Daytona 500, Bowman has stumbled to 27th- and 18th-place finishes the last two events, so you could say the No. 48 team is reeling coming into this weekend. This is not a good track for Bowman and his current state of affairs are not very reassuring. There are better fantasy racing options in the field this weekend for this 312-lap battle in the desert.  

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The veteran driver of the No. 47 Chevrolet came back to Earth with his 17th-place finish at Las Vegas this past Sunday on the heels of his Atlanta Top 10. Stenhouse will now look to rebound on a tougher oval this Sunday in Phoenix. The JTG Daugherty Racing veteran has struggled at Phoenix Raceway over the years. In 22-career starts he has just two Top-10 finishes (9-percent) and an average finish of 21.6. Last season Stenhouse struggled to 19th- and 23rd-place finishes at the Desert Jewel. This is one short track that he's never been able to solve. This driver and team are much more well known for their superspeedway performance than short track prowess. We don't have a very optimistic outlook for Stenhouse this weekend.