This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Ambetter Health 400
Location: Hampton, Ga.
Course: Atlanta Motor Speedway
Format: 1.5-mile quad-oval
Laps: 260
NASCAR Ambetter Health 400 Race Preview
Less than one week after William Byron captured the first race win of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season the teams are back to superspeedway racing at Atlanta Motor Speedway in the Ambetter Health 400. Last time out at the Georgia track was also Byron's day as he won the second of the 2023 season's two Atlanta stops. Track changes two seasons ago made the 1.5-mile quad-oval more reminiscent of Daytona and Talladega than the other 1.5-mile ovals that play such a prominent role in the schedule. Therefore, fantasy players are expecting another pack-style race this Sunday before the field reaches a more more traditional 1.5-mile oval in Las Vegas. Joey Logano, who had one of the best cars a week ago, won at Atlanta last spring. Given the newer nature of Atlanta's racing, drivers like Logano, teammate Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, and other top aces in the draft should be top considerations for lineups this week, especially considering how quick each of them were last time out at Daytona.
Key Stats at Atlanta Motor Speedway
- Number of races: 119
- Winners from pole: 16
- Winners from top-5 starters: 64
- Winners from top-10 starters: 92
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 8
- Fastest race: 166.633 mph
Previous 10 Atlanta Winners
2023 fall - William Byron
2023 spring - Joey Logano
2022 fall - Chase Elliott
2022 spring - William Byron
2021 fall - Kurt Busch
2021 spring - Ryan Blaney
2020 - Kevin Harvick
2019 - Brad Keselowski
2018 - Kevin Harvick
2017 - Brad Keselowski
The closer racing Atlanta produced since its reconfiguration creates the packs of traffic that challenge drivers to be inch perfect every moment and perhaps even more so here than the other superspeedways. Atlanta's shorter lap distance and narrower circuit means less margin or error and has produced more cautions as a result. Climbing forward through the tight pack is equally important to driver success, though. Making the moves to do so is more challenging given the lack of space and the rate at which turns come on the 1.5-mile oval. One of the best opportunities to gain track position is through quick work on pit road. That is often the easiest way to gain track position and it can mean the difference between winning and losing this Sunday. The shorter track and faster rate of action puts a greater emphasis on being toward the front of the field than at the larger Daytona and Talladega ovals. Qualifying will be important, and teams that don't qualify well will have more work to do on Sunday.
RotoWire NASCAR DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Ambetter Health 400 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Denny Hamlin - $10,500
Joey Logano - $10,300
Ryan Blaney - $10,200
William Byron - $10,000
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Chase Elliott - $9,800
Kyle Busch - $9,700
Kyle Larson - $9,500
Brad Keselowski - $9,300
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Bubba Wallace - $8,800
Ross Chastain - $8,600
Alex Bowman - $8,200
Erik Jones - $8,000
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Ty Gibbs - $7,800
Austin Dillon - $7,100
Austin Cindric - $7,000
John Hunter Nemechek - $6,200
NASCAR DFS Picks for the Ambetter Health 400
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Denny Hamlin - $10,500
Chase Elliott - $9,800
Ross Chastain - $8,600
Ty Gibbs - $7,800
Austin Dillon - $7,100
John Hunter Nemechek - $6,200
Denny Hamlin (DK $10,500, FD $14,000) was one of the favorites to win last week at Daytona, and it is no surprise that he would be a favorite again this week at Atlanta. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver seems comfortable and quick in the new Toyota body style, and Hamlin could leverage that to drive to his second Atlanta win this week. Hometown hero Chase Elliott (DK $9,800, FD $12,000) will not be far behind, though. While Toyota and Ford stole the headlines leading up to the Daytona 500, it was Chevrolet and Elliott's teammate that took the big prize. Chevrolet and Hendrick were among the best during the race, and coming home to Atlanta should put extra spring in Elliott's step. He won the fall race in 2022 and has led 164 laps in 10 starts at the track.
Another driver that was within reach of last week's win was Ross Chastain (DK $8,600, FD $9,000). Chastain may be a driver fantasy players look at with higher expectations versus last season, and his initial showing at Daytona seems to prove those expectations aren't unfounded. He finished second in both Atlanta races in 2022 and could be poised for another top result if he can avoid trouble. Ty Gibbs (DK $7,800, FD $6,800) is carrying increased expectations in 2024, too. The second-year driver should be expected to visit Victory Lane this season, and why not at Atlanta? He worked into the top 10 a week ago at Daytona before involvement in crashes, and he finished ninth in this race last season.
On the other end of the spectrum is a driver looking to make up ground quickly. Austin Dillon (DK $7,100, FD $6,000), a former Daytona 500 winner, was caught in an early crash last week that left him deep in the order. He remains one of the better drivers in superspeedway-style races, though. Dillon and Richard Childress Racing are almost always competitive at these tracks, he'll just need to stay in the race all the way to the finish in order to capitalize on that and deliver fantasy managers a top finish.
At this point, fantasy players should also be taking note of John Hunter Nemechek (DK $6,200, FD $4,800). He has returned to the series for 2024 with Legacy Motor Club, but has already proven himself on superspeedways. He finished fourth in his qualifying duel at Daytona and then went on to finish seventh in the big race. Atlanta can also work as an equalizer for equipment, which gives someone like Nemechek an outsized opportunity to impress.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Joey Logano - $10,300
Bubba Wallace - $8,800
Alex Bowman - $8,200
Erik Jones - $8,000
Michael McDowell - $7,700
Austin Cindric - $7,000
Atlanta's higher-risk lineup leans more toward drivers that had the pace to run up front at Daytona but didn't quite get the result they wanted. Joey Logano (DK $10,300, FD $12,500) is the prime example. He won the pole and led 45 laps before crashing out on Sunday. His speed was unquestionable, but his result was bad luck. Logano won this week's race last season and should be one of the favorites to win again on Sunday. Bubba Wallace (DK $8,800, FD $9,500) is also not one to ignore on superspeedways. These tracks are where he is at his best, and last week's fifth-place finish is further evidence. Wallace's risk this week is that he has yet to score a top-10 finish at this particular track, though he did lead five laps in the race last fall. Daytona 500 runner-up Alex Bowman (DK $8,200, FD $8,000) is another formidable option. Last season was a disappointment from him for several reasons, but he is starting 2024 at the front. Bowman finished 10th in the spring race here in 2022 and was 14th last season.
Further down the order, fantasy players should take notice of Erik Jones (DK $8,000, FD $7,200). The Legacy Motor Club team as a whole were quite competitive at Daytona. Jones was among the top 10 at several points in the race and brought home an eighth-place finish. He was also fifth in his qualifying duel. Those results plus three straight finishes of 11th or better at this week's track make him one to look out for. Michael McDowell (DK $7,700, FD $6,500) also deserves a look. A longer first pit stop foiled his front-row starting position in last week's race, but McDowell and Front Row Motorsports remain fast at superspeedways. McDowell's best Atlanta finishes have come since the reconfiguration and include his best ever result at the track, fourth in last fall's race. Similarly, Austin Cindric's (DK $7,000, FD $7,500) capability on superspeedways is not one to pass over this week. He was in the mix for the win late last week, but fell afoul of bad superspeedway luck. He finished 12th or better and led laps in each of the last three Atlanta races, though.
