This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
The start of race season is upon us, and with that, we'll introduce a new set of articles this year that offers selections of PrizePicks for each weekend's NASCAR Cup Series and F1 races (when applicable). Before we jump into our Daytona 500 preview, it's worth providing a brief evergreen overview of the PrizePicks format.
Introduction to PrizePicks
The most common type of offering on the site sets a point total for each driver, and the user then simply selects either higher or lower. At least two selections must be made simultaneously, with the following payouts being offered: two selections = 3X payout; three selections= 5X payout; four selections= 10 X payout. Increasing to five selections doesn't increase the top payout, but it does provide some insurance to users, as getting three out of five correct will result in the return of 40 percent of the entry fee. Getting four out of five correct will bring back 2X money. For those who wish to make six selections, the payout jumps to 25X. Getting five of six correct will return 2X, and four of six correct returns 40 percent of the entry fee.
As for scoring, finishing place is most important. First place is worth 40 points, with each subsequent position worth one point fewer. Drivers are also either docked or awarded points based on the difference between their starting and finishing positions. Each position gained or lost is worth one point. Finally, each lap led is worth 0.25 points and a fastest lap is worth 0.45 points.
In addition to individual points mentioned, there are offerings for a driver's laps led, fastest laps and positions gained or lost.
Without further ado, it's time to highlight some of our favorite picks for the opening weekend of the NASCAR season, and one of the biggest events on the sport's calendar.
The Picks
Chase Elliott – Over 25.5 Fantasy Points
Elliott's 2023 season was defined by a snowboarding injury that cost him seven races, which played a significant role in him missing the postseason. He'll be in for a bounce back this year, and he's historically enjoyed plenty of success at Superspeedways. In six races at Daytona since 2021, he's finished in the top ten on four occasions and top five two additional times. That gives him a strong chance for at least 34 points (10th-place finish), and his fifth-place start means that alone would be enough to put him over his point total.
We don't need to rely solely on history to feel comfortable taking the over on Elliott, as he's been fast throughout the week. He qualified fifth on Wednesday and then finished second in the Duel 1, clearly showing he has pace in his Chevrolet to begin the season.
Martin Truex Jr. – Under 45.5 Fantasy Points
We can take the inverse of everything that was said about Elliott and apply it to Truex. For all of his well-deserved accolades, he doesn't have a good track record at Daytona, or Superspeedways in general. His average finish at Daytona and Talladega is only 19.4 since 2021, with only one top-five finish and two top-10 finishes in 12 opportunities.
His struggles have continued this week, and he'll begin the race 27th. That low starting position is the only concern I'd have about him topping this number, because he could rack up points quickly by climbing up the field. Without leading a lap or logging a fastest lap, he'd have to finish 12th to top 45.5 points, yet he has an average finish of 19.0 at Daytona in the last three years.
Other Toyota Drivers
In addition to extra track time and entertainment, the other benefit to the Daytona 500 weekend setup is that we get a sample of which teams and car manufacturers are excelling. So far, Toyota has looked exceptionally fast. The car was redesigned over the winter to have a flatter nose, which should be a benefit on a drafting/pushing track like Daytona. After generally poor showings in qualifying, they flew up the field in each Duel, with Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell earning wins. In Duel 2, three of the top four finishers were driving Toyotas.
Denny Hamlin (32.5), Bell (24.5), Bubba Wallace (45.5), Ty Gibbs (34.5) and Reddick (20.5) all have numbers available on PrizePicks. Wallace and Hamlin stand out as options to target on the over. Across the last six races at Daytona, no racer has led more laps than Hamlin (136). He's not quite as comfortable of a click as Elliott, but the overall pace in Toyotas and Hamlin's form in races we've seen early on in 2024 still makes him a solid choice.
Wallace is another driver with a strong track record on Superspeedways, and he has an average finish of 12.9 at Daytona during his career – finishing inside the top 20 in 12 of his 13 races. He was actually one of the Toyotas that disappointed during Duel 2 (starting 24th), but his fortunes should change on Sunday.
Reddick would be my pick to go under in this group.
Joey Logano – over 15.5 laps led and over 25.5 points
Logano locked himself into pole position in qualifying Wednesday night and has led the third most laps at the track since 2021 (99). Because he's starting atop the field, he has a modest point total, but this is where some of the peripheral ways that drivers can earn points comes into play. Simply calculating the points for finishing position and position differential, Logano would need to finish ninth for him to hit his over. That's a bit uncomfortable given the unpredictability of Superspeedways, but he should gain some additional wiggle room by leading laps. That gives me enough confidence to say he hits the over.
It is worth bringing up the history of pole sitters in recent years, and it isn't exactly pretty. Alex Bowman had that title in the winter race at Daytona in both 2023 and 2021, yet he led only 12 and one laps in those races, respectively. Kyle Larson was on pole in 2022 and led just a single lap. Recent history isn't on Logano's side, but he's shown the ability to lead the pack on this track.
For those who disagree with that assessment, it's perfectly reasonable to take both under on both of these selections. Whichever side users end up selecting, it's worth correlating these picks as PrizePicks allows both to be selected.
