NASCAR Barometer: Shane Van Gisbergen Wins In First NASCAR Start

Heavy rain threatened to ruin NASCAR's first street course race in the heart of downtown Chicago, but the action on track did not disappoint. Trackhouse Racing's Project 91 announced last month it would bring three-time Australian Supercars champion Shane Van Gisbergen to the NASCAR Cup Series for the race, but no one expected what he was able to accomplish on Chicago's wet and dry surface. The New Zealander impressed in qualifying and then started Sunday's race strongly, chasing early leader Christopher Bell and running confidently inside the top 10. Things changed in the final stage as NASCAR shortened the race distance to 75 laps amid deteriorating light, though. Mired back in 18th position could have been the end of Van Gisbergen's story, but he stormed back through the field in the final miles, putting himself into position to race for the win in the final laps. His driving was a showcase that forced everyone to take notice as he carved his way forward and made his pass for the win stick on lap 71. From there he pulled away to become the first driver to win their NASCAR Cup Series debut since 1963. He was also the first road course specialist to win a one-off start since Mark Donahue in 1973. 

It will be hard to top Van Gisbergen's and NASCAR's remarkable day in Chicago, but the 2023 championship rolls onward to Atlanta Motor Speedway this weekend. Joey Logano won on the fast 1.5-mile oval in March, his only win of the season so far. The tight confines, high speeds, and pack-style racing is a hectic affair and could make opportunities for more unexpected results. The coming race is one of eight remaining chances for drivers to win their way into the season-defining playoffs.

UPGRADE

Shane Van Gisbergen - Van Gisbergen's win Sunday evening at Chicago was the first time since Johnny Rutherford won at Daytona in 1963 that a driver won a Cup Series race in his first start. The New Zealander was fast all weekend and impressed early by qualifying third. When interviewed, he said the competition would catch up with him, but Sunday evening that proved not to be the case. The Supercars ace led just nine laps, but his charge at the end of the shortened race from 18th to the lead was nothing short of amazing to watch. Once back into the top five he made quick work of the leaders to lead the final eight laps, including the overtime restart, to win in the most successful NASCAR debut in 60 years. When asked after the race if he would consider NASCAR full-time in the future, he indicated after one more year in Supercars he would be open to a potential switch. 

Christopher Bell - The race may not have ended the way Bell would have liked, but he was the driver to beat early in the running. He qualified fourth and worked his way into the lead in the tricky conditions on lap nine. Bell went on to win both opening stages, collecting the valuable playoff points that come with those segment victories. As pit strategy cycled through the field in the final stage Bell found himself mired in traffic with the rest of the early leaders. Moving through that traffic was tricky and like so many others, Bell ran afoul of the narrow dry line and slid into the barriers. The No. 20 machine remained one of the fastest on track and regrouped to finish the race in 18th position. Bell remains sixth in the championship standings with a race win and is working toward those championship elimination races. He led six laps and finished third at Atlanta earlier this season, which was his best finish yet at the speedway.

Austin Cindric – Cindric's road racing skills were on display last weekend. The Team Penske driver is no stranger to success at these tracks from his Xfinity Series days, and he brought the same approach to Chicago Sunday. The weekend didn't start brightly, though. A disappointing qualifying effort put him 31st at the start. However, pit strategy and few, if any, mistakes on the wet and dry surface enabled him to finish an impressive sixth. It was his third top-10 finish of the season and first since visiting Circuit of the Americas back in March. The top finish might have come at the perfect moment, too. Another track configuration Cindric has proven himself is the superspeedway format. Cindric won his first Cup Series race in the Daytona 500 and Atlanta's style of racing is now very similar. In fact, he finished 11th there last time, just before picking up that COTA top-10. The coming week will tell whether or not Cindric has officially busted his 2023 slump.

Chase Elliott - Sitting third on NASCAR's all-tie road course winner's list makes Elliott a favorite every time one appears on the schedule. Despite that noteriety, Elliott was honest after practice that he was lost on the unique circuit and not even confident enough in himself to question the car. Things got worse when he crashed in qualifying, forcing him to a back-up car for the race. That's where things turned around, though. An off-strategy approach enabled him to flip the final stage, gaining significant track position inside the top five for the final 20 or so laps to the finish. That dose of track position was what he needed as he held station behind Justin Haley and then Shane Van Gisbergen in those final miles to turn an otherwise difficult weekend into his fifth top-five finish of the season. Elliott still needs a race win to get into the playoffs, but overcoming last weekend's adversity for a top-five is indication he can still get the job done.

Michael McDowell - Sunday's road course visit presented an opportunity for McDowell and he took it. The Front Row Motorsports driver typically outperforms expectations on those tracks and did so again Sunday at Chicago. His seventh-place finish came from the sixth starting position, and he spent the vast majority of the day in the top 10. He grabbed stage points in both segments and walked away with his third top-10 finish from the last four races. Those finishes have put him 20th in the championship standings, just 26 points out of the playoffs. Superspeedways are another one of McDowell's strong suits. He has never scored a top-10 at Atlanta, but the new configuration should give him hopes of continuing his current momentum. He finished 21st there in March but will be expecting more in the return visit. 

DOWNGRADE

Austin Dillon - A shortened race and differing pit strategy put Dillon in position to capitalize late in Sunday's race. With the remaining miles dwindling Dillon was pressuring leader Justin Haley when Dillon took it too far and hammered the outside wall. The damage broke the No. 3's left-front and Dillon was forced out of the running after tasting a potential road course win. Dillon's prior best road course finish was 10th twice, but his exuberance and the tough conditions got the better of him Sunday and he failed to improve upon that. Any top-10 finish Sunday would have been an outperformance of expectations for him but the mistake threw away a sorely needed top-five finish. Things could get better for him this coming week at Atlanta, though. Dillon remains one of the stronger drivers in the draft and Atlanta's new configuration plays to that strength. He finished 20th in the March race and has a best finish at the track of sixth.

Martin Truex Jr. - After returning to the top of the order on a road course at Sonoma, Truex was expected to be one of the contenders for the victory Sunday at Chicago. Despite running in the top 10 in the first two stages, the wheels came off his charge in the final segment. Truex began running afoul of the wet and dry conditions and went for several spins, making contact with various objects multiple times. His multiple late-race mistakes may have been the result of the team feeling behind on their strategy after NASCAR shortened the race. Crew chief James Small expressed his frustration at NASCAR's decision, basically saying the team didn't have enough time to react to the strategy changes necessary after the distance was sashed. When the dust settled, Truex was classified in the 32nd position. While there is undoubtedly frustration, the No. 19 squad still has two 2023 victories and is preparing for the playoffs. 

Alex Bowman - Bowman's race Sunday afternoon did not go according to plan. The Hendrick Motorsports driver put his car 13th on the grid in qualifying and was looking reasonably competitive ahead of the race. The afternoon never played into his hands, though. He spent his race stuck in traffic and was caught up in the many accidents triggered by the challenging conditions. After contact on track he found himself on pit road with the hood open and the crew working on the engine. Shortly after returning to the track he was stopped in a plume of smoke, and his race was over. Without a win, and missing some races due to injury, Bowman is still fighting to climb the championship standings. Heading to Atlanta he sits 20th, 26 points out of the playoff positions. A victory would get him in, but he could still get the job done on points, too. He'll need better weekends than Chicago to do that, though.

Kevin Harvick – Harvick's eventful Chicago weekend ended with his second finish outside of the top 20 in a row. Two finishes don't make a trend, but the poor results are against his prior run of form. The former champion was off most of the weekend and was forced to a back-up car after crashing during qualifying. Things didn't get better for him in the race. Multiple incidents of contact and spinning kept him from mounting any serious charge at the top of the order throughout the race distance. He missed out on stage points and finished toward the end of the lead lap. The coming week's visit to Atlanta will be a sentimental one, too. The track is the site of his first series win, and he has gone on to win two other times at the track. He led one lap there in March before crashing out and finishing 33rd.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Justin Haley - Late in Sunday's race, Haley found himself in the lead with the laps counting down. Unfortunately, that enviable position came with a charging Supercars champion on fresher tires hounding his rear bumper. Strategy and impressive skill in tricky conditions put Haley in a race-winning position, though. Those circumstances don't come often for this team and Haley gave it all he had to hold back Van Gisbergen without throwing it away, which would have been very easy to do given the slippery track. He wasn't able to fend off the charge, but the second-place finish he earned was his best of the season and best since winning the rain-shortened race at Daytona in 2019. Haley sits 21st in the championship standings and is 45 points behind 16th with eight regular season races remaining. Atlanta is another track he could grab a top finish, too. He finished seventh at the track last fall and typically performs well in the draft.