This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Shriners Children's 500
Location: Avondale, Ariz.
Course: Phoenix Raceway
Format: 1.0-mile oval
Laps: 312
Race Preview
The NASCAR Cup Series takes on its second west-coast race of the year in a return to Phoenix Raceway this weekend, where Ryan Blaney captured the 2023 series championship last fall while Ross Chastain grabbed the race win. The race comes one week after Kyle Larson took the checkered flag at Las Vegas to join teammate William Byron in the playoff positions. For the three race winners so far this season, the Phoenix stop presents the best opportunity to assess where they stand should they make it all the way through the playoff gauntlet to race for the championship this fall. For the rest of the field, that work will be secondary to their ambitions of joining those race winners in the playoffs with a race win this Sunday. Chevrolet drivers swept the wins at the track last season, while Ford captured the two wins the season before. Only one driver has won when starting outside of the top 10 at the track in the last five years, and teams know they'll have to be at their best quickly this weekend to have their best chance at adding their names to the list of playoff contenders.
Key Stats at Phoenix Raceway
- Number of races: 55
- Winners from pole: 7
- Winners from top-5 starters: 22
- Winners from top-10 starters: 32
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 4
- Fastest race: 118.132 mph
Previous 10 Phoenix Winners
2023 fall - Ross Chastain
2023 spring - William Byron
2022 fall - Joey Logano
2022 spring - Chase Briscoe
2021 fall - Kyle Larson
2021 spring - Martin Truex Jr.
2020 fall - Chase Elliott
2020 spring - Joey Logano
2019 fall - Denny Hamlin
2019 spring - Kyle Busch
Phoenix Raceway is the current home of the championship decider. That spot on the calendar has placed extra emphasis on the spring race as teams hone their setups and strategies at the venue in hopes of returning in the fall to race for the title. The circuit falls into the 1.0-mile oval category, but it has its own character. Differing turns and banking throughout the lap demand a compromise setup. The track is relatively flat and offers many options for drivers to adjust their lines to suit their car. Track position is a critical factor overall, though. Most winners come from the top 10 starting positions, and two-tire stops late in the race can pay dividends for teams that gamble. Being at the front for the start and late restarts could be the key to victory Sunday afternoon. William Byron and Ross Chastain won the two races at the track last season. While a driver's past statistics at this track are fairly indicative of their potential for this race, the practice and qualifying times ahead of Sunday's race are still significant inputs to consider. Only two drivers starting 15th or lower finished inside the top 10 last fall, and only four did so in the spring running.
RotoWire NASCAR DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Shriners Children's 500 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kyle Larson - $11,500
Ryan Blaney - $11,200
William Byron - $11,000
Denny Hamlin - $10,500
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Martin Truex Jr. - $9,800
Joey Logano - $9,200
Ross Chastain - $9,000
Chase Elliott - $8,800
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Tyler Reddick - $8,500
Chris Buescher - $8,300
Ty Gibbs - $8,000
Chase Briscoe - $7,800
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Alex Bowman - $7,500
Daniel Suarez - $7,300
Josh Berry - $7,200
Noah Gragson - $6,600
NASCAR DFS Picks for the Shriners Children's 500
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Ryan Blaney - $11,200
Ross Chastain - $9,000
Ty Gibbs - $8,000
Alex Bowman - $7,500
Daniel Suarez - $7,300
Erik Jones - $7,000
Before you even consider Ryan Blaney's (DK $11,200, FD $13,500) championship-winning effort at Phoenix last fall, you can see he has a history of running well at the track. Despite not yet winning there, Blaney finished finished second in his last three starts, in the top five the last five times, and in the top 10, 11 out of 16 times. Even before seeing Blaney's practice times this weekend, he offers an attractive option for fantasy rosters. Ross Chastain (DK $9,000, FD $12,000) also has a successful record at Phoenix. He won the fall race last season and finished third or better in three of the last four races.
Ty Gibbs (DK $8,000, FD $8,200) is a driver fantasy players should keep an eye on through practice and qualifying. His prior two series starts at this track both ended with finishes outside of the top 20, but he won at Phoenix in the Xfinity Series. He enters the weekend inside the top 10 in the championship standings and with two straight top-10 finishes from the last two weeks. Alex Bowman (DK $7,500, FD $7,200) is a little further back in the standings, but he is still worthy of consideration at this week's price. He is another to watch practice and qualifying pace before settling on starting him, but the price point for a proven race winner in Hendrick Motorsports equipment offers a potential bargain.
Daniel Suarez (DK $7,300, FD $7,000) is one of the three drivers that may have more focus on the fall Phoenix visit versus this week. While the bigger picture is the championship, an ideal step toward that is running well this weekend. Suarez finished 11th last week at Las Vegas and has two finishes of 11th from his four most recent Phoenix starts. Another bargain with the potential to outperform his price point this week is Erik Jones (DK $7,000, FD $6,500). Jones led 14 laps in this race last season and started inside the top 10 in both visits last year. He has one top-five and four top-10s from 15 track starts and currently sits inside the playoff positions in the standings with two finishes inside the top 15 from the first three races of 2024.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Christopher Bell - $10,000
Chase Elliott - $8,800
Tyler Reddick - $8,500
Chris Buescher - $8,300
Chase Briscoe - $7,800
Noah Gragson - $6,6000
This week's higher-risk lineup takes a gamble of drivers that haven't quite had the luck they need yet in 2024. Christopher Bell (DK $10,000, FD $11,500) has had a miserable two races since Daytona. After starting the season with a valuable third-place finish, he has failed to finish in the top 30 and had trouble in the last two. His Phoenix results have followed a similar pattern. Despite four top-10s from eight career starts, he crashed out in the championship race. Bell has the speed, both this season and at this track, to win, but he needs the pieces to come together for him to do so. Chase Elliott (DK $8,800, FD $9,500) hasn't won since October of 2022. He missed the playoffs last season and only has a best finish of 12th so far this season. However, he is a proven champion who won at Phoenix in 2020 to earn that title. He finished 16th there last fall and should be a top-10 contender, if not the top-five, this week again. Last week's visit to Las Vegas was so close for Tyler Reddick (DK $8,500, FD $9,000). He finished second to Kyle Larson in both stages but couldn't find the advantage he needed to make the pass for the win. He has a pair of third-place finishes at Phoenix, and like the other selections before him, just needs a little more to make the turn into Victory Lane.
The next three choices in this lineup have also shown plenty of potential but have yet to fully cash in on it. Chris Buescher (DK $8,300, FD $7,800) finished in the top 10 at Atlanta and led laps there and Las Vegas. However, his average finish in the first three races this season is just 21.3. Considering Buescher led 18 laps and finished fifth at Phoenix last season, he makes a chance worthy of taking this week again, though. Chase Briscoe (DK $7,800, FD $8,000) started rediscovering the great form he had in early 2023 last fall. That progress has extended into this season with two starts inside the top 10 and one top-10 finish. He clearly has competitive pace and just needs to keep putting full races together. Phoenix should be a good opportunity for him to do so considering his 2022 win there along with two other top-10s from six starts. Teammate Noah Gragson (DK $6,600, FD $6,000) is on a return to form. His best finish with his new team came last week when he finished an impressive sixth after gaining track position for the final restart of the race. That was his second top-10 of the season, too. Gragson is not one to sleep on. Last year's 29th-place finish in this race does not reflect his potential this week.
