This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
The F1 season largely went as expected in the opening race, with Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez turning in a relatively dominant performance at Bahrain. It's still too early to draw sweeping conclusions, but the running order – particularly at the top – looked quite similar to 2023. One exception was Alpine, which arguably had the worst pace of any team after living solidly in the midfield for the last few seasons. We didn't see the full results, but one team that looks to have the potential to overachieve relative to expectation is Haas. This weekend, F1 is in Saudi Arabia on a street course, which offers quite a contrast to what we saw in Bahrain.
Meanwhile, the NASCAR season continues on, and we're onto the second non-superspeedway race on the schedule. We saw Kyle Larson dominate Pennzoil 400 for large portions of the race last weekend en route to victory, and Hendrick Motorsports has now won two of the first three races this season. Chevrolet has been the winning manufacturer in all three races.
With those results in mind, it's time to turn our focus to the United Rentals Worker 500 at Phoenix Raceway this weekend. It's an intermediate track for the second straight weekend, though it offers a different layout as a 1-mile tri-oval track. In addition to the race this weekend, Phoenix hosts NASCAR's championship race in the fall, which adds an extra level of intrigue to the performance of the top contenders this weekend. Let's get to some picks.
Saudi Arabian Grand Prix
Fernando Alonso – over 10.5 points (fourth place or better)
Alonso has qualified quite well for both races, including a fourth place start in Saturday's race. He'll need to maintain that track position to cash the over, something he failed to do at Bahrain. However, passing is more difficult at Saudi Arabia and Alonso also had an excellent run at the same track last year with a podium finish. This is a race for him to take advantage of one Ferrari all but of the running for a podium spot due to the absence of Carlos Sainz Jr.
Nico Hulkenberg – over 1.0 overtaking points
Hulkenberg will start 15th on the grid, but he very likely had better pace before the power on his car cut out in the middle of Q2. Positively, he should find it easier to gain positions once the reason begins and he'll also have the chance to beat teammate Kevin Magnussen (worth an extra half point, or lost point if he fails to overtake). Hulkenberg beat Magnussen in 13 of 22 races last season, and his poor finish last week was due to a collision he caused at Turn 1.
United Rental Workers 500
William Byron – over 33.5 points (top-seven finish)
One conclusion that seems safe to make at this point is that Hendrick Motorsports is particularly quick. That's not exactly going out on a limb, but now that we're in the heart of the season in terms of track style, always having one of their drivers on your PrizePicks card is a good idea. Kyle Larson was quite impressive last week and has his own strong track record at Phoenix, but Byron's projection makes him stand out. A top-seven finish isn't easy, but Byron has done better in three consecutive races at Phoenix. He didn't unload quickly at practice, but he ran a limited number of laps and we saw both Larson and Chase Elliott improve their pace on long runs. He may not qualify well as a result, but he should move up the field quickly during the race.
Ryan Blaney – over 36.5 points (top-four finish)
Given that this is the track where Blaney secured the championship last season, we know he can get the job done in Phoenix. He also has a pristine record at the track, finishing inside the top four in each of the last five races. In addition, Blaney has shown the ability to avoid the big mistakes and inconsistency that had plagued him in previous seasons early on in 2024. He's finished inside the top five in two of three races this season and was crashed out of Daytona through no fault of his own.
Christopher Bell – under 36.5 points (fifth or worse with no stage wins)
Bell's history at Phoenix and most one-mile tracks isn't all that spectacular, at least relative to this cost. At the specific track, his best finish is sixth and his average finish is 16th (influenced by his DNF in the championship race last season). It's a little uncomfortable betting on him to fail because he's one of the more talented drivers in the field, and he also had the best 15, 20, 25 and 30-lap averages in practice Friday. I'm banking on the fact that he could have strong form and still fall short of this extremely high bar.
Kyle Busch – under 31.5 points (11th or worse with no stage win)
Busch hasn't had a particularly impressive start to the season, with his average start being 19.3 and average finish 13.7. Exactly how that number has come about is particularly important and the logic behind this pick, as Busch has regularly found himself moving to the top of the field, only to have an unforced error undo his efforts. Specifically, he's received four penalties on pit road three races and has an ongoing revolving door among his pit crew. Eventually, things will get cleaned up, but until we see it, I'm willing to pick against him.
