NASCAR Barometer: AJ Allmendinger Wins at the ROVAL

While the focus might have been on the championship playoff eliminations, AJ Allmendinger stole the show and put together an ideal race in Sunday's Bank of America ROVAL 400. His Kaulig Racing team made all the right strategy calls while Allmendinger did his job on track to take the lead in the final stages of the race to bring home his first series win since returning to the NASCAR Cup Series as a full-time driver. In do so, Allmendinger became the first non-playoff driver to win a playoff race this season, and kept the other playoff contenders from winning their way into the penultimate round of eliminations. As a result, Brad Keselowski, Ross Chastain, Bubba Wallace, and Kyle Busch all exited the championship battle and will turn their attention to race wins for the remainder of the season.

The final three-race elimination round kicks off this coming week at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. It will be the second race of the season at the track, and William Byron was the one who won it. He returns to the track this time atop the reset playoff standings, fighting to be one of the final four drivers to race for the 2023 title at Phoenix. The season is racing toward its climax and Byron, along with the other seven layoff competitors, are pushing to ensure they are the last one standing. 

UPGRADE

AJ Allmendinger - Allmendinger captured his third Cup Series victory and his first at Charlotte's ROVAL with an inch-perfect performance. The Kaulig Racing driver started sixth and took the lead for the first time on lap 58. He went on to lead 46 of the remaining 51 laps, keeping playoff contenders William Byron behind in the final miles to take the checkered flag. Road course wins were the reason this team brought Allmendinger back to the top series, and that is exactly what he delivered Sunday. Unfortunately, the win didn't come early enough in the season to earn them a spot in playoffs, but Allmendinger was the first non-playoff driver to win a playoff race this season. The victory will be a big boost to the team as they continue growing their Cup Series experience, and oval wins may not be too far away either. The driver and team pairing won together at Las Vegas in the Xfinity Series in 2021. 

William Byron - The best way to ensure readiness for the next round of competition in the Cup Series is to not let up and carry your momentum forward. That is exactly what William Byron and team did this latest round. After winning at Texas to guarantee advancing, he went on to finish second in the other two races of the round, including Sunday's road course affair. Byron qualified 14th for that race, but made the right strategy calls to move forward and pressure for the lead in the final laps. His efforts earned him a five-point gap to Martin Truex Jr. at the top of the reset points standings, and his focus now will be on wrapping up a spot in the championship decider as quickly as possible. He should feel confident of doing that, too. Byron won at Las Vegas in March and has been the best driver since the playoffs began. All sights are set on his first series championship.

Tyler Reddick - Reddick flexed his road-course prowess again at Charlotte. The 23XI Racing driver qualified on pole and opened the race by leading 27 laps to win the first stage, earning a bonus playoff point for his effort. The stage win meant he lost track position to those that flipped the stage by pitting earlier, but Reddick fought back to claim more stage points in the second segment, too. Despite not working his way back into the lead, Reddick held tough and finished sixth, which was enough to earn his spot in the next round of elimination races. He enters this round seventh in the revised standings just eight points behind the top four. Las Vegas is the first chance for him to move forward, and he has three top-10 finishes from his last four races at the track. Reddick led three laps there earlier this season and 32 laps in last fall's stop. 

Chris Buescher - Not many would have expected Buescher to be one of the final eight championship contenders, but that honor is deserving after the season he has had. Sunday's seventh-place finish was in line with that success and was enough to keep him in the championship battle. With three wins on the season, he starts this final elimination round just outside of the top four in the playoff standings and only three points behind Kyle Larson in fourth. Buescher is making the most of his team's improvement and he'll have to continue doing so to be one of the final four championship contenders. At Las Vegas he has one top-10 from 13 career starts. He finished 21st in the March race earlier this season. While he isn't one of the top choices to be among the final four, but Buescher has been delivering surprises in 2023. 

DOWNGRADE

Kyle Busch - After two disappointing results to start the round, it was always going to be an uphill battle for Busch to make his way into the next round of elimination races. His championship effort came to an end Sunday at Charlotte despite a third-place finish. Not enough other factors combined to make that result enough, and Busch will now turn his attention to assessing the shortcomings of 2023 in order to be a more formidable force in 2024. More race wins this season aren't off the table either, though. Sunday's third-pace finish was Busch's first top-five since Richmond and second top-10 from the last five races. He is a former winner at Las Vegas and had a streak of four consecutive to-five finishes at the track going for him until his 14th-place finish at the track in March.

Brad Keselowski - Keselowski needed some good fortune to keep his championship drive alive, but things didn't come together for him Sunday. He started deep in the field and failed to score any stage points. A pit infraction made things doubly difficult, and the race ended with him having gained just one spot to finish 18th. Keselowski isn't known as a road course racer, and the chances of him getting the combination of results he needed to advance didn't materialize. Keselowski the owner still has teammate Chris Buescher in the championship fight, but Keselowski the driver will now shift his focus to scoring his first points victory for the team that bears his name. He does have three Las Vegas victories to his credit, and while this was a year of improvement for him and the team, Keselowski's championship hopes are now extinguished. 

Ross Chastain - A top-10 finish Sunday at Charlotte, Chastain's best yet at the track, was not enough to keep him in the playoff battle. He finished second at Texas to start the round but then crashed early at Talladega. Those results set up a situation at Charlotte where he needed more than he got. Despite stage points in both segments, and the top-10 finish, it wasn't enough to see him through to the next round. Chastain, like others before him, will spend the rest of this season hunting wins. First up on that list is Las Vegas, where he has two top-10 finishes from 10 series starts. Both of those top-10s came last season when he also led a combined total of 151 laps. Chastain wasn't able to reach the heights of success he achieved last season, but his 2023 season also wasn't a failure. Improvement is the name of the game, and this team will be solely focused on that from now until 2024.

Denny Hamlin - Sunday's last-place finish at Charlotte may not matter much to Hamlin in the playoff standings, but the terrible afternoon doesn't exactly give him a head full of confidence heading into the next round. Hamlin suffered multiple issues in Sunday's race, ultimately colliding with other cars and sustaining enough damage that the team was unable to affect repairs. It should have been a race Hamlin could have taken a top-10 finish from, especially considering he qualified ninth. The stage points he earned in the second segment were enough to put him through to the next round, though. Hamlin now sits third in the reset playoff standings, but Sunday's 37th-place finish was his worst of the season and first outside of the top 30 since Sonoma. Las Vegas should be a better venue for him, though. He won there 2021 and led 11 laps there earlier this season.

Austin Cindric - Cindric's woes continued Sunday at Charlotte. The race should have been an opportunity for him to outperform his recent trends, but a spin and a generally uncompetitive afternoon left him with another finish outside of the top 20. Sunday's result was his fourth finish of 25th or lower from the last five races, and it came on a track he generally outperforms at. It was announced that Cindric will return to Team Penske for the 2024 season, and his hard work to get over this disappointing season needs to begin now. There might be some cause for optimism, though. Cindric scored his best series finish at Las Vegas earlier this season with a sixth-place finish. He also led eight laps there in last year's fall race. With just four top-10 finishes so far this season, Cindric will be pushing for more to take some positivity into the winter development cycle.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Ty Gibbs - Road course racing was one of Gibbs' strengths in the Xfinity Series, and that skill came to the front again this past week at Charlotte. Gibbs first qualified inside the top 10 and went on to score stage points in the first segment. He then fought through track position in the second stage to work his way back into the top 10 for the finish. He pushed hard to challenge for the lead but ended up slipping back a few places to finish fourth. The finish was his best of the season so far and his fourth top-five. His efforts also put him 18th in the standings, behind only the playoff drivers and Chase Elliott. By all accounts, this has been a successful rookie season for Gibbs. Last week's top finish should be a boost for Las Vegas, too. He qualified fourth there in the spring before finishing 22nd.